NCAA Tourney Team Selection Options

[Fighting Sioux 23]

David Carle has DU as a #1 seed regardless of how this game ends

: - p

I'm sure he will be lobbying for the NCAA to just award DU the national title if they win this one.

 

[J.D.]

I think that's a minor and UND will score and I can go to bed

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

I think that's a minor and UND will score and I can go to bed

Yeah, I agree with the minor call. That was pretty textbook boarding.

DU is a top 10-12 team. I don't know if they will get the nod for the NCAA Tournament, but if they do, I would hate to be that 1 seed.

I do think North Dakota's win means the winner of the Bemidji State / LSSU game is now a lock.

 

[J.D.]

I think Denver is gonna make the tournament

If I was seeding teams right now, my 1 seeds would be UND, BC, Minnesota State and winner of Wisconsin/Minnesota. Loser of that is the top #2 seed.

 

[J.D.]

Followed by St. Cloud. Or flip St. Cloud and tomorrow night's loser. Either way.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

I think Denver is gonna make the tournament

If I was seeding teams right now, my 1 seeds would be UND, BC, Minnesota State and winner of Wisconsin/Minnesota. Loser of that is the top #2 seed.

Yep. Completely agree on the 1 seeds. You could make an argument for any of them to be the #1 overall too.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Where I think things currently stand with the committee...

Locks: (12 teams)
Bemidji State / LSSU Winner
Boston College
Boston University
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Minnesota Duluth
Minnesota State Mankato
North Dakota
Quinnipiac
St. Cloud State
Wisconsin

Bubble: (6 teams: up to 4 can get in)
American International
Army
Bemidji State / LSSU Loser
Denver
Nebraska Omaha
Providence

Need to win Conference Tournament: (6 teams)
Canisius
Colgate
Massachusetts Lowell
Niagara
Northern Michigan
St. Lawrence

 

[Numbers]

I think Denver is gonna make the tournament

If I was seeding teams right now, my 1 seeds would be UND, BC, Minnesota State and winner of Wisconsin/Minnesota. Loser of that is the top #2 seed.

I would completely agree with this, but I'm not sure yet in what order I would put those #1s. Depends on the HEA and WCHA tourney.
I also agree that the winner of BSU/LSSU is now a lock.

If we get
1s - NoDak, BC, Mankato, Minnesota
2s - Wisconsin, Massachusetts, SCSU, ?
3s - BU, Michigan, BSU/LSSU winner, UMD - although one of these will be elevated to the 2-band
4s - AHA and ECAC Champs...

That leaves 3 spots open. Who can fill them?
No one from B10, really
From NCHC, we would have Omaha and Denver (I would favor Denver)
From WCHA, we would have the BSU/LSSU loser
From HEA, we would have Providence
And, if there are upsets, we would have QU and/or AIC to choose from.

If there are no upsets, it's WCHA3, HEA4, and either Omaha or Denver.
If there are upsets, of all of these, should Providence beat Massachusetts, I think they have a strong case. First in. If they lose, wow. Toss up.
Continuing, I would now have 2 spots, and I would be looking at either QU or AIC, the BSU/LSSU loser, or Den/Omaha. I think I would go for the WCHA team, and then QU or AIC, as I discussed earlier in another post.
However, if Prov loses to Mass, then you get, in my opinion, WCHA3, QU/AIC, and then......toss up between Prov and Den/Omaha. (This gives NCHC a lot of credit, but it's a case of picking a 4th team from one conference.)

So, to me, only in the rare case in which both AIC and QU lose, is there a chance that the WCHA doesn't put in 3 teams.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Followed by St. Cloud. Or flip St. Cloud and tomorrow night's loser. Either way.

An argument could be made for SCSU to get a #1 seed if they win tomorrow night and Minnesota State loses in the WCHA Semifinal. I don't think it would happen, and I wouldn't agree with it...but an argument could be made. They would be 2-0-1 against North Dakota, along with 5 wins against Duluth and an NCHC Tournament title. That is a pretty impressive resume.

 

[Numbers]

Where I think things currently stand with the committee...

Locks: (12 teams)
Bemidji State / LSSU Winner
Boston College
Boston University
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Minnesota Duluth
Minnesota State Mankato
North Dakota
Quinnipiac
St. Cloud State
Wisconsin

Bubble: (6 teams: up to 4 can get in)
American International
Army
Bemidji State / LSSU Loser
Denver
Nebraska Omaha
Providence

Need to win Conference Tournament: (6 teams)
Canisius
Colgate
Massachusetts Lowell
Niagara
Northern Michigan
St. Lawrence

I think I am right with you on this, as you can see. However, I have a hard time seeing Army as a possibility for an at-large. I would see AIC as a possibility for an at-large, but not Army.

 

[Dan]

Denver is 10-13-1 and hasn't beaten a team not named CC or UNO since Jan. 17 - and I say that as a Pioneer season ticket holder the last four years. I'm not a fan, but I'll always root for them if they're not playing Miami or UNH. Still, the reality of their wins this season...

3 - Colorado College
3 - Omaha
2 - North Dakota
1 - Miami
1 - Western Michigan
0 - Minnesota Duluth
0 - St. Cloud

They wouldn't be in tournament conversation if their jerseys didn't say 'Denver' on them. I'm not sure why they even deserve to get in over Omaha - The Mavericks beat DU twice, UND twice, WMU twice, SCSU once and tied UMD as part of their 14-10-1 season ledger. Both teams fattened up on CC (although Denver also lost once to CC) and split with Miami...

Denver has proven little this season, other than they get up for North Dakota...

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

I think I am right with you on this, as you can see. However, I have a hard time seeing Army as a possibility for an at-large. I would see AIC as a possibility for an at-large, but not Army.

You are probably right. My thought process for keeping Army in the bubble/at-large section is this: Conference Tournaments go chalk, with Army losing to AIC in the Atlantic Hockey title game, and the committee wanting to have a more balanced East/West field. There just aren't that many eastern teams this year with a decent record, particularly a military school that is 12-0-1 in their last 13 games (and would be 13-1-1 in their last 15 in my scenario).

Again, you are probably right, and they almost certainly would have to win the Atlantic Hockey tournament to get in...but I just can't get myself to bump them down to "must win conference tourney" status just yet.

 

[J.D.]

Denver did dip below Omaha in KRACH with this loss but that would be a weird punishment if that was the deciding factor. They went 3-2 against Omaha including a deciding 5th game if you will in conference tournament on neutral ice. I just think historical data enters the equation. The bids have to come from somewhere and I don't think it should go to a Bowling Green just because they have a better record.

 

[J.D.]

But as I keep saying I will not be crying for any of these bubble teams if they are left out. Denver will have no complaints if they are left out at 10-13-1.

 

[BCeagle]

I just use the eye test and there is no way 4 or 5 teams from HE deserve to be in. 3 is a gift. I'd take 3 from the B1g, I think Mankato is the equal of any of the B1g teams, I don't think the NCHC is as good recent years even though ND is . 2 at most for AH and 1 for ECAC, though if Clarkson wins a lot here a the end you might put them in.

I would say BC and UMass are definite and the 3rd spot between BU, PC, or UML but keep in mind BU only played about half their games plus winning pct. and BU got knocked out in HE Tournament by UML

 

[jjmc85]

If Denver gets in I think UConn should get in. Hockey East and NCHC each have the same number of bids on average since realignment. UConn finished under .500 but the beat BC in regulation so there’s that. I know they lost 3 regulation games UMass and BC and also lost in OT to BU and BC but all those teams are basically locks so losing close to them are basically wins, right? Also they beat both UMass and BC in the shootout so there you go. If we’re giving credit to Denver for losing to good teams in a historically good conference, gotta give credit to UConn for doing the same thing.

 

[jjmc85]

Apparently I am also unable to use the emoticons on this board now but hopefully the point comes across without them...

 

[BCeagle]

If Denver gets in I think UConn should get in. Hockey East and NCHC each have the same number of bids on average since realignment. UConn finished under .500 but the beat BC in regulation so there’s that. I know they lost 3 regulation games UMass and BC and also lost in OT to BU and BC but all those teams are basically locks so losing close to them are basically wins, right? Also they beat both UMass and BC in the shootout so there you go. If we’re giving credit to Denver for losing to good teams in a historically good conference, gotta give credit to UConn for doing the same thing.

True but I believe when UConn beat BC, BC at that time were missing key players to the world juniors games

 

[J.D.]

UConn is ahead of PC in KRACH but that game the other day had to leave a mark. It's easy for me. If Providence beats UMass, they are in. If PC loses I still think they would be taken as the next HE team if it came to that. Maybe the committee says the hell with the mediocre W/L bubble teams and gives the WCHA 4 and AHA 2. But when the tournament was kept at 16 teams this year, they opened the door for this conversation between .500 "power" teams against inflated "lesser" teams.

 

[jjmc85]

Alternatively if we’re gonna consider historical data, let’s do it. Can someone calculate the pairwise comprising of all the results of 2019-2020 and 2020-2021? Just go by that. Maybe Cornell will make the tournament this year without playing a regular season game.