New Poll Predictions for 11/16

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

A closer league is NOT the same thing as a better league, but hey, thanks for playing.

Have the teams at the bottom gotten better? Yes. Have the teams in the middle gotten better? No, if anything they're a decent amount worse this year than in years past.

So middle teams like Geneseo and Fredonia havn't gotten much better? Really...so in the past I dont know say 5 years...besides Plattsburgh who has won SUNYAC titles? Not Oswego...Geneseo '05 and '06, and Fredonia '07. The last time Fredonia won a Championship was 1995, while Genese was 1986.....Yea I would say they got better.Thanks for playing

Say you have a 100 pt scale for rating teams. One team is a 60 while the other is a 20, so you're basically "three times" better than them. Over the course of a few years you move up to an 80 while the other team moves up to 40. The gap is just as big, but now you're two times better instead of three. Did you get worse? Nope. Is the gap just as big? Yep. Is it tougher to beat the teams, while still being able to dominate them? Yes.

You're catching on, this is what we are debating. Years ago when you went into Brockport and Buff State it wasn't IF you were going to win, but how much. Now, you still will probably win, but it will be much harder.

You're honestly claiming that a shift of 4 wins over a 6 year period is proof that the top two aren't absolutely dominating the rest of the league?

The question is not if the top two teams are "dominating" ....yes...the winning % of those 3 teams is huge. But....from 2003-2004 Cortland had more wins vs Plattsburgh then Oswego has had in the past 12 games..... Plattsburgh had a streak where they went 53-2-2 vs ALL SUNYAC...so yes, losing 4 games against the lower end SUNYAC teams is huge. Also point out all of the 10+ goal games against those teams once again...10 times over the first 8 years, and only ONCE over the last 7 years.

And check back at the end of the season, and see if that hobart tie is still that significant.

Correct, but 10 years ago Buff State wouldn't even have been even close against a top 10 team. THAT is significant....

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

My apologies if I screwed something up here, but I think I've got everything:

07-08 - Plattsburgh (NCAA Runner-up)
06-07 - Norwich (NCAA Quarters)
05-06 - Middlebury (National Champs)
04-05 - Norwich (Failed to make NCAAs) - it's worth noting here, however, that Norwich actually tied (win via shootout) Middlebury, the eventual national champs
03-04 - Middlebury (National Champs)
02-03 - Norwich (National Champs)
01-02 - Norwich (NCAA Runner-up)
00-01 - Middlebury (NCAA Quarters)
99-00 - Plattsburgh (NCAA Semis)
00-99 - Norwich (NCAA Semis)

So yeah, pretty good track record. And of course, simply by virtue of the permanent participants, 7 of the 10 Primelinks in that span included the eventual NC whether or not they won the Primelink itself.

e: This list also adds some legitimacy to Russell's argument, as 7 of the 10 champs here advanced to the NCAA semis or further and could therefore be considered "top four" for their seasons, at least as far as the hardware is concerned.

Might also add that 2 or more of the teams made it into the NCAA Final Four 6 out of the 11 years....50% of the NCAA Final Four was made up of Primelink teams. Only twice has only one of the three teams not made it into the NCAA's. 2 times in 6 years all three Primelink teams were in the Final Four....Is there another tournament that can say that over that span?

 

[Dyce]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

Ooh, one more because I find it particularly impressive, and then I'll cut it out with the Primelink-lauding: neither of the teams in last year's national championship game was one of the three members of the Primelink's permanent rotation. The last time that happened? 1994.

 

[Matthew Webb]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

All this confirms what I originally suspected:

Jaslow is right. This early in the season, you win the Primelink, you're top five.

 

[NUProf]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

All this confirms what I originally suspected:

Jaslow is right. This early in the season, you win the Primelink, you're top five.

This is why instead of "Black Friday," I think of the day after Thanksgiving as "Primelink Friday."

 

[one_to7]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

So middle teams like Geneseo and Fredonia havn't gotten much better? Really...so in the past I dont know say 5 years...besides Plattsburgh who has won SUNYAC titles? Not Oswego...Geneseo '05 and '06, and Fredonia '07. The last time Fredonia won a Championship was 1995, while Genese was 1986.....Yea I would say they got better.Thanks for playing



You're catching on, this is what we are debating. Years ago when you went into Brockport and Buff State it wasn't IF you were going to win, but how much. Now, you still will probably win, but it will be much harder.




The question is not if the top two teams are "dominating" ....yes...the winning % of those 3 teams is huge. But....from 2003-2004 Cortland had more wins vs Plattsburgh then Oswego has had in the past 12 games..... Plattsburgh had a streak where they went 53-2-2 vs ALL SUNYAC...so yes, losing 4 games against the lower end SUNYAC teams is huge. Also point out all of the 10+ goal games against those teams once again...10 times over the first 8 years, and only ONCE over the last 7 years.





Correct, but 10 years ago Buff State wouldn't even have been even close against a top 10 team. THAT is significant....

Y
ou missed that I was talking about this year in particular. Yes, fredonia and geneseo are not as good as they were in years past. The bottom 3 teams have gotten a bit better than they had been. And what you're left with is two good teams and a lot of middling/mediocre teams.

That doesn't make a league deep, or good, it just means it's basically a coin flip when those 7-9 teams play each other, while the top two will still most likely roll them.

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

Y
ou missed that I was talking about this year in particular. Yes, fredonia and geneseo are not as good as they were in years past. The bottom 3 teams have gotten a bit better than they had been. And what you're left with is two good teams and a lot of middling/mediocre teams.

That doesn't make a league deep, or good, it just means it's basically a coin flip when those 7-9 teams play each other, while the top two will still most likely roll them.

What if Oswego and Plattsburgh "arent as good" as in year's past?

Sure their records don't exactly indicate it yet but I still feel the season is young and Plattsburgh hasnt gotten to the meat of their schedule yet.

As much as I hope it doesnt happen to this year's Oswego team, we all remember what happened last time Oswego had this many freshmen on a team as you were right there with me Scott watching them implode in the conference semis against Plattsburgh.

I think it's fair to say that right now, Plattsburgh doesnt have the offense or goaltending that they've had the past two seasons leaving them vulnerable especially with a tough OOC schedule as well as the long road trip to the Buffalo schools and Rochester schools to come.

Oswego, while they are off to a great start, don't have a Ryan Scott in net and in all honestly, after the top line they shouldnt scare too many teams. Rodrigues, Singleton, Whitelaw, Leimbrock, Moodie could sound an awful lot like McLaughlin, Ellis, Magagna, Whitehead come season's end with the way they disappeared when it mattered most their freshman seasons.

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

Ooh, one more because I find it particularly impressive, and then I'll cut it out with the Primelink-lauding: neither of the teams in last year's national championship game was one of the three members of the Primelink's permanent rotation. The last time that happened? 1994.

So that's the case for the finals? What about the whole <strike>frozen four</strike>? Last year no Primelink team made it to Lake Placid, when was the last time this occurred?

 

[Dyce]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

So that's the case for the finals? What about the whole <strike>frozen four</strike>? Last year no Primelink team made it to Lake Placid, when was the last time this occurred?

Same year, I believe: 1994. Norwich didn't yet have McShane to raise them to prominence, Middlebury was still a year shy of the NESCAC allowing NCAA tourney participation, and Plattsburgh was victim to the iron fist of a SUNYAC ruled by the first half of the Fredonia Two-Year Dynasty. Actually, Fredonia suffering their first loss of the season in the semis led to another benchmark: 1994 was the last time two Western region teams played for the championship.