New Poll Predictions for 11/16

[one_to7]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

Last year's Cards team was arguably the best team in the country on paper and on the ice for most of last season. They were an absolute juggernaut.

Lets wait and see how THIS year's Card's team does in terms of blowing opponents out of the water night in and night out. I dont think you're going to see it often. They simply lost way too much and having seen the increase of competition in the SUNYAC first hand the last four years, it's going to be a very interesting year for New York public school hockey.

A couple points:

A close league doesn't necessarily mean it's a better league, you can see that all over the sports world. Teams that are close together, inconsistent, hard to pick who's going to win a given game.... but they'd still get absolutely destroyed by a better league.

In the SUNYAC you've got plattsburgh, then oswego, then.... everyone else. Geneseo and fredonia had some spurts over the last few years, but ended up falling back into the pack with everyone else.

Second point, plattsburgh still has one of the best defenses in the country, so even if they're not scoring as much, they should be able to throttle other teams' offenses.

Scoring Defense:
  1 Amherst                     28      41      1.46
  2 Adrian                      29      49      1.69
  3 Plattsburgh                 28      54      1.93
  4 Manhattanville              25      50      2.00

And in their non-oswego games, plattsburgh has outscored their sunyac competition 18-5. Granted they haven't played fredonia yet, but if you stretch those numbers out to a full season, they'd finish scoring 63 goals and giving up 17-18. It's hard to call that anything other than total domination.

 

[93GreatLaker]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

Yeah and it's not like last year's Cardinals were that much better than any other Plattsburgh team.

Fair enough, lets go back to the season before then, where Plattsburgh outscored its SUNY opponents 75-32, and 2nd place Oswego (who didn't even make the NCAA tourney) outscored its SUNY brethren 76-32. If you cannot see the domination in league play of these two teams over the last two years, you are blind.

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

Fair enough, lets go back to the season before then, where Plattsburgh outscored its SUNY opponents 75-32, and 2nd place Oswego (who didn't even make the NCAA tourney) outscored its SUNY brethren 76-32. If you cannot see the domination in league play of these two teams over the last two years, you are blind.

I know they have been dominant. I'm talking about how the rest of the conference has gotten better though. Sure their results havent been there against Plattsburgh and Oswego yet but I think those days are coming.

The season is young. I'll be willing to bet by season's end both Oswego and Plattsburgh will have mutiple losses to SUNYAC opponents outside of themselves.

Will they finish 1-2 again? Probably...but every week these two teams are going to be challenged far more than they have been in recent years from the third to ninth place teams in the conference.

 

[one_to7]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

I know they have been dominant. I'm talking about how the rest of the conference has gotten better though. Sure their results havent been there against Plattsburgh and Oswego yet but I think those days are coming.

The season is young. I'll be willing to bet by season's end both Oswego and Plattsburgh will have mutiple losses to SUNYAC opponents outside of themselves.

Will they finish 1-2 again? Probably...but every week these two teams are going to be challenged far more than they have been in recent years from the third to ninth place teams in the conference.

Fredonia won the sunyac championship a few years ago. Geneseo won it twice a year or two before then.

But you're saying this year platty and wego will finish 1-2, yet be challenged far more than in recent years, how does that make sense?

 

[Dyce]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

While I understand both Prez's argument on paper in terms of talent, and that made through aggregate scores posted by others, I think the easiest (and perhaps, fairest) way to gauge things right now is to simply look at the W-L. The rest of the SUNYAC gets a combined 28 shots at Plattsburgh and Oswego over a given season, and 8 of those have already been played in this one. The balance of the conference is 0-8, and only Plattsburgh's opener versus Geneseo yielded a result as close two goals. Granted, there's still plenty of hockey to play, but neither the Lakers nor the Cardinals are particularly prone toward faltering as the season progresses; in fact, Plattsburgh is (arguably) right behind Middlebury in their historical tendency to do just the opposite. No matter how solid the theoretical grounding for a tighter conference, I see no reason not to respect the status quo until the results on the ice indicate otherwise.

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

Fredonia won the sunyac championship a few years ago. Geneseo won it twice a year or two before then.

But you're saying this year platty and wego will finish 1-2, yet be challenged far more than in recent years, how does that make sense?

We're talking about the regular season games here...Not the playoffs.

If anything you're helping my claim that Plattsburgh and Oswego while the dominant teams in the conference, are being caught by the competition when 3 of the last five championships have been won by teams that aren't Oswego or Plattsburgh.

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

While I understand both Prez's argument on paper in terms of talent, and that made through aggregate scores posted by others, I think the easiest (and perhaps, fairest) way to gauge things right now is to simply look at the W-L. The rest of the SUNYAC gets a combined 28 shots at Plattsburgh and Oswego over a given season, and 8 of those have already been played in this one. The balance of the conference is 0-8, and only Plattsburgh's opener versus Geneseo yielded a result as close two goals. Granted, there's still plenty of hockey to play, but neither the Lakers nor the Cardinals are particularly prone toward faltering as the season progresses; in fact, Plattsburgh is (arguably) right behind Middlebury in their historical tendency to do just the opposite. No matter how solid the theoretical grounding for a tighter conference, I see no reason not to respect the status quo until the results on the ice indicate otherwise.

Oswego had a tough game against Fredonia trailing with less than 10 minutes to go in the third period before rallying late and then adding an empty netter to make it 7-4.

 

[one_to7]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

We're talking about the regular season games here...Not the playoffs.

If anything you're helping my claim that Plattsburgh and Oswego while the dominant teams in the conference, are being caught by the competition when 3 of the last five championships have been won by teams that aren't Oswego or Plattsburgh.

Except he was talking about the last two years.

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

I only compared the common three cellar dwellers of the SUNYAC (Cortland, Buff State, and Brockport). For many years these three schools were known as "Point Night" where it wasn't "IF" you were going to get points, but how many...

From the 1994-1995 season to 2001-2002 season:

(Cortland, Buff State, Brockport)
Record: 46-0-2
Plattsburghs Opponents GAA 7.1
Plattsburghs GAA - 2.1
10+ goal games: 10 times
2 goal games (includes loses): 8 avg of 1 per year

From 2002-2003 season to 2008-2009
Record: 36-4-2
Plattsburghs Opponents GAA 5.1
Plattsburghs GAA - 2.3
10+ goal games: 1 time
2 goal games (includes loses): 15 avg of 2.14 per year

So lets see....those three teams are giving up on average 2 goals less a year vs Plattsburgh, while scoring .2 more a game. There has only been 1 10 goal game since the 03 season, and there have been nearly double as many close (2 goal games) in just 7 years then there was in the first 8 years. But you're right, the SUNYAC hasn't gotten any tougher at all......Its not like Buff State tied Hobart this year, or Morrisville didn't beat Elmira.

 

[93GreatLaker]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

Point conceded Remy, those 3 teams you mention are not nearly as bad as they once were. Maybe all that has happened is a few of the better players from Freddy, Genny, and Potsdam have moved to Cortland, Brockport, and Buff St so now instead of having 3 teams with a chance to win every week against the big two and 3 who get blown out, we have 6 teams that lose by an average of 3 goals week in and week out. The gap between the top two and the bottom of the league may be closer now than 10 years ago, but the gap between the top two now and the rest of the league as a whole is as big as its ever been.

 

[one_to7]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

I only compared the common three cellar dwellers of the SUNYAC (Cortland, Buff State, and Brockport). For many years these three schools were known as "Point Night" where it wasn't "IF" you were going to get points, but how many...

From the 1994-1995 season to 2001-2002 season:

(Cortland, Buff State, Brockport)
Record: 46-0-2
Plattsburghs Opponents GAA 7.1
Plattsburghs GAA - 2.1
10+ goal games: 10 times
2 goal games (includes loses): 8 avg of 1 per year

From 2002-2003 season to 2008-2009
Record: 36-4-2
Plattsburghs Opponents GAA 5.1
Plattsburghs GAA - 2.3
10+ goal games: 1 time
2 goal games (includes loses): 15 avg of 2.14 per year

So lets see....those three teams are giving up on average 2 goals less a year vs Plattsburgh, while scoring .2 more a game. There has only been 1 10 goal game since the 03 season, and there have been nearly double as many close (2 goal games) in just 7 years then there was in the first 8 years. But you're right, the SUNYAC hasn't gotten any tougher at all......Its not like Buff State tied Hobart this year, or Morrisville didn't beat Elmira.

A closer league is NOT the same thing as a better league, but hey, thanks for playing.

Have the teams at the bottom gotten better? Yes. Have the teams in the middle gotten better? No, if anything they're a decent amount worse this year than in years past.

Say you have a 100 pt scale for rating teams. One team is a 60 while the other is a 20, so you're basically "three times" better than them. Over the course of a few years you move up to an 80 while the other team moves up to 40. The gap is just as big, but now you're two times better instead of three. Did you get worse? Nope. Is the gap just as big? Yep. Is it tougher to beat the teams, while still being able to dominate them? Yes.

You're honestly claiming that a shift of 4 wins over a 6 year period is proof that the top two aren't absolutely dominating the rest of the league?

And check back at the end of the season, and see if that hobart tie is still that significant.

 

[Dyce]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

Say you have a 100 pt scale for rating teams. One team is a 60 while the other is a 20, so you're basically "three times" better than them. Over the course of a few years you move up to an 80 while the other team moves up to 40. The gap is just as big, but now you're two times better instead of three. Did you get worse? Nope. Is the gap just as big? Yep. Is it tougher to beat the teams, while still being able to dominate them? Yes.

You're honestly claiming that a shift of 4 wins over a 6 year period is proof that the top two aren't absolutely dominating the rest of the league?

Precisely: it's not a matter of progress relative to past seasons, it's a matter of progress relative to what common sense dictates to be "competitive." Are a reduction in margin of victory from 5 to 3 and a gain in Win% from .021 to .156 technically progress? Absolutely. Are they the kinds of numbers that should be taken as indicative of some kind of power shift? No, because they're still abysmal, to the extent that - from the standpoint of conference competitiveness - they're more or less meaningless gains.

 

[NUProf]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

We usually only get one bid anyways .

I think the only time recently that the SUNYAC got two bids was in 2007 when Fredonia and Oswego went.

All of which makes the SUNYAC's change in their playoff structure all the more foolish. In attempting to "protect" their reg season champ's shot at Pool C, all they did was make it more likely that there would be upsets in the playoffs, so that the league is represented by a team that is not the best team in the league.

 

[spwood]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

All of which makes the SUNYAC's change in their playoff structure all the more foolish. In attempting to "protect" their reg season champ's shot at Pool C, all they did was make it more likely that there would be upsets in the playoffs, so that the league is represented by a team that is not the best team in the league.

This change still makes complete sense to me. Under the old system, if the regular season champion didn't win the playoffs, they likely had 2 more losses (or a loss and a tie). We all know how close those battles for the final Pool C spot was at the end of the season. Two losses (or two non-wins) at the end were likely to doom an SUNYAC team's shot at an at-large bid. This way, any team contending for a Pool C bid would lose at most only one more game, putting them on par with the other Pool C teams they were competing with. Are there any other leagues that used a weekend series format? If not, SUNY was at a disadvantage in March competing for Pool C spots. They've corrected that with the new format. They've even managed to do it in such a way as to protect the #2 seed's right to host a playoff semifinal game.

 

[Ozz]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

The season is young. I'll be willing to bet by season's end both Oswego and Plattsburgh will have mutiple losses to SUNYAC opponents outside of themselves.

How much you willing to bet? I'm willing to bet that either Oswego or Platty will only have 0 or 1 losses outside of themselves.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

Wow! Win the Primelink and you make the top 5.

Why not?

If you win the Primelink you would have done so by beating some pretty darn good teams ranked very high. Thus, you should be ranked higher than them, especially when your record doesn't warrant a low ranking.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

You guys are stealing my topic for this week's SUNYAC column. And probably doing a better job of it, too.

 

[Matthew Webb]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

Why not?

If you win the Primelink you would have done so by beating some pretty darn good teams ranked very high. Thus, you should be ranked higher than them, especially when your record doesn't warrant a low ranking.

Two part question I don't feel like looking up the answer to: When was the last time the Primelink champ did not make the NCAA tournament? Considering I did just look it up and it was last year, how many times in the past ten years has that been the case?

From a Western vantage point, whoever wins that tournament is almost assuredly an elite. Considering that all three have proven year after year to be elite or close to it, it's awfully tough to argue with two big wins from a Platty, NU or Midd early in the year...

 

[mnhock27]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

Back to poll topics...seriously, where's the MIAC? You can't tell me that none of the MIAC belong in the top 15...

 

[Dyce]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/16

Two part question I don't feel like looking up the answer to: When was the last time the Primelink champ did not make the NCAA tournament? Considering I did just look it up and it was last year, how many times in the past ten years has that been the case?

My apologies if I screwed something up here, but I think I've got everything:

07-08 - Plattsburgh (NCAA Runner-up)
06-07 - Norwich (NCAA Quarters)
05-06 - Middlebury (National Champs)
04-05 - Norwich (Failed to make NCAAs) - it's worth noting here, however, that Norwich actually tied (win via shootout) Middlebury, the eventual national champs
03-04 - Middlebury (National Champs)
02-03 - Norwich (National Champs)
01-02 - Norwich (NCAA Runner-up)
00-01 - Middlebury (NCAA Quarters)
99-00 - Plattsburgh (NCAA Semis)
00-99 - Norwich (NCAA Semis)

So yeah, pretty good track record. And of course, simply by virtue of the permanent participants, 7 of the 10 Primelinks in that span included the eventual NC whether or not they won the Primelink itself.

e: This list also adds some legitimacy to Russell's argument, as 7 of the 10 champs here advanced to the NCAA semis or further and could therefore be considered "top four" for their seasons, at least as far as the hardware is concerned.