Nescac 2009/2010

[Euler18]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

NESCAC quarterfinals will be Friday, Feb 27.

The highest remaining seed following the quarterfinals will host the semifinals and the finals the following weekend (Saturday and Sunday).

Though the date of February 27 for the NESCAC quarterfinals is correct, the 27th is a Saturday, not a Friday.

From the NESCAC website: "The top eight teams in the conference will qualify for the NESCAC Men's Ice Hockey Championship. First round games will be conducted on Saturday, February 27, 2010 with the semifinals and championship games conducted on Saturday, March 6 and Sunday, March 7, respectively."

 

[d3follower]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

Though the date of February 27 for the NESCAC quarterfinals is correct, the 27th is a Saturday, not a Friday.

. . .

yes - Saturday, Feb 27, is actually what I meant to type - thanks for catching that . .

 

[neverplayed]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

Interesting question" Who is best equipped to beat Middlebury in the playoffs?
I think at this point they have to be the favorite. Here is my analysis based on current standings;

1. Bowdoin: Bowdoin does not match up well with Middlebury. Guys like Hardy, Lalor, and Sisson are terrific, but the lineup I saw has too many liabilities from a speed and lateral movement perspective to match up well with Midd. Likewise they would need a huge effort in goal, I put their chances at 25%

2. Amherst: Also some really good players Brock, Effinger and Nelson, excellent goaltending, but not nearly as dominating as last year. They are fast and I like what I saw of their powerplay. Kids may also believe they can win that game. 35%

3. Williams: They are big and strong but if they play on a bigger ice surface like Bowdoin's they will be at a disadvantage. Purdy is solid, but not going to win it without alot of help. Smigelsky is very good. I think they will play Middlebury tough, but I also think they could get upset in Round 1 depending on their opponent. 25%

4. Trinity: Very good speed, can skate with Middlebury. Vesprini must play out of his head. But guys like Quigley and Houli have the speed and experience to impact the game. I also like their coach and think he will keep them loose.
40%

5. Hamilton: Very good coach, racked by injuries. They are a good team but a year or two away. they will be a dangerous first round opponent for anyone, but I don't see them ready to win a game against Middlebury. 10%

6. Colby: The team no one should want to play in the first round, a little small, but very opportunistic with a good powerplay and a goalie McKinney who also can play very well on a given night. They could draw Bowdoin in round 1 which would be a very emotional game, if they could win that one they might be avle to use the momentum to become a factor. 30%

Tufts: A good season, and a pretty good goalie. Best team to draw in Round 1. Not yet ready to win that kind of game. 0%

The percentages, mean using Colby as an example if they play Middlebury 10 times they might win 3. Love to hear what others think.

 

[polarbearfan]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

Interesting question" Who is best equipped to beat Middlebury in the playoffs?
I think at this point they have to be the favorite. Here is my analysis based on current standings;

1. Bowdoin: Bowdoin does not match up well with Middlebury. Guys like Hardy, Lalor, and Sisson are terrific, but the lineup I saw has too many liabilities from a speed and lateral movement perspective to match up well with Midd. Likewise they would need a huge effort in goal, I put their chances at 25%

2. Amherst: Also some really good players Brock, Effinger and Nelson, excellent goaltending, but not nearly as dominating as last year. They are fast and I like what I saw of their powerplay. Kids may also believe they can win that game. 35%

3. Williams: They are big and strong but if they play on a bigger ice surface like Bowdoin's they will be at a disadvantage. Purdy is solid, but not going to win it without alot of help. Smigelsky is very good. I think they will play Middlebury tough, but I also think they could get upset in Round 1 depending on their opponent. 25%

4. Trinity: Very good speed, can skate with Middlebury. Vesprini must play out of his head. But guys like Quigley and Houli have the speed and experience to impact the game. I also like their coach and think he will keep them loose.
40%

5. Hamilton: Very good coach, racked by injuries. They are a good team but a year or two away. they will be a dangerous first round opponent for anyone, but I don't see them ready to win a game against Middlebury. 10%

6. Colby: The team no one should want to play in the first round, a little small, but very opportunistic with a good powerplay and a goalie McKinney who also can play very well on a given night. They could draw Bowdoin in round 1 which would be a very emotional game, if they could win that one they might be avle to use the momentum to become a factor. 30%

Tufts: A good season, and a pretty good goalie. Best team to draw in Round 1. Not yet ready to win that kind of game. 0%

The percentages, mean using Colby as an example if they play Middlebury 10 times they might win 3. Love to hear what others think.

I agree with most of your analysis however I would bump up Bowdoin a bit especially if they are at home (unbiased I promise ). Also I would bump Colby down a lot and Williams down a bit. Reasons being:

Bowdoin, from talking to people close to the team and watching them play, is a much looser, tight knit and confident team than teams from the past. Also, they are finally healthy and are putting out their best line up consistently. When you saw them play Midd Nerland was in net, Weiniger was in his first weekend back from injury and Corbelle was still sidelined. If they do indeed take the first seed and play Midd at home it's tough to say Bowdoin loses to them 7 or 8 out of 10. I would put the match up at about 40-60 with a slight nod to Midd due to their coaching preparing them well for do or die situations.

Colby has not been the same team since losing some key players to injury, including a key senior leader in Jarnot. I have a hard time seeing them beating Midd 2 out of 10 times away from their home barn.

Williams I just have not been impressed with this season. They have not played well at all against the better teams in the NESCAC. Their in conference win came at home in OT against Hamilton. I can't see them upsetting Midd come playoff time.

Other than that I think you are right on. Trinity is dangerous away from home and has the confidence knowing they did it last year. Amherst like you said is a step behind last years team and has been a little iffy down the stretch.

 

[d3follower]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

Interesting question" Who is best equipped to beat Middlebury in the playoffs?
I think at this point they have to be the favorite. Here is my analysis based on current standings;

1. Bowdoin: Bowdoin does not match up well with Middlebury. Guys like Hardy, Lalor, and Sisson are terrific, but the lineup I saw has too many liabilities from a speed and lateral movement perspective to match up well with Midd. Likewise they would need a huge effort in goal, I put their chances at 25%

2. Amherst: Also some really good players Brock, Effinger and Nelson, excellent goaltending, but not nearly as dominating as last year. They are fast and I like what I saw of their powerplay. Kids may also believe they can win that game. 35% . . .

I'm not going to make any bets as to who is going to beat who in the play-offs as we still have a weekend of regular season play to go and the final seeds to be set. I'm a Bowdoin fan so I know what I want to happen and I really like what I have been seeing from the Bears but I can wait . .

One thing I did wonder about with regard to Amherst is whether Joe Brock will be able to play this coming weekend and during the play-offs. He left the NEC game with an injury last weekend and did not dress for the St. A's game. If he can't play, that will be a big loss for Amherst as he is a key guy on the power play . .

 

[Euler18]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

I find the statements regarding Bowdoin's alleged lack of speed quite puzzling. If the Polar Bears were truly slow, they wouldn't be able to generate as many shots on net as they do, lead the league in goals scored while being second in goals against, score a league-leading six shorthanded goals while allowing none, etc., etc. Their skating may not always be pretty but it's efficient. In this respect, this Bowdoin team reminds me of recent Cornell teams. Take a player like Jeff Fanning, for example, who has scored 13 goals in 14 games, including a shorthanded tally, since returning to the team in January. He's big and doesn't LOOK particularly fast, but he maneuvers around opponents and finds the openings from which to take good shots. Similarly, freshman Dan Weiniger doesn't LOOK very fast, but he's a dazzling stickhandler, with incredibly QUICK hands. Bowdoin Captain Colin McCormack doesn't LOOK fast, but he's scored 89 points in 93 games over his career so far, including 11 shorthanded goals. Etc.

Incidentally, in a follow-up email to our conversation after the Bowdoin-Wesleyan game last Saturday, my good friend and Wesleyan head coach, Chris Potter, described Bowdoin as a "very good team, big and FAST." Chris should know. As a Division III All-America defenseman at the U of Connecticut, Chris was big and fast though not necessarily a pretty skater.

 

[d3follower]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

I find the statements regarding Bowdoin's alleged lack of speed quite puzzling. If the Polar Bears were truly slow, they wouldn't be able to generate as many shots on net as they do, lead the league in goals scored while being second in goals against, score a league-leading six shorthanded goals while allowing none, etc., etc. . .

Yeah - it's a real puzzler as to why neverplayed keeps on saying that. Just for fun, I looked up shots on goals in NESCAC play for each of the top teams as that's a pretty reliable indicator of team speed and mobility. Bowdoin leads there too (at 636). Next in line is Middlebury (596), then Trinity (559), Amherst (544), and Williams (543). Bowdoin also outshoots its opponents by more than any other NESCAC team (+177) although Middlebury is close behind at (+176). Interestingly, Trinity has been outshot in NESCAC play and Willaims has barely edged its opponents in shots on goal . . .

 

[neverplayed]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

Here is what I see, Weiniger and Fanning can both score and they both should play, great hands, shots and hockey sense. However neither has any lateral movement which hurts them on a bigger surface against a team like Middlebury. Now they are not your problem. Hardy is probably the best skater in the entire NESCAC, however last time I watched Bowdoin there are at least 6 guys who can't really skate. Now, Weininger and Fanning make up for it as I said before, the four others hurt Bowdoin badly when they match up against teams like Norwich and Middlebury. Also be very wary of counting shots on goal, when you watch Bowdoin play next, or in the playoffs, compare scoring chances of each team not shots. Finally, perhaps I am wrong the recent wins against Amherst and Trinity are good wins no doubt. I am just saying if Bowdoin plays Middlebury with 1/3 of the team having limited lateral movement it will be a very tough challenge. It doesn't hurt Bowdoin as much in the other matchups. Watch the penalty kill, some of the players I saw killing will be easy to walk around man up. Good luck to your team, maybe I'm wrong.

 

[d3follower]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

The flaw in your argument is that you are assuming Middlebury hosts. It will definitely have an advantage over Bowdoin if it does but Middlibury has not clinched the number one seed and hasn't hosted in 4 years. SOGs and goals are what we have as a measurable stat - not something amorphous like "scoring chances" - Bowdoin leads the league in both categories.

 

[neverplayed]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

The flaw in your argument is that you are assuming Middlebury hosts. It will definitely have an advantage over Bowdoin if it does but Middlibury has not clinched the number one seed and hasn't hosted in 4 years. SOGs and goals are what we have as a measurable stat - not something amorphous like "scoring chances" - Bowdoin leads the league in both categories.

You truly "Neverplayed", Many of those shots are from a distance. watch them next time, you might learn something. Not that it matters. You are a true fan enjoy your team!

 

[jimmy d]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

My two cents... It looks to me like Bowdoin will most likely host the tourney. In that case they'd have a bit of an advantage particularly since Middlebury has never played in that arena. I would expect that the same would be true for Williams as well. Due to the "on any given night" clause I think neverplayed's percentages are a little low across the board. As a MIDD fan I'll be a little worried about facing any of the other four major contenders, but I'd order them this way: Bowdoin,Williams,Trinity,Amherst. I have no data to support my opinion, just gut feelings based on this year's regular season head to head games against MIDD.

 

[jerrynu26]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

My two cents... It looks to me like Bowdoin will most likely host the tourney. In that case they'd have a bit of an advantage particularly since Middlebury has never played in that arena. I would expect that the same would be true for Williams as well. Due to the "on any given night" clause I think neverplayed's percentages are a little low across the board. As a MIDD fan I'll be a little worried about facing any of the other four major contenders, but I'd order them this way: Bowdoin,Williams,Trinity,Amherst. I have no data to support my opinion, just gut feelings based on this year's regular season head to head games against MIDD.

But Midd has done very well at Bowdoin'a arena,phase 1(Kreitzberg).

 

[jimmy d]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

I have not seen the Sid J Watson arena but I've heard that there are some similarities Many might say that not having played there shouldn't be a factor, but I seem to want to forget MIDD's first game at the Koeppel

 

[hawk]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

My two cents... It looks to me like Bowdoin will most likely host the tourney. In that case they'd have a bit of an advantage particularly since Middlebury has never played in that arena. I would expect that the same would be true for Williams as well. Due to the "on any given night" clause I think neverplayed's percentages are a little low across the board. As a MIDD fan I'll be a little worried about facing any of the other four major contenders, but I'd order them this way: Bowdoin,Williams,Trinity,Amherst. I have no data to support my opinion, just gut feelings based on this year's regular season head to head games against MIDD.

Middlebury has a difficult remaining schedule with Castleton and Skidmore away. Middlebury will be favored in both games but both teams are more than capable of defeating Middlebury.

 

[Euler18]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

I see a lot of what I call "pretty skating" in Division III -- small forwards who skate fast but to the outside as they enter the offensive zone. All thing being equal, you want to play in the inside area between the two faceoff circles. The Polar Bears don't hesitate to skate into this area. If you take guys like Dan Weiniger or Jeff Fanning, they'll score on quick releases from excellent positioning fairly close to the net. In this sense Bowdoin plays a lot more like a Division I team, particulartly in the ECAC, the league that I watch most often. The "pretty skating" that I'm describing won't get you anywhere in Division I. As I've said before, Bowdoin is a bit like a Division III version of Cornell, with all due respect to the great Big Red hockey machine.

I don't think there's a favorite for the NESCAC tournament unless Middlebury hosts it. The atmosphere, the NCAA banners, the great Middlebury fans can be intimidating. How many times has Middlebury lost at home over the past fifteen years? But if Bowdoin hosts, then I believe that several teams will have a shot at the championship: Amherst, Bowdoin, Trinity, Williams, maybe even a dark horse like Colby, in addition to Middlebury, depending, of course, on how the quarterfinals turn out. The new Watson rink is a beautiful facility, but, obviously, there's no tradition associated with it yet. It's not a particularly noisy place either.

 

[neverplayed]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

I see a lot of what I call "pretty skating" in Division III -- small forwards who skate fast but to the outside as they enter the offensive zone. All thing being equal, you want to play in the inside area between the two faceoff circles. The Polar Bears don't hesitate to skate into this area. If you take guys like Dan Weiniger or Jeff Fanning, they'll score on quick releases from excellent positioning fairly close to the net. In this sense Bowdoin plays a lot more like a Division I team, particulartly in the ECAC, the league that I watch most often. The "pretty skating" that I'm describing won't get you anywhere in Division I. As I've said before, Bowdoin is a bit like a Division III version of Cornell, with all due respect to the great Big Red hockey machine.

I don't think there's a favorite for the NESCAC tournament unless Middlebury hosts it. The atmosphere, the NCAA banners, the great Middlebury fans can be intimidating. How many times has Middlebury lost at home over the past fifteen years? But if Bowdoin hosts, then I believe that several teams will have a shot at the championship: Amherst, Bowdoin, Trinity, Williams, maybe even a dark horse like Colby, in addition to Middlebury, depending, of course, on how the quarterfinals turn out. The new Watson rink is a beautiful facility, but, obviously, there's no tradition associated with it yet. It's not a particularly noisy place either.

Good analysis, my point is that that lineup which has obviously done well all season will have a tough time matching up against Middlebury. Both teams would meet only in the finals and Coaches are unlikely to change players to beat a specific team at that point, so we will see if indeed they do meet. St Anslem is no pushover, they are a hard scrabble opportunistic team who beat Middlebury 4-0. Since that game Middlebury has seemingly turned things around.

 

[jimmy d]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

Both teams would meet only in the finals and Coaches are unlikely to change players to beat a specific team at that point, so we will see if indeed they do meet. .

Don't forget that these teams all have four points on the line this weekend and only three points divides the top five teams. The seeding for the tourney could look entirely different come Sunday night.

 

[Euler18]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

Don't forget that these teams all have four points on the line this weekend and only three points divides the top five teams. The seeding for the tourney could look entirely different come Sunday night.

This is an excellent point. Bowdoin and Middlebury are leading the league, but Bowdoin has a difficult game against St. Anselm's and Middlebury has two away games (as do Williams and Trinity). Like Bowdoin, Amherst is at home, but has a difficult game against Babson. This weekend is no cakewalk for any the top five teams.

It looks like Amherst, Bowdoin, Middlebury, Trinity and Williams are fairly close as far as talent level is concerned, with perhaps a small edge to Middlebury. Teams like Colby and Hamilton could also surprise. And a goalie -- and there are many good ones in the league -- may get hot. It should be a very interesting tournament. It's a great league.

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

This is an excellent point. Bowdoin and Middlebury are leading the league, but Bowdoin has a difficult game against St. Anselm's and Middlebury has two away games (as do Williams and Trinity). Like Bowdoin, Amherst is at home, but has a difficult game against Babson. This weekend is no cakewalk for any the top five teams.

It looks like Amherst, Bowdoin, Middlebury, Trinity and Williams are fairly close as far as talent level is concerned, with perhaps a small edge to Middlebury. Teams like Colby and Hamilton could also surprise. And a goalie -- and there are many good ones in the league -- may get hot. It should be a very interesting tournament. It's a great league.

Y'all have been making CCCP comments since way before I joined this board... did it originally ever have anything to do with the tendency of these leagues have an equitable distribution of talent such as is described in this post? It certainly fits the theme

 

[neumyer]

Re: Nescac 2009/2010

It is the last day of the regular season and about all I think we know is that Colby will finish 8th, Tufts 7th and Hamilton 6th. Due to tiebreakers, it appears that only Bowdoin or Middlebury can win the regular season outright. If things hold as they are Bowdoin would entertain Colby, a team it lost to twice on successive nights in December, Midd would host Tufts who they tied on the opening night of the season and Amherst would be at home against travel partner Hamilton since the Jeffs have the tiebreaker over Williams. The Ephs and Trinity will play each other with home ice yet to be decided.

I can't say who it will be, but I expect at least one upset in the quarterfinals next Saturday. The only sure thing is that Conn College and Wesleyan won't be participating.