New Poll Predictions for 2/1

[MCullen]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

I had a very tough time with the #15 spot as well.

In a perfect world, I think Fredonia should get it.

Sure they haven't really beat any great teams, but they have beaten the teams they should and many other teams in the country can't say that.

They've been pretty competitive in every one of their losses to minus the one to Plattsburgh. Four of your five losses to Oswego (2), Elmira, and Plattsburgh isn't too shabby at all.

Especially when the Blue Devils were very very close to Oswego both times and Elmira.

If I was voting, I'd put them in but I just don't think they'll get enough votes to get in. I think River Falls holds on but just barely.

Looking at Fredonia's schedule, it seems to me that they really messed up with the non-conference schedule. They played Lebanon Valley, Johnson & Wales, Western NE, and Westfield State (all in two game series). Westfield is at least decent, but the other three teams all stink (no way of getting around that). Honestly, this has to be one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the nation. Therefore, it's very possible that they're being penalized for that. With only 11 votes this week (up from five), they're nowhere close to being ranked.

Still, I like the fact that they've been very competitive in their losses. Especially considering the teams that they've lost to. No shame there. They're solidly in my top 15.

 My Guesses			| What Actually Happened
 1	Oswego			|  1	Oswego
 2	Norwich			|  2	Norwich
 3	St. Norbert		|  3	St. Norbert
 4	St. Scholastica		|  4	St. Scholastica
 5	Elmira			|  5	Plattsburgh
 6	Plattsburgh		|  6	Elmira
 7	Amherst			|  7	Amherst
 8	Williams		|  8	Gustavus Adolphus
 9	Middlebury		|  9	Williams
10	Hamline			| 10	Hamline
11	Gustavus Adolphus	| 10	Middlebury
12	Adrian			| 12	Adrian
13	Manhattanville		| 13	Manhattanville
14	Wentworth		| 14	UW-River Falls
15	?			| 15	Wentworth

As for my guesses, I didn't do too badly for my first time. I didn't expect Gustavus Adolphus to go up two spots, considering they didn't play last week. I was also surprised to see UW-River Falls staying in 14th. Maybe the western voters are forgiving them for losing to a strong St. Scholastica team. However, I would still pick Fredonia over River Falls any day. Then again, I do have the Falcons in my top 15. Well, not those Falcons.

Also, apologies to Augsburg, who I didn't include on my list of bubble teams. With a split against Hamline and positions outside the top 30 of teams ranked in KRACH and NU Prof's polls, I didn't think they were in contention for any votes.

Anyway. It will be interesting to see where everyone stacks up when the NCAA polls are released, whenever that is.

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

Looking at Fredonia's schedule, it seems to me that they really messed up with the non-conference schedule. They played Lebanon Valley, Johnson & Wales, Western NE, and Westfield State (all in two game series). Westfield is at least decent, but the other three teams all stink (no way of getting around that). Honestly, this has to be one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the nation. Therefore, it's very possible that they're being penalized for that. With only 11 votes this week (up from five), they're nowhere close to being ranked.

Still, I like the fact that they've been very competitive in their losses. Especially considering the teams that they've lost to. No shame there. They're solidly in my top 15.

 My Guesses			| What Actually Happened
 1	Oswego			|  1	Oswego
 2	Norwich			|  2	Norwich
 3	St. Norbert		|  3	St. Norbert
 4	St. Scholastica		|  4	St. Scholastica
 5	Elmira			|  5	Plattsburgh
 6	Plattsburgh		|  6	Elmira
 7	Amherst			|  7	Amherst
 8	Williams		|  8	Gustavus Adolphus
 9	Middlebury		|  9	Williams
10	Hamline			| 10	Hamline
11	Gustavus Adolphus	| 10	Middlebury
12	Adrian			| 12	Adrian
13	Manhattanville		| 13	Manhattanville
14	Wentworth		| 14	UW-River Falls
15	?			| 15	Wentworth

As for my guesses, I didn't do too badly for my first time. I didn't expect Gustavus Adolphus to go up two spots, considering they didn't play last week. I was also surprised to see UW-River Falls staying in 14th. Maybe the western voters are forgiving them for losing to a strong St. Scholastica team. However, I would still pick Fredonia over River Falls any day. Then again, I do have the Falcons in my top 15. Well, not those Falcons.

Also, apologies to Augsburg, who I didn't include on my list of bubble teams. With a split against Hamline and positions outside the top 30 of teams ranked in KRACH and NU Prof's polls, I didn't think they were in contention for any votes.

Anyway. It will be interesting to see where everyone stacks up when the NCAA polls are released, whenever that is.

Fredonia's SOS in the KRACH lists them 31st. Not awful. Plus it will get another boost when the Devils face Plattsburgh one more time.

 

[Frazier]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

I may be a rookie on this board, but having seen Oswego@Elmira, Elmira@Manhattanville, the Pathfinder Tournament, Adrian@Oswego and Plattsburgh@Oswego, I have some thoughts...

1) Leis spits out rebounds like a 5 yr old spits out broccoli
2) Elmira is every bit as good at the other two
3) Oswego is the best of the 3 - but by the slimest of margins
4) Whiteout was all that is great about D3 sports, gloves on fire and all...

broccoli line 1.

ranked #1. best line of the post
Classic Cracked me up

 

[jconnor]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

Am I way off or is Elmira's SOS going to take huge dive now?
One game left vs Hobart, not ranked.
Two games left vs Neumann, not ranked.
Two games left vs Manhattanville, who should not be ranked.

 

[Frazier]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

Fredonia's SOS in the KRACH lists them 31st. Not awful. Plus it will get another boost when the Devils face Plattsburgh one more time.

Thanks again for setting up this site P.J. and your accurate predictions. I didn't try my hand this week as I thought I would do a little research first.

Was just curious to find out how much of an advantage home ice is in Div III ice hockey and if it was reasonably consistent across conferences. Maybe this has already been done but thought I would share it in case anyone else thought it was interesting. Small N

TOTAL WINNING % Home vs Away 1/29/10
CONFERENCE Win% HOME Win% AWAY

ECAC EAST------- 52%----------43%
ECAC N.E.-------- 57%----------40%
MASCAC---------- 55%----------41%
MCHA ------------- 46%----------36%
MIAC-------------- 55%----------41%
NESCAC-----------66%----------49% !!!
SUNYAC-----------59%----------48%
ECAC WEST -------45%----------57% ???
NCHA --------------54%----------63% ???

ECAC W and the NCHA are oddly the two conferences that appear to have stronger winning % away. It is probably because their conferences are small and a couple of unexpected road wins disproportionately skews the home vs away win%. The NCHA wins 44% of conference home games compared with 56% away. It would be safe to say that teams in the NCHA currently appear to have a little better chance of obtaining a win when they are on the road.

NESCAC has the biggest advantage at home. It looks like they hardly ever play the same team twice. ECAC West and NCHA are small conferences and need to play each other a lot. I would guess that frequent play may reduce home ice advantage.

I was looking at the KRACH, for a system that would account for home ice advantage. Results changed my mind and I will stick with the tried and true but very arbitrary good win - sucky loss - just depends …ranking system. How else could you suitably compensate a NESCAC team for a quality road win while turning around and awarding similar credit to a NCHA team for a comparable home win.

PUZZLED ROOKIE

 

[one_to7]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

Am I way off or is Elmira's SOS going to take huge dive now?
One game left vs Hobart, not ranked.
Two games left vs Neumann, not ranked.
Two games left vs Manhattanville, who should not be ranked.

Who cares what they're ranked? All 3 teams are at .500 or better. M'ville will certainly jump up elmira's opp win %, and if all three can beat up on utica and leb valley, they should all finish with an above .500 win %.

Certainly not that shabby for SoS, I could name teams that'll take much bigger hits off the top of my head.

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

Who cares what they're ranked? All 3 teams are at .500 or better. M'ville will certainly jump up elmira's opp win %, and if all three can beat up on utica and leb valley, they should all finish with an above .500 win %.

Certainly not that shabby for SoS, I could name teams that'll take much bigger hits off the top of my head.

I think Scott is right on.

Elmira should finish right near the top or at the top of the SOS once again this weekend.

Plattsburgh and Oswego are both going to take nose dives with their remaining games. Oswego plays Brockport, Geneseo, Cortland, and Morrisville in their remaining four games. Only Brockport has a winning record at 11-9.

Plattsburgh plays Middlebury, Buffalo State, Fredonia, Morrisville, and Potsdam.

Middlebury and Fredonia will be good opponents but EC's two remaining games against Manhattanville for the most part cancel those out.

Morrisville and Buffalo State are 11-26-1 and Potsdam is 8-10-2.

EC's games against Neumann and Hobart are more impressive than those so EC should be able to pass Plattsburgh too.

Norwich has Middlebury and Williams left but other than that their opponents have a combined record of 28-36-10. So they'll dip too.

It'll be close but I think Elmira might close out the regular season #1 even with the down year for the ECAC West.

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

Sorry but,

vs. #1 Oswwgo
@ #1 Oswego
@ #8 Williams
@ #2 Norwich
@ #2 Norwich
@ #10 Middlebury
vs #10 Middlebury (neatrual)
@ #6 Elmira

That my friend is a pretty impressive resume....Add in the fact that the SUNYAC has done pretty well (even towards the bottom) against the ECAC West and that waters down the ECAC Wests overall records.

Maybe if you are going by the numbers Elmira might have a better SOS, but in reality I don't think their schedule comes close to this.

Also about the ECAC record against away teams....it also helps when Utica has played a total of 23 total non conference regular season games, and only FOUR have been away...sad...

 

[NUProf]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

Who cares what they're ranked? All 3 teams are at .500 or better. M'ville will certainly jump up elmira's opp win %, and if all three can beat up on utica and leb valley, they should all finish with an above .500 win %.

Certainly not that shabby for SoS, I could name teams that'll take much bigger hits off the top of my head.

It will help their OWP. The three teams taken together (giving a double weight to the teams they play twice) have a WP of about 63%. Elmira's OWP currently is close to 50%, so the 63% will raise their OWP

 

[The Real Georgia Peach]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

Well, I was right...it wasn't unanimous for Oswego.

 

[Dutchmen_04]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

Originally Posted by LakerEagleLover
I may be a rookie on this board, but having seen Oswego@Elmira, Elmira@Manhattanville, the Pathfinder Tournament, Adrian@Oswego and Plattsburgh@Oswego, I have some thoughts...

1) Leis spits out rebounds like a 5 yr old spits out broccoli
2) Elmira is every bit as good at the other two
3) Oswego is the best of the 3 - but by the slimest of margins
4) Whiteout was all that is great about D3 sports, gloves on fire and all...





did you happen to catch Morrisville @ Elmira? they might argue with #2...

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

Originally Posted by LakerEagleLover
I may be a rookie on this board, but having seen Oswego@Elmira, Elmira@Manhattanville, the Pathfinder Tournament, Adrian@Oswego and Plattsburgh@Oswego, I have some thoughts...

1) Leis spits out rebounds like a 5 yr old spits out broccoli
2) Elmira is every bit as good at the other two
3) Oswego is the best of the 3 - but by the slimest of margins
4) Whiteout was all that is great about D3 sports, gloves on fire and all...





did you happen to catch Morrisville @ Elmira? they might argue with #2...

Yea the same game where Elmira had just about as many shots on goal in the third period alone as Morrisville had the whole game. Please dude try harder next time...weak...

 

[Dutchmen_04]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

Yea the same game where Elmira had just about as many shots on goal in the third period alone as Morrisville had the whole game. Please dude try harder next time...weak...

still wasn't quite enough though, was it? 0-5 on the PP. tough afternoon.

point is Platty and Oswego didn't seem to have the same problem with them. Elmira have a good team? No doubt. "Every bit as good a team" - as previously posted? No dice.

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

still wasn't quite enough though, was it? 0-5 on the PP. tough afternoon.

point is M'ville and Oswego didn't seem to have the same problem with them. Elmira have a good team? No doubt. "Every bit as good a team" - as previously posted? No dice.

Yea I guess being the ONLY team so far in DIII to put a blemish on the #1 ranked Lakers for how many weeks now means nothing... Please dude, stop wasting space.

Once again you don't have to win a game to be a better team.....go back to your playstation.

BTW Morrisville outplayed M'ville in that 3-0 shutout and outshooting them... nice try...you'll get it someday...

Sat 10/24/2009 W Elmira 2 Oswego (nc) 1
Sat 01/09/2010 T Elmira 1 Plattsburgh (nc) 1 ot

 

[Dutchmen_04]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

Yea I guess being the ONLY team so far in DIII to put a blemish on the #1 ranked Lakers for how many weeks now means nothing... Please dude, stop wasting space.

Once again you don't have to win a game to be a better team.....go back to your playstation.

BTW Morrisville outplayed M'ville in that 3-0 shutout and outshooting them... nice try...you'll get it someday...

I was referring to Plattsburgh and not M'Ville - clearly a typo on my part. I think they have the edge on M'Ville for sure (and we will see 2 more times), but not a chance are they as good as platty or oswego.

your argument seems conflicted - does beating oswego make them a better team or not? too bad they don't play each other again in regular season - if they played 5 more times, i say oswego beats them 4 of 5. they just have the guns

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

Originally Posted by LakerEagleLover
I may be a rookie on this board, but having seen Oswego@Elmira, Elmira@Manhattanville, the Pathfinder Tournament, Adrian@Oswego and Plattsburgh@Oswego, I have some thoughts...

1) Leis spits out rebounds like a 5 yr old spits out broccoli
2) Elmira is every bit as good at the other two
3) Oswego is the best of the 3 - but by the slimest of margins
4) Whiteout was all that is great about D3 sports, gloves on fire and all...





did you happen to catch Morrisville @ Elmira? they might argue with #2...

Elmira, who is the only team to beat #1 Oswego.

Elmira, who fought hard to earn a 1-1 tie to #5 Plattsburgh.

Elmira, who hasn't even been touched in the ECAC-W, a conference that has put 3 teams in the tournament 2 years running.

Elmira, who, other than 2 losses to #1 Oswego, the aforementioned tie to #5 Plattsburgh, and the upset to which you refer, hasn't been touched by ANYBODY.

Yeah... they're no good...
Remember, any team can beat any other team on any given day. The better team does not always win. It's been a LONG time since anybody put up a 0 on the loss column. Norwich most certainly won't do it this year. One loss shows nothing. 1-2-1 against top 5 teams shows me much more than the 1 loss. Coming back the next night and embarrassing the little ponies in their own Iceplex shows me more than the one loss.

Besides, it's been said time and time again that Relkoff is a quality goalie who can steal a game away, and if put on a team with a decent defense would be a top goalie in the SUNYAC.

But go on, believe what you will.

 

[Dutchmen_04]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

Elmira, who is the only team to beat #1 Oswego.

Elmira, who fought hard to earn a 1-1 tie to #5 Plattsburgh.

Elmira, who hasn't even been touched in the ECAC-W, a conference that has put 3 teams in the tournament 2 years running.

Elmira, who, other than 2 losses to #1 Oswego, the aforementioned tie to #5 Plattsburgh, and the upset to which you refer, hasn't been touched by ANYBODY.

Yeah... they're no good...
Remember, any team can beat any other team on any given day. The better team does not always win. It's been a LONG time since anybody put up a 0 on the loss column. Norwich most certainly won't do it this year. One loss shows nothing. 1-2-1 against top 5 teams shows me much more than the 1 loss. Coming back the next night and embarrassing the little ponies in their own Iceplex shows me more than the one loss.

Besides, it's been said time and time again that Relkoff is a quality goalie who can steal a game away, and if put on a team with a decent defense would be a top goalie in the SUNYAC.

But go on, believe what you will.

hmmmmm, at any point did I ever say Elmira was no good, or did not have a good team? certainly not. they have an excellent team, and are having a very good season. that can't be argued.

that aside, everything else you said is valid. i just don't think they are every bit as good a team as the other 2. that's it, that's all.

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

hmmmmm, at any point did I ever say Elmira was no good, or did not have a good team? certainly not. they have an excellent team, and are having a very good season. that can't be argued.

that aside, everything else you said is valid. i just don't think they are every bit as good a team as the other 2. that's it, that's all.

But I do believe Elmira is every bit as good as the other two. Yes, I have publicly said that Oswego is undoubtedly the best in the nation at the moment. Yes, I have said that Norwich is undoubtedly right behind them. But, they are not untouchable. I believe that if you put them in a 7 game playoff series against the Lakers, the Lakers would take it in 6 or 7, but no less. That leaves plenty of room for a lucky bounce to put it in Elmira's favor.

 

[93GreatLaker]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

Yea I guess being the ONLY team so far in DIII to put a blemish on the #1 ranked Lakers for how many weeks now means nothing... Please dude, stop wasting space.

Sat 10/24/2009 W Elmira 2 Oswego (nc) 1
Sat 01/09/2010 T Elmira 1 Plattsburgh (nc) 1 ot

Funny how Elmira only gets some love after they tie Plattsburgh. Earlier in the season when Elmira was used as a measuring stick for Oswego the jury was still out

The jury is still out on Elmira for one thing...the whole ECAC West as a whole is in question this season.....I don't think you will see maybe 1 ECAC West team in the top 15 by seasons end, and that will be more based on reputation.

Whats Elmira got? A 4-3 win over Fredonia, a 1-2 Loss to Morrisville, a 5-2 combined weekend sweep over a mediocre Hobart team .

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/1

Dutchmen,

Elmira may not have the horses that Oswego does but they do have the superior goaltender in Casey Tuttle.

Tuttle is a top five goaltender in the country and has at times singlehandedly kept Elmira in games and helped them to wins over his four year career.

He was a big reason why Elmira put that lone blemish in Oswego's record in October and in a one game winner take all can definitely put a team on his back and lead them to the win.

You know what they say offenses...they sell tickets.

defense wins championships.

Is Oswego the favorite to win the NC? yeah I'd say they would probably have to be at this point. But wasn't Plattsburgh the hands down best team in the country last year on paper and look what happened to them.

I hope it doesn't happen to this year's Lakers team, but I honestly have this weird feeling that Elmira or Adrian is going to beat them in the Quarterfinals.