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nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

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Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Jfc

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ah yes everybody knows that in warm and hot climates, disease simply doesn’t exist. Nothing germs hate more than heat and humidity <a href="https://t.co/TMlASDl4g2">https://t.co/TMlASDl4g2</a></p>— Erin praying 4 u Ryan (@morninggloria) <a href="https://twitter.com/morninggloria/status/1226909506073853957?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 10, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Jfc

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ah yes everybody knows that in warm and hot climates, disease simply doesn’t exist. Nothing germs hate more than heat and humidity <a href="https://t.co/TMlASDl4g2">https://t.co/TMlASDl4g2</a></p>— Erin praying 4 u Ryan (@morninggloria) <a href="https://twitter.com/morninggloria/status/1226909506073853957?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 10, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Double jfc.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Double jfc.

to be fair, warmer weather can reduce the amount of time the virus can survive on surfaces like doorknobs, etc and lower temperatures increase their survival time in aerosol

warmer weather can absolutely slow the spread
 
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Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

to be fair, warmer weather can reduce the amount of time the virus can survive on surfaces like doorknobs, etc and lower temperatures increase their survival time in aerosol

But those are seasonal variations, right? This is going to be with us for a long time. Presumably winter will come again, although I'm sure the American Petroleum Institute is right now developing "science" about how global warming will stop the scourge of nCoV.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

But those are seasonal variations, right? This is going to be with us for a long time. Presumably winter will come again, although I'm sure the American Petroleum Institute is right now developing "science" about how global warming will stop the scourge of nCoV.

well SARS is still with us but we're not panicking about it anymore. If we see a resurgence of Coronavirus I doubt it will be as severe as the current (there will be potential vaccinations, hopefully they'll have identified some antiviral meds that are effective, etc)
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

well SARS is still with us but we're not panicking about it anymore. If we see a resurgence of Coronavirus I doubt it will be as severe as the current (there will be potential vaccinations, hopefully they'll have identified some antiviral meds that are effective, etc)

Dumb question: do viruses mutate?
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

absolutely

some have very high mutation rates.

So assuming a moving target can we have confidence it won't mutate to a more dangerous configuration? (Or are the odds against that, in the way that random chance tends not to produce meaningful strings)?
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

So assuming a moving target can we have confidence it won't mutate to a more dangerous configuration? (Or are the odds against that, in the way that random chance tends not to produce meaningful strings)?

i'm not going to try to answer this because I'd be pulling things out of my ***. I do know the flu has a really high mutation rate, which I would guess is why we don't have a universal vaccination by now. It doesn't seem to make it more deadly, but it makes it difficult to develop immunity. I would guess there is always a chance for a mutation that would make a virus more deadly.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

i'm not going to try to answer this because I'd be pulling things out of my ***. I do know the flu has a really high mutation rate, which I would guess is why we don't have a universal vaccination by now. It doesn't seem to make it more deadly, but it makes it difficult to develop immunity. I would guess there is always a chance for a mutation that would make a virus more deadly.

All I know about this is that the vast, vast majority of mutations are either meaningless or non-viable. It takes a lucky roll to tweak a characteristic in a way that is both significant and not suicidal. The islands of viability in the sea of genetic possibilities are tiny.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

to be fair, warmer weather can reduce the amount of time the virus can survive on surfaces like doorknobs, etc and lower temperatures increase their survival time in aerosol

warmer weather can absolutely slow the spread

But, correct me if I'm wrong, the vast majority of the decrease in outbreaks in warmer weather is because people are less holed-up inside, not because the sun is baking the virus away.
 
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