USCHO Fan Forum
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
-
The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.
nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
- Thread starter dxmnkd316
- Start date
- Status
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
Yeah, no ****. I'm talking about peer reviewed scientific literature.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19204283
https://jvi.asm.org/content/88/14/7692
it's more complex in tropical regions where they don't have a low humidity/low temperature season, and the rainy season appears to be a driver there:
Yeah, no ****. I'm talking about peer reviewed scientific literature.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19204283
https://jvi.asm.org/content/88/14/7692
it's more complex in tropical regions where they don't have a low humidity/low temperature season, and the rainy season appears to be a driver there:
Last edited:
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
It's just a hypothesis that needs additional lab, epidemiological, and modelling studies (it even says that). And it's more explaining the reason of variability of transmissions and survivability due to the absolute humidity or relative humidity. Not that it's clearly going away when it gets hot and humid.
It's going to take a whole lot more than having others read the data to prove that.
It's just a hypothesis that needs additional lab, epidemiological, and modelling studies (it even says that). And it's more explaining the reason of variability of transmissions and survivability due to the absolute humidity or relative humidity. Not that it's clearly going away when it gets hot and humid.
It's going to take a whole lot more than having others read the data to prove that.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Death toll from coronavirus surpasses 1,100; US confirms 13th case <a href="https://t.co/mvbzymGSCH">https://t.co/mvbzymGSCH</a></p>— Detroit Free Press (@freep) <a href="https://twitter.com/freep/status/1227477950972428288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Offically now 1100.
带出你的死人!
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Death toll from coronavirus surpasses 1,100; US confirms 13th case <a href="https://t.co/mvbzymGSCH">https://t.co/mvbzymGSCH</a></p>— Detroit Free Press (@freep) <a href="https://twitter.com/freep/status/1227477950972428288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Offically now 1100.
带出你的死人!
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
Bad, for sure.
But to reach the US death toll rate for influenza, it would need about 100,000 deaths- I think it's been posted that the US is 10,000/330,000,000, and since China is about 10x larger than we are....
The real question, it seems, is what action to take to deal with people- for the news that we can actually get, it's the Diamond Princess passengers are still spreading it even with them all being confined to their cabins. (and I'm sure the environment is easily controlled if that would contribute to it ending). Perhaps that's the wrong action?
Bad, for sure.
But to reach the US death toll rate for influenza, it would need about 100,000 deaths- I think it's been posted that the US is 10,000/330,000,000, and since China is about 10x larger than we are....
The real question, it seems, is what action to take to deal with people- for the news that we can actually get, it's the Diamond Princess passengers are still spreading it even with them all being confined to their cabins. (and I'm sure the environment is easily controlled if that would contribute to it ending). Perhaps that's the wrong action?
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
What the hell is that in the picture?
I can’t tell if it’s lettuce or bodies.
What the hell is that in the picture?
I can’t tell if it’s lettuce or bodies.
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
Again, it’s bad not because of the raw numbers but the fact that it’s 100x more deadly the flu.
Again, it’s bad not because of the raw numbers but the fact that it’s 100x more deadly the flu.
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
Is it? Or is that just relative to how many we actually know are sick? How many more are sick, but are not treated- some of the videos out of China suggest that there are MANY more sick people than are spaces for real treatment.
Time will truly tell if it's really that much more deadly. If it is, then that would be well over a million who may die in China, as it really appears that containment isn't working all that well, locally.
Is it? Or is that just relative to how many we actually know are sick? How many more are sick, but are not treated- some of the videos out of China suggest that there are MANY more sick people than are spaces for real treatment.
Time will truly tell if it's really that much more deadly. If it is, then that would be well over a million who may die in China, as it really appears that containment isn't working all that well, locally.
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
From what I know, basically if you get it, you're gonna die. Part of it is b/c China isn't reporting real numbers, and the other part of it is we have no clue how to friggin' treat it in time.
From what I know, basically if you get it, you're gonna die. Part of it is b/c China isn't reporting real numbers, and the other part of it is we have no clue how to friggin' treat it in time.
D
Deutsche Gopher Fan
Guest
I don’t think that’s true at all. It’s not Ebola. Fatality rate is around 2%, death rates lag for weeks so it will be impossible to get hard data but as an epidemiology graduate student I have not heard anything close to “if you get it you die”
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
IF they catch it in time, sure, you're fine. That's the fine print. IF they catch it in time. They're still trying to figure out everything; symptoms, source, how it spreads, etc. That throws a wrench in things.
They are doing the right thing in the quarantines, etc. That's prob the best plan.
IF they catch it in time, sure, you're fine. That's the fine print. IF they catch it in time. They're still trying to figure out everything; symptoms, source, how it spreads, etc. That throws a wrench in things.
They are doing the right thing in the quarantines, etc. That's prob the best plan.
D
Deutsche Gopher Fan
Guest
That’s not what you said. You said if you get it, you will die. There is just no factual basis for that.
They haven’t determined incubation period or all methods of transmission , so yes a lot of unknown- but saying things like everyone will has it will die spreads a lot of fear and panic
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
There are two kinds of people in this world. Those that can figure out a result based on incomplete information, and...
Right now the coronavirus is incomplete information.
There are two kinds of people in this world. Those that can figure out a result based on incomplete information, and...
Right now the coronavirus is incomplete information.
D
Deutsche Gopher Fan
Guest
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
So incomplete information means it’s 100% fatality rate?
I’d use real epidemiology terms here to explain things but why bother.
So incomplete information means it’s 100% fatality rate?
I’d use real epidemiology terms here to explain things but why bother.
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
Right now, people are unsure if they have it or not, hard to ID until....OH CRAP YOU HAVE IT. Sure I exaggerated. Given the reports (or lack thereof), you will die, because of lack of information about this. Death tolls are really high right now. There was a report of 45MM could die, I don't believe that, that is sensationalism, but a good amount more will die, because of lack of information. More than we expect, IMO.
If we knew the source, the "pre" symptoms (if you will), recognize ALL symptoms of the virus, the death prediction will decrease greatly. However, we don't have that yet.
Right now, people are unsure if they have it or not, hard to ID until....OH CRAP YOU HAVE IT. Sure I exaggerated. Given the reports (or lack thereof), you will die, because of lack of information about this. Death tolls are really high right now. There was a report of 45MM could die, I don't believe that, that is sensationalism, but a good amount more will die, because of lack of information. More than we expect, IMO.
If we knew the source, the "pre" symptoms (if you will), recognize ALL symptoms of the virus, the death prediction will decrease greatly. However, we don't have that yet.
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
Coronavirus is here.
They thought they knew the symptoms, can prevent.
Whoops, they know the symptoms, but you may not show symptoms and still spread the virus.
Oh, crap, we should shut everything down (Good move, btw)
Dunno how to exactly handle this
It's still spreading, due to lack of info/treatment
China not exactly being truthful on everything
That's what I'm talking about
Coronavirus is here.
They thought they knew the symptoms, can prevent.
Whoops, they know the symptoms, but you may not show symptoms and still spread the virus.
Oh, crap, we should shut everything down (Good move, btw)
Dunno how to exactly handle this
It's still spreading, due to lack of info/treatment
China not exactly being truthful on everything
That's what I'm talking about
- Status