NCAA Tourney Team Selection Options

[manurespreader]

Here's something to think about. BG started the year on fire, played super well and beat teams both in and out of the league. then at the end, kind of fizzled but they do have some quality wins. Similarly, BU started the year on fire and fizzled at the end but with some quality wins. Yet we are dismissing BG and we are saying BU is in. ?... Maybe BU ought not to be in.

 

[J.D.]

So Hockey East should get two teams in and the WCHA should get four? OK.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Here's something to think about. BG started the year on fire, played super well and beat teams both in and out of the league. then at the end, kind of fizzled but they do have some quality wins. Similarly, BU started the year on fire and fizzled at the end but with some quality wins. Yet we are dismissing BG and we are saying BU is in. ?... Maybe BU ought not to be in.

This is a fair point, and I think the comparison between BU and BGSU is very close. However, the biggest reasons why I think the committee considers BU a lock and BGSU is not is because (in no particular order):

(1) BU is an eastern team, and I just can't see the committee leaving BU out and putting BGSU in when there is a dearth of eastern teams in contention for the tournament as is.
(2) BU is a Hockey East team, and it is probably fair that, at minimum (fair or not), 3 HE teams will get in, and BU probably has the third best resume in Hockey East this season.
(3) BGSU is a WCHA team, and it is probably fair that, at maximum (fair or not), 3 WCHA teams will get in, and BGSU probably has the fourth best resume in WCHA this season.
(4) BU lost only 4 games...albeit in a drastically shortened season, with "quality" in-conference wins over BC and PC.
(5) BGSU lost 10 games...albeit playing almost a full season. However, BGSU went 1-7 against the WCHA's top 3.

Sigh...this is why I miss having objective criteria determine our field.

That being said, I do believe that when the tournament field is announced, there will be a big surprise or two getting in that will leave those of us trying to predict this thing scratching our heads.

 

[Numbers]

This is a fair point, and I think the comparison between BU and BGSU is very close. However, the biggest reasons why I think the committee considers BU a lock and BGSU is not is because (in no particular order):

(1) BU is an eastern team, and I just can't see the committee leaving BU out and putting BGSU in when there is a dearth of eastern teams in contention for the tournament as is.
(2) BU is a Hockey East team, and it is probably fair that, at minimum (fair or not), 3 HE teams will get in, and BU probably has the third best resume in Hockey East this season.
(3) BGSU is a WCHA team, and it is probably fair that, at maximum (fair or not), 3 WCHA teams will get in, and BGSU probably has the fourth best resume in WCHA this season.
(4) BU lost only 4 games...albeit in a drastically shortened season, with "quality" in-conference wins over BC and PC.
(5) BGSU lost 10 games...albeit playing almost a full season. However, BGSU went 1-7 against the WCHA's top 3.

Sigh...this is why I miss having objective criteria determine our field.

That being said, I do believe that when the tournament field is announced, there will be a big surprise or two getting in that will leave those of us trying to predict this thing scratching our heads.

I'm not sure there is much way left for us to be surprised. After all, you have a well established bubble, and almost all of us agree with it. Looking at conference standings, for example, there is no room for Clarkson, as they have officially ended their season. Neither StL or Colgate has any semblance of a chance at an at-large bid.

Looking further:
AHA - Maybe Army, but you have them covered.
HEA - There is discussion here about Northeastern, Providence, and Connecticut. Northeastern or Connecticut would surprise me, but not leave me scratching my head.
B10 - The only possible head scratcher is Notre Dame, and they basically killed their own chances by losing to Penn State
WCHA - 4 teams with possibilities, BGSU being the last. Again, if they were in, I'd be surprised, but I wouldn't be scratching my head
NCHC - 5 teams with possibilities. If we saw 5 teams in, I'd be surprised.

There really aren't many "out of left field" options left for the committee.

 

[manurespreader]

I've watched a lot of Atlantic Hockey this year and listened to Dan Rubin a lot. I'd say the difference isn't in the skating or the offense. The difference is in the defense, Western teams are FAR more capable defensively, and goaltending. AH goaltending is not all that great imho.

BTw early in the year Huntsville, who skate 13 freshmen, was at Robert Morris and was leading in the third when the goaltender was hurt in a scrum. RM scored 5 straight goals to win, but until then, Huntsville was the better team..

 

[J.D.]

FS23, BU also swept UMass. Now please stop making me defend their inclusion...

This is all actually more entertaining than talking about the PWR and everyone knowing 95% of what the actual bracket will look like before the selection show. Hell, we're talking about Army as a bubble team and the WCHA getting 3-4 teams in. If anything, Atlantic Hockey and the WCHA should be rooting for this system over the PWR. We talk about smoke filled room but as we can see there are plenty of arguments to be made for and against all of these bubble teams. Unless something nefarious happens like say both Omaha and Denver in on a wink wink compromise by the committee for Mike Kemp, this is far more interesting to discuss. Ultimately a system like the PWR is probably the best option but the unknown of this season is fun to me. I have always wanted a system that allowed some flexibility in picking the last few bubble teams but I know I am in the minority.

 

[J.D.]

Make the conference tournament games mean something. They should be viewed as an extension of the NCAA tournament. Omaha went 2-3 against Denver and lost the deciding game against a shorthanded Denver squad. They could have made this a whole lot easier had they just won that game. I will have no sympathy for them if left out. Denver? You went 10-13-1. No sympathy for them if left out. To me, if the NCHC gets a 4th team it should be Denver regardless of the losing record. If the committee doesn't like the optics of that, then just give the NCHC 3 bids and let them cry about it for a year.

As a Hockey East fan, Northeastern is toast. They are now below UML in KRACH. UConn had a chance to solidify their case and failed miserably. Similar to Bowling Green. To me, they should be done. If either UML or PC win their semifinal game I think those teams enter the at large equation. If they both lose? Thanks for playing, see ya next year.

 

[Numbers]

FS23, BU also swept UMass. Now please stop making me defend their inclusion...

This is all actually more entertaining than talking about the PWR and everyone knowing 95% of what the actual bracket will look like before the selection show. Hell, we're talking about Army as a bubble team and the WCHA getting 3-4 teams in. If anything, Atlantic Hockey and the WCHA should be rooting for this system over the PWR. We talk about smoke filled room but as we can see there are plenty of arguments to be made for and against all of these bubble teams. Unless something nefarious happens like say both Omaha and Denver in on a wink wink compromise by the committee for Mike Kemp, this is far more interesting to discuss. Ultimately a system like the PWR is probably the best option but the unknown of this season is fun to me. I have always wanted a system that allowed some flexibility in picking the last few bubble teams but I know I am in the minority.

I've always wanted a system which is objective as to who gets in, but much more subjective in the seeding of the tournament. And, my argument goes like this:
Anything can happen in ONE hockey game. So, every team in has a chance, and therefore, objectivity is necessary in choosing the field.

However, once the field has been chosen, it is simply NOT true that there is any real meaning in one team having an RPI .0002 better than another team. (This is true in choosing the field as well, but you need to be objective.) There are often times in which swapping the 4th and 5th overall seeds, or the 7th and 9th, would make a better balanced tournament. And, there is no statistical reason not to do so. The committee has itself rigidly locked in to one or two bracket possibilities by the PWR and the "4 seed bands" rubrics. But, maybe that's what they want, because subjective choices would be very difficult.

 

[Numbers]

Make the conference tournament games mean something. They should be viewed as an extension of the NCAA tournament. Omaha went 2-3 against Denver and lost the deciding game against a shorthanded Denver squad. They could have made this a whole lot easier had they just won that game. I will have no sympathy for them if left out. Denver? You went 10-13-1. No sympathy for them if left out. To me, if the NCHC gets a 4th team it should be Denver regardless of the losing record. If the committee doesn't like the optics of that, then just give the NCHC 3 bids and let them cry about it for a year.

As a Hockey East fan, Northeastern is toast. They are now below UML in KRACH. UConn had a chance to solidify their case and failed miserably. Similar to Bowling Green. To me, they should be done. If either UML or PC win their semifinal game I think those teams enter the at large equation. If they both lose? Thanks for playing, see ya next year.

Let's play.....
Mass and BC win.
Now, how do you make a tourney?
You've given us 4 teams from the NCHC (although you don't really like Denver, but will allow it)
3 teams from B10
3 teams from HEA
That's 10 teams.

Who are the other 4?
AHA winner
ECAC winner
Mankato
WHCA runner up

That makes 14 teams.
You have to choose 2 more.....
A 3rd from WCHA?
A 4th from WCHA?
At large from AHA?

Who is it?

 

[lakersparty]

I see the pros and cons of both systems, but I do agree that this year is more fun. Also this board has done a great job being entertaining with various posters doing their own bracketology. I've kind of been disappointed in the major sites not doing regular bracket projections right now. It's almost like they are afraid to upset certain teams/fan bases or something.

 

[J.D.]

Let's play.....
Mass and BC win.
Now, how do you make a tourney?
You've given us 4 teams from the NCHC (although you don't really like Denver, but will allow it)
3 teams from B10
3 teams from HEA
That's 10 teams.

Who are the other 4?
AHA winner
ECAC winner
Mankato
WHCA runner up

That makes 14 teams.
You have to choose 2 more.....
A 3rd from WCHA?
A 4th from WCHA?
At large from AHA?

Who is it?

To me, the loser of Bemidji/LSSU should be in. WCHA gets 3 in.

 

[J.D.]

Numbers, it very well might come down to one team from a group of teams I have "eliminated". All I mean by that is pick out of a hat at that point. None of those teams will have a real complaint.

 

[J.D.]

With the ECAC only fielding 4 teams I thought they should have gone back to the old 12 team field for a year with two super regionals or maybe 14 and figure out a format.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

FS23, BU also swept UMass. Now please stop making me defend their inclusion...

This is all actually more entertaining than talking about the PWR and everyone knowing 95% of what the actual bracket will look like before the selection show. Hell, we're talking about Army as a bubble team and the WCHA getting 3-4 teams in. If anything, Atlantic Hockey and the WCHA should be rooting for this system over the PWR. We talk about smoke filled room but as we can see there are plenty of arguments to be made for and against all of these bubble teams. Unless something nefarious happens like say both Omaha and Denver in on a wink wink compromise by the committee for Mike Kemp, this is far more interesting to discuss. Ultimately a system like the PWR is probably the best option but the unknown of this season is fun to me. I have always wanted a system that allowed some flexibility in picking the last few bubble teams but I know I am in the minority.

No, I want you to be the BU spokesperson at the committee selection meeting. ; - p

To some extent, I agree that it is entertaining to discuss things. However, we have no real idea how the committee sees things. Maybe Army is a bubble team...maybe they are a lock...maybe they have to win the Atlantic Hockey tournament. We just have absolutely no idea. Arguments can be made, but until the rest of the games are played and the field is announced, we have no real idea. Same is true with the WCHA. Perhaps the committee will treat the conference like the old WCHA and give them 4-5 bids. Perhaps they only get 2. Again, arguments could be made for either, but we have no real idea how the committee sees things. Hell, maybe they will just follow the broken Pairwise:

[TABLE="border: 0, cellpadding: 1, cellspacing: 0"]
[TR]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Minnesota State[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD].6211[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD].0085[/TD]
[TD]20-3-1 (2-1)[/TD]
[TD].8354[/TD]
[TD].8499[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Boston College[/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD].5788[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD].0047[/TD]
[TD]17-4-1 (3-2)[/TD]
[TD].7750[/TD]
[TD].7663[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]North Dakota[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD].5742[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD].0007[/TD]
[TD]20-5-1 (2-1)[/TD]
[TD].7712[/TD]
[TD].7738[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD].5709[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD].0026[/TD]
[TD]22-6-0 (0-0)[/TD]
[TD].7857[/TD]
[TD].7606[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]American Int'l[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD].5708[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD].0058[/TD]
[TD]13-3-0 (1-0)[/TD]
[TD].7844[/TD]
[TD].7630[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Massachusetts[/TD]
[TD]45[/TD]
[TD].5556[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD].0020[/TD]
[TD]14-5-4 (1-1)[/TD]
[TD].6957[/TD]
[TD].6909[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Wisconsin[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD].5547[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD].0051[/TD]
[TD]20-8-1 (1-1)[/TD]
[TD].7069[/TD]
[TD].6918[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Bemidji State[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD].5535[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD].0111[/TD]
[TD]15-8-3 (3-2)[/TD]
[TD].6173[/TD]
[TD].6036[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]Army[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD].5518[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD].0031[/TD]
[TD]15-5-1 (3-2)[/TD]
[TD].7167[/TD]
[TD].7023[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]Quinnipiac[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD].5490[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD].0045[/TD]
[TD]17-6-4 (2-1)[/TD]
[TD].6870[/TD]
[TD].6686[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]Lake Superior[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD].5483[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD].0049[/TD]
[TD]15-6-3 (3-2)[/TD]
[TD].6688[/TD]
[TD].6436[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]Bowling Green[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD].5477[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD].0041[/TD]
[TD]18-10-1 (0-2)[/TD]
[TD].6690[/TD]
[TD].6653[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]St. Cloud State[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD].5426[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD].0036[/TD]
[TD]17-9-0 (3-3)[/TD]
[TD].6538[/TD]
[TD].6583[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]Canisius[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD].5424[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD].0000[/TD]
[TD]10-5-0 (1-1)[/TD]
[TD].6667[/TD]
[TD].6811[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]Boston University[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD].5391[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD].0079[/TD]
[TD]10-4-1 (3-1)[/TD]
[TD].6400[/TD]
[TD].6361[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]Clarkson[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD].5387[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD].0038[/TD]
[TD]11-7-4 (2-3)[/TD]
[TD].6114[/TD]
[TD].6212[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]Michigan[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD].5310[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD].0055[/TD]
[TD]15-10-1 (1-0)[/TD]
[TD].5788[/TD]
[TD].5711[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


You could make that argument too, and if they went with that, would it be horribly unfair? I don't think so.

In any event, has it been fun charting our way into the unknown? Yes, definitely. But I do prefer having a more known criteria in place for picking the field. If you want to have a bunch of flexibility for seeding/swapping teams around within the field, go for it.

 

[lakersparty]

To me, the loser of Bemidji/LSSU should be in. WCHA gets 3 in.

The way the polls have gone, I feel like the perception is that it’s only true that Bemidji will be in if they lose. The pollsters seem to be harder on Lake State, and I am concerned that if LSSU loses, BGSU may be the third team from the WCHA.

Lake State seems to be hovering around 17 in the recent human polls with Bowling Green ahead of them at 16.

 

[J.D.]

If the committee uses that broken PWR to pick Canisius over UMD...

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

If the committee uses that broken PWR to pick Canisius over UMD...

Going 8-5-0 in Atlantic Hockey is like going 24-0-0 in the NCHC. AND, Canisius didn't lose five times to St. Cloud State! : - p

 

[J.D.]

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/power16.php

 

[JohnsonsJerseys]

Where I think things currently stand with the committee...
Bubble:
Denver

Just so I know I'm not missing something. You're talking about the Denver team that is now three games under 0.500? The team that barely beat Omaha in the QF? The team that if it were it not for UND tipping a DU pass into their own goal would have been shut out last night? That's the Denver team you still think is on the bubble? Really?

Maybe if DU had beaten Sue by 3 and went on to beat Cindy by 4 or 5 today you might have a case that they were coming on late and deserved consideration. Where it not for the UND blunder and Chrona standing on his head last night that game could have been 5-0. Omaha might barely squeak into the field and they are four games OVER 0.500.

I'm sorry, but talking DU in the tourney at this point is straight up delusional. What committee member is going to have the stones to make the case to put a team three games under 0.500 into the tourney field? I'm sorry the NCHC can't get all eight teams in the tourney every year like they think they deserve, but c'mon... seriously. Just a touch of reality would make this discussion so much more credible.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Just so I know I'm not missing something. You're talking about the Denver team that is now three games under 0.500? The team that barely beat Omaha in the QF? The team that if it were it not for UND tipping a DU pass into their own goal would have been shut out last night? That's the Denver team you still think is on the bubble? Really?

Maybe if DU had beaten Sue by 3 and went on to beat Cindy by 4 or 5 today you might have a case that they were coming on late and deserved consideration. Where it not for the UND blunder and Chrona standing on his head last night that game could have been 5-0. Omaha might barely squeak into the field and they are four games OVER 0.500.

I'm sorry, but talking DU in the tourney at this point is straight up delusional. What committee member is going to have the stones to make the case to put a team three games under 0.500 into the tourney field? I'm sorry the NCHC can't get all eight teams in the tourney every year like they think they deserve, but c'mon... seriously. Just a touch of reality would make this discussion so much more credible.

I really miss not having emoticons. This post deserves a bunch of them. : - P

I'm only going to say it was fun knowing you JohnsonsJerseys...I am now adding you to my ignore list. I cannot stand people making strawman arguments, and that is all you do. Enjoy your life! : - )