What's new
By:
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Status
Not open for further replies.
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

ScoobyDoo said:
Hearing the economy in China is going to tank over this. That means US too.
Click to expand...

I assume that the effects won't be felt here for at least a few months. What's the general timeline for goods coming off a line in China until they get on a store shelf here?
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

The Sicatoka said:
Not quite the right analogy.

You had to go to Chernobyl to get full value impact; this thing is equipped to take its show on the road.
Click to expand...

I think he means it could bring about a demand for greater government transparency, an increased suspicion of government, and demands for greater freedom of speech in China.

He [Mikhail Gorbachev] states flatly that the Chernobyl explosion was “perhaps the real cause of the collapse of the Soviet Union.” According to Gorbachev, the Chernobyl explosion was a “turning point” that “opened the possibility of much greater freedom of expression, to the point that the system as we knew it could no longer continue.” Gorbachev introduced his policy of glasnost, or “openness” of ideas and expression, not long before the Chernobyl explosion. It was his remedy for widespread censorship and government secrecy. To Gorbachev, Chernobyl proved the wisdom and necessity of glasnost. The explosion and attendant tumult, he claims, “made absolutely clear how important it was to continue the policy of glasnost.”

Gorbachev’s laudable dedication to glasnost may have set the state on a path toward destruction. Sovietologists “don’t like monocausal explanations” of the fall of the USSR, said Michael David-Fox, a professor of Russian and Soviet history at Georgetown University. Still, “there’s a case to be made” that Chernobyl occurred early enough in Gorbachev’s first phase of glasnost to hasten the process and eventually drive the state into the ground.
Click to expand...

https://slate.com/technology/2013/0...uclear-catastrophe-to-undermine-the-ussr.html
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

The Rube said:
From what I know, basically if you get it, you're gonna die. Part of it is b/c China isn't reporting real numbers, and the other part of it is we have no clue how to friggin' treat it in time.
Click to expand...

where did you get this information? The current fatality rate is somewhere around 2%, but that estimate is probably too high because the total number of infected people is underreported, especially since there is a large number of people that become infected and only have a mild case and never go to the hospital.

As far as treatment goes, I think it's true they don't have a recommended antiviral drug for it yet, but other than that I would assume treatment would be similar to SARS/MERS/severe influenza. Basically supportive care.
 
Last edited:
ScoobyDoo said:
Hearing the economy in China is going to tank over this. That means US too.
Click to expand...

Keep an eye on the Chinese auto industry (remember the old saying, "How GM/Ford/Chrysler go, so goes the country?")

The Chinese (and US) auto markets stocked up on parts going into the new year specifically because of the plant shut downs that happen over Chinese New Year.

Now that the holiday is over, if the Chinese plants dont resume normal capacity, it's going to start to show.

US suppliers of parts have enough stock to get through February, as long as supplies resume by the end of the month. If the shutdowns drag into March, we're all fu**ed.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

About three hours old from NBC:

China’s National Health Commission has so far confirmed more than 63,000 cases of COVID-19, the new name for the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, as of Friday morning.The current death toll, 1,380, represents a decrease in deaths previously reported in Hubei province.
Click to expand...

That's running about 2%, but as some noted, data is surely incomplete and inaccurate (if nothing else because of the real-time nature).

That said, influenza and pneumonia caused ... 55,672 deaths in the US in 2017. I get that COVID-19 can go pandemic level, but to this point it's a piker compared to garden-variety flu in the US annually.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

BassAle said:
where did you get this information? The current fatality rate is somewhere around 2%, but that estimate is probably too high because the total number of infected people is underreported, especially since there is a large number of people that become infected and only have a mild case and never go to the hospital.

As far as treatment goes, I think it's true they don't have a recommended antiviral drug for it yet, but other than that I would assume treatment would be similar to SARS/MERS/severe influenza. Basically supportive care.
Click to expand...
When data is inaccurate, results are obviously flawed. You can have mis-diagnoses, under- or over-reporting of the actual virus, etc. Given that it's China, they could be very well saying "He died from the flu" or something, when in fact it's the virus.

I'd be curious about China-only numbers, truthful numbers. The rest of the world seems to have been prepared for this, after the initial Chinese outbreak. Those deaths are obviously at a lower rate.
 
The Rube said:
When data is inaccurate, results are obviously flawed. You can have mis-diagnoses, under- or over-reporting of the actual virus, etc. Given that it's China, they could be very well saying "He died from the flu" or something, when in fact it's the virus.

I'd be curious about China-only numbers, truthful numbers. The rest of the world seems to have been prepared for this, after the initial Chinese outbreak. Those deaths are obviously at a lower rate.
Click to expand...

You said “If you get it you die”, which is far from true.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

The only people I are pointing out fly deaths are morons. Mostly because it ignores so many key aspects of this outbreak.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

dxmnkd316 said:
Let me rephrase. Those who attempt to use flu to minimize this are dumb.
Click to expand...

I will agree with this.

Over the last few years, we've had to face new strains of stuff we've never seen before. With the flu, well, it's the flu, just a slightly stronger version of it at times.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

The Rube said:
I will agree with this.

Over the last few years, we've had to face new strains of stuff we've never seen before. With the flu, well, it's the flu, just a slightly stronger version of it at times.
Click to expand...

That’s not right. There are several (dozens? Hundred?) strains of flu and we’re still not entirely sure which one caused Spanish flu. We have some really good guesses but no one knows for sure.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

dxmnkd316 said:
That’s not right. There are several (dozens? Hundred?) strains of flu and we’re still not entirely sure which one caused Spanish flu. We have some really good guesses but no one knows for sure.
Click to expand...

I shall amend to different strains, rather than stronger versions.

We see it as the flu...then we figure out how to treat it.

Avian...*** is this? SARS, Swine Flu, Ebola, and now this. I bet in a couple years, there'll be another "um, we're not sure what this is" different virus.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Avian and swine were just mutations of “regular” influenza.

Bad bird flu is H5N1 and swine was H1N1 if memory serves me right.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top