NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

[The Rube]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

The Vikings have no reason to go after Kolb unless it's for next to nothing. I don't care about his potential they need to draft a QB, let him compete with Webb and bring in a cheap veteran for justincase. It may not be ideal but wth is at this point? The Vikings have languished at QB for nearly 2 decades save a few bright years from Cunningham, Culpepper and Favre and even if it requires 1 rebuilding year the NFL has proven that savvy GM leadership can quickly turnaround an NFL team quickly if coupled with competent coaching. People whining about 'window of opportunity' fail to see the forrest for the trees. imho they are better off sucking it up for one year worst case scenario and reloading for the next year under the proper leadership if they draft right.

Then who? Honestly? Kolb has youth, somewhat experience, and a possible franchise-mode. You get a rookie, you lack experience. You get a guy who's 30-35? You lack longevity (in theory). Lightning in a bottle is rare. So with what the Vikes have, you go with the odds. The odds say Kolb.

 

[Handyman]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

The Vikings have no reason to go after Kolb unless it's for next to nothing. I don't care about his potential they need to draft a QB, let him compete with Webb and bring in a cheap veteran for justincase. It may not be ideal but wth is at this point? The Vikings have languished at QB for nearly 2 decades save a few bright years from Cunningham, Culpepper and Favre and even if it requires 1 rebuilding year the NFL has proven that savvy GM leadership can quickly turnaround an NFL team quickly if coupled with competent coaching. People whining about 'window of opportunity' fail to see the forrest for the trees. imho they are better off sucking it up for one year worst case scenario and reloading for the next year under the proper leadership if they draft right.

Sorry but I just dont see them getting a great QB at 12 or I would be with you.

 

[Slap Shot]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

Sorry but I just dont see them getting a great QB at 12 or I would be with you.

The QB of the future doesn't have to come at 12 - they can trade up/down or get a gem in the 2nd or whatever.

Brent, your post signifies you don't get my point. Lightning in a bottle or not, I don't care who else they bring in I am sick and tired of the retreads they repeatedly trot in for 1-2 year experiments. The point is draft for the future and hope it turns out. Maybe it doesn't, but how many SB champions the past 20 years came from a recyled QB over the age of 30? It works out or it doesn't, but I'd at least be excited by the effort/potential.

 

[Handyman]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

The QB of the future doesn't have to come at 12 - they can trade up/down or get a gem in the 2nd or whatever.

Brent, your post signifies you don't get my point. Lightning in a bottle or not, I don't care who else they bring in I am sick and tired of the retreads they repeatedly trot in for 1-2 year experiments. The point is draft for the future and hope it turns out. Maybe it doesn't, but how many SB champions the past 20 years came from a recyled QB over the age of 30? It works out or it doesn't, but I'd at least be excited by the effort/potential.

But Kolb is 26 and is not a retread which is why we were discussing him. If we were talking McNabb you would have a point but the whole point is that Kolb ISNT one of those guys the Vikes usually go after. What is the difference between taking a chance on him being your future as opposed to drafting a QB?

 

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

Come on now. There's still a 65% chance that Favre comes back.

For my own sake, I hope he does.

 

[Slap Shot]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

What is the difference between taking a chance on him being your future as opposed to drafting a QB?

A potential QB of the future might only cost 1 pick. Kolb?

But considering your proposal let me rephrase - how many SB champions the past 20 years came with a QB acquired/traded after the age of 26?

 

[Handyman]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

Come on now. There's still a 65% chance that Favre comes back.

For my own sake, I hope he does.

Oh he is coming back, but he wont be here my guess is Miami.

And Slap Shot Drew Brees was 26 when he went to the Saints. (give or take a few months) Not a fair comparison but you asked. Trent Dilfer was 28 when he signed with Baltimore. Matt Hasselbeck was 26 when he signed with Seattle and he went to the Super Bowl but lost. Kurt Warner was 27 when he went to the Rams (and won a Super Bowl and lost 1 the next year) and he was in his mid 30s when he signed with the Cardinals and later took them to the SB and lost. Chris Chandler was 32 when he went to Atlanta in 1997 and we know what he did there a year later. (lost in the Super Bowl) Kerry Collins was 27 when he joined the Giants in 1999 and we know what he did there. (lost in the Super Bowl) That is what I could find in 10 minutes on Wiki.

BTW just to prove a point...here is a list of all the 1st round QBs that have won the Super Bowl...EVER:

1. Joe Namath - Super Bowl III
2. Bob Griese - Super Bowl VII and VIII
3. Terry Bradshaw - Super Bowls IX, X, XII, and XIII
4. Jim Plunkett - Super Bowls XV and XVIII
5. Jim McMahon - Super Bowl XX
6. Phil Simms - Super Bowl XXI
7. Doug Williams - Super Bowl XXII
8. Troy Aikman - Super Bowls XXVII, XXVIII, and XXX
9. Steve Young - Super Bowl XXIX
10. John Elway - Super Bowls XXXII and XXXIII
11. Trent Dilfer - Super Bowl XXXV
12. Ben Roethlisberger - Super Bowl XL and XLIII
13. Peyton Manning - Super Bowl XLI
14. Eli Manning - Super Bowl XLII

So it doesnt seem that much more likely that you will win the Super Bowl by drafting a QB in the first round either. Hell the last 3 combined have one more than Tom Brady who was drafted #199. (if that list is correct I got it from Ask.com) Notable names that won but werent drafted first round Roger Staubach, Joe Montana, Mark Rypien, Jeff Hostetler...I could go on. Drafting a QB is a crapshoot.

 

[jmh]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

Oh he is coming back, but he wont be here my guess is Miami.

And Slap Shot Drew Brees was 26 when he went to the Saints. (give or take a few months) Not a fair comparison but you asked. Trent Dilfer was 28 when he signed with Baltimore. Matt Hasselbeck was 26 when he signed with Seattle and he went to the Super Bowl but lost. Kurt Warner was 27 when he went to the Rams (and won a Super Bowl and lost 1 the next year) and he was in his mid 30s when he signed with the Cardinals and later took them to the SB and lost. Chris Chandler was 32 when he went to Atlanta in 1997 and we know what he did there a year later. (lost in the Super Bowl) Kerry Collins was 27 when he joined the Giants in 1999 and we know what he did there. (lost in the Super Bowl) That is what I could find in 10 minutes on Wiki.

BTW just to prove a point...here is a list of all the 1st round QBs that have won the Super Bowl...EVER:

1. Joe Namath - Super Bowl III
2. Bob Griese - Super Bowl VII and VIII
3. Terry Bradshaw - Super Bowls IX, X, XII, and XIII
4. Jim Plunkett - Super Bowls XV and XVIII
5. Jim McMahon - Super Bowl XX
6. Phil Simms - Super Bowl XXI
7. Doug Williams - Super Bowl XXII
8. Troy Aikman - Super Bowls XXVII, XXVIII, and XXX
9. Steve Young - Super Bowl XXIX
10. John Elway - Super Bowls XXXII and XXXIII
11. Trent Dilfer - Super Bowl XXXV
12. Ben Roethlisberger - Super Bowl XL and XLIII
13. Peyton Manning - Super Bowl XLI
14. Eli Manning - Super Bowl XLII

So it doesnt seem that much more likely that you will win the Super Bowl by drafting a QB in the first round either. Hell the last 3 combined have one more than Tom Brady who was drafted #199. (if that list is correct I got it from Ask.com) Notable names that won but werent drafted first round Roger Staubach, Joe Montana, Mark Rypien, Jeff Hostetler...I could go on. Drafting a QB is a crapshoot.

While it's 14 unique QBs, that's also more than half of the Super Bowls. Also, Hostetler was a backup for a team that got into the playoffs by going 12-2 with a first-round QB (Simms) before he got hurt, and in any case were winning because of their defense. And Staubach was a special case, because as a Heisman/Maxwell Award winner he probably would've been taken way higher if not for the fact that teams that were looking at him knew he would have to serve a tour in the Navy, including potentially combat service in Vietnam, before he would play for them. But even if those two weren't the case, I think you've still proven the opposite of your point.

 

[The Rube]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

While it's 14 unique QBs, that's also more than half of the Super Bowls. Also, Hostetler was a backup for a team that got into the playoffs by going 12-2 with a first-round QB (Simms) before he got hurt, and in any case were winning because of their defense. And Staubach was a special case, because as a Heisman/Maxwell Award winner he probably would've been taken way higher if not for the fact that teams that were looking at him knew he would have to serve a tour in the Navy, including potentially combat service in Vietnam, before he would play for them. But even if those two weren't the case, I think you've still proven the opposite of your point.

How many first round "studs" have completely flopped? I'm talking the Ryan Leafs, Akili Smiths, etc of the world.

 

[bronconick]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

How many first round "studs" have completely flopped? I'm talking the Ryan Leafs, Akili Smiths, etc of the world.

That's a different comparison to what QB's have won Super Bowls. You can be a non-flop without winning a title.

1992- David Klingler, Dave Brown, Tommy Maddox
1993- Drew Bledsoe, Rick Mirer
1994- Heath Shuler, Trent Dilfer
1995- Steve McNair, Kerry Collins
1997- Jim Druckenmiller
1998- Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf
1999- Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown
2000- Chad Pennington
2001- Michael Vick
2002- David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2003- Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman
2004- Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Losman
2005- Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell
2006- Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
2007- JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn
2008- Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2009- Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2010- Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow

 

[Kepler]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

Come on now. There's still a 65% chance that Favre comes back.

That has Danny Snyder written all over it.*

* Dear Mr. Snyder. This is just a sick joke. Please do not take to heart. Sincerely, Everyone

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

A Holmgren-Favre reunion in Cleveland?

 

[Handyman]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

While it's 14 unique QBs, that's also more than half of the Super Bowls. Also, Hostetler was a backup for a team that got into the playoffs by going 12-2 with a first-round QB (Simms) before he got hurt, and in any case were winning because of their defense. And Staubach was a special case, because as a Heisman/Maxwell Award winner he probably would've been taken way higher if not for the fact that teams that were looking at him knew he would have to serve a tour in the Navy, including potentially combat service in Vietnam, before he would play for them. But even if those two weren't the case, I think you've still proven the opposite of your point.

How, Slap Shot made it sound like drafting a stud QB was infinitely better than signing a guy in his mid to late 20's Using the super Bowl as emphasis. There have been 44 Super Bowls and 23 of them were won by top draft choices that is one more than half. Statistically speaking that puts it at even money. Even if you take Hostetler (who I only mentioned because I remembered him offhand) and give that to Simms that still is barely more than half. Some of the best QBs of all time were not deemed studs when they were drafted and came in later rounds. Drafting a QB early is a crapshoot and does not put you in better position to win the Super Bowl was my point, and the numbers speak to that. Plus, if you can take away Hostetler I should be able to take away Dilfer since he stunk that year and was not the starter some of the time and was often outscored by his D anyways

I wasnt going to get into what Brent was saying because that is just too easy an argument to win. There are way more busts than studs when it comes to the draft. For every Peyton Manning there is 3 Ryan Leifs.

I never thought about it but Favre to Cleveland makes sense...if they win 6 games they will name the stadium after him.

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

I put $20 on the Saints last weekend at 10-1. Good bet or bad?

 

[Handyman]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

I dont think they will win, but 10-1 is a good return on a defending a champ.

 

[jmh]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

How, Slap Shot made it sound like drafting a stud QB was infinitely better than signing a guy in his mid to late 20's Using the super Bowl as emphasis. There have been 44 Super Bowls and 23 of them were won by top draft choices that is one more than half. Statistically speaking that puts it at even money. Even if you take Hostetler (who I only mentioned because I remembered him offhand) and give that to Simms that still is barely more than half. Some of the best QBs of all time were not deemed studs when they were drafted and came in later rounds. Drafting a QB early is a crapshoot and does not put you in better position to win the Super Bowl was my point, and the numbers speak to that. Plus, if you can take away Hostetler I should be able to take away Dilfer since he stunk that year and was not the starter some of the time and was often outscored by his D anyways

I wasnt going to get into what Brent was saying because that is just too easy an argument to win. There are way more busts than studs when it comes to the draft. For every Peyton Manning there is 3 Ryan Leifs.

Sure, there are plenty of first round QB busts, there are busts at other positions too, that's just the nature of the draft and guys making the leap from college to pro. Nobody is saying drafting a QB in the top five picks of the draft guarantees anything. But the fact that more than half of the Super Bowls have been won by first round picks (leaving aside Staubach) would seem to suggest that it's a favorable thing to have - unless more than half of all QBs are also first round QBs, as well, anyway.

 

[Handyman]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

Its one more than half, sorry that just doesnt seem that significant. (I already said I would give you Hos but you have to give me Dilfer so it is a wash ) Arguably the two greatest QBS of all time were drafted in the 3rd or after. (Montana and Brady) Once again SS is saying drafting a QB is a better option than signing a guy later, if winning the SB is a 50/50 proposition while drafting a stud QB (and going along with the fact that I showed his contention to be false anyways by naming plenty of successful QBs that took teams to SBs after moving when 26 or older) then it is no more of a risk, and certainly hasnt proven to be a better option than signing someone.

Look at the argument I am making within the context of the conversation that was happening. I am saying that one is not inherently better than the other...both can work and both can fail. Drafting a QB can work and signing one can. That was the point. I threw in the list because SS wants the Vikes to draft a QB in the first round which means most likely trading up. Well if we have to give up picks for the honor of moving up to overpay for a QB who has never taken an NFL snap I would rather they pay less and get Kolb. Despite his assertions it is no worse an option.

 

[jmh]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

Its one more than half, sorry that just doesnt seem that significant. (I already said I would give you Hos but you have to give me Dilfer so it is a wash ) Arguably the two greatest QBS of all time were drafted in the 3rd or after. (Montana and Brady) Once again SS is saying drafting a QB is a better option than signing a guy later, if winning the SB is a 50/50 proposition while drafting a stud QB (and going along with the fact that I showed his contention to be false anyways by naming plenty of successful QBs that took teams to SBs after moving when 26 or older) then it is no more of a risk, and certainly hasnt proven to be a better option than signing someone.

OK, but those guys who listed... hardly a distinguished list, other than Warner. Dilfer was a game manager when he won the Super Bowl, Hasselbeck is crap, Chandler was crap, Collins is and was OK. Brees was just a massive brain fart by the Chargers for not realizing what they had (and, really, by the whole NFL for deciding he was too short to be an NFL QB). I think the point, really, is that *great* QBs rarely change teams in their prime, whether you got them early in the draft like Manning (Peyton, that is, Eli isn't what I'd call "great") or in the middle like Favre or late like Staubach. Maybe you'll find an effective game manager like Dilfer or Chandler (and if you just want a game manager to hand the ball to AP then you may as well just stick with Jackson), but guys like Brees or Warner who just fall into your lap are few and far between. Look, maybe Kolb will turn out to be really good, and maybe the Eagles don't realize this and will let him go for a reasonable cost anyway, but generally speaking if a team lets a QB go at that kind of an age, it's because they've figured out that the guy isn't that good, and especially with a guy who knows QBs pretty well like Reid, I'm inclined to believe that he's probably right if that's what he's concluded.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

More interesting to me than the stat that ~half the super bowls have been won by a first round quarterback...a whopping 75% were won by a starting quarterback that was drafted by the team that won. The funniest thing I noticed in this research is that Tampa Bay has drafted 3 super bowl winning quarterbacks yet didn't draft the one that actually won it for them.

Here are the 10 Quarterbacks to win on a different team than the one that drafted them:

Jim Plunkett
Steve Young
Len Dawson
Trent Dilfer
Doug Williams
Drew Brees
Brett Favre
Joe Theismann
Brad Johnson
Kurt Warner

 

[jmh]

Re: NFL 2010: $25K Fine For Talking About Fines

Here are the 10 Quarterbacks to win on a different team than the one that drafted them:

...
Steve Young
...

Heh. Forgot about that. The Bucs are dumb.