NCAA Tourney Team Selection Options

[J.D.]

Party is over for UConn. And I don't see any reason both LSSU and Bemidji should be in over BG if they lose today.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Party is over for UConn. And I don't see any reason both LSSU and Bemidji should be in over BG if they lose today.

Yep. We can remove Connecticut off the bubble, and it looks like Northeastern will be following them here shortly.

 

[J.D.]

Bowling Green...I think you have played yourself out of the tournament. Bemidji/LSSU winner is in and loser of that game could get in too.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

The Michigan/Ohio State and Niagara/Robert Morris won't really change much, so....

Locks: (10 teams)
Boston College
Boston University
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Minnesota Duluth
Minnesota State Mankato
North Dakota
Quinnipiac
St. Cloud State
Wisconsin

Bubble: (9 teams: up to 6 can get in)
American International
Army
Bemidji State
Bowling Green
Denver
Lake Superior State
Michigan
Nebraska Omaha
Providence

Need to win Conference Tournament: (9 teams)
Canisius
Colgate
Massachusetts Lowell
Niagara
Northern Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Robert Morris
St. Lawrence

While I think Bowling Green is probably on the outside looking in, I'll keep a 20-win team on the bubble for now. If the rest of the tournaments go chalk, my guess is it would come down to BGSU, DU, and UNO for the last spot.

 

[Critical Thinker]

You can take BG out. Those 20 wins come with 10 losses. They have losing head-to-head records against Lake State and Bemidji, and couldn't make it out of the WCHA first round while the others moved on. Both should get in before BG, and there's no way the WCHA is getting 4.

 

[J.D.]

I agree with that

 

[Chuck Murray]

Party is over for UConn.

As if it were ever a realistic possibility beyond someone's fertile HEPI-fueled delusional imagination ...

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

I agree with that

I started a lengthy post outlining how BGSU could still have a chance as a 20-win team, particularly with 2 wins on the road against Quinnipiac. Then I saw that they only have 18 Division 1 wins. I agree...they are done.

If the brackets go chalk, I believe the last at-large spot will come down to Denver and Nebraska Omaha.

 

[J.D.]

Speaking of Quinnipiac, they lost two games to what people now think is the 4th WCHA team. If QU somehow loses in the title game they should not be a lock for the tournament. There is nothing impressive whatsoever about their resume other than W/L record. Feasting on Colgate, SLU and Atlantic Hockey should not be an automatic ticket to the NCAAs.

If I had to pick a field right now:

ECAC: Tournament winner
Atlantic Hockey: Tournament winner

Hockey East: BC, BU, UMass

Big Ten: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan

NCHC: North Dakota, St. Cloud State, UMD, Denver

WCHA: Minnesota State, Bemidji State, LSSU

That's it. I got 15. I can't pull the trigger on a 5th NCHC team, Bowling Green, Providence, or QU if they lose title game. To me, none of these teams would have a real complaint if left out. But I do give the nod to Denver as my #15 team.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Speaking of Quinnipiac, they lost two games to what people now think is the 4th WCHA team. If QU somehow loses in the title game they should not be a lock for the tournament. There is nothing impressive whatsoever about their resume other than W/L record. Feasting on Colgate, SLU and Atlantic Hockey should not be an automatic ticket to the NCAAs.

Up until yesterday, Boston College failed twice to beat the 10th best team in Hockey East in regulation. Were they not a lock before yesterday?

I think QU is a lock. They have done enough (with enough of a track record), to warrant inclusion, even if they slip up in one game. Although, I can certainly understand why BC would want nothing to do with them in the national tourney.

 

[J.D.]

I don't get that comparison. And I have nothing against QU. They have a good program. BC has three wins over teams considered at large locks and another two over Providence. All I am saying about QU is I don't think it would be crazy to select Omaha ahead of them or even Bowling Green. Doesn't mean it will happen and probably wouldn't but I don't see how what they have done is so much better than those other teams. I couldn't care less if BC has to play them.

 

[JohnsonsJerseys]

You can take Tech fans' opinions of NCHC teams with a grain of salt. They are still extremely [focused on reality and facts]...

One can also can take NCHC fans' opinions of NCHC teams with a grain of salt. Through their red mist colored glasses any team who wears an NCHC patch on their jersey is tourney worthy, regardless of their record. Don't you dare tell them otherwise. I'm shocked no one has tried to make a case for Miami yet. Maybe that is yet to come and that the NCHC should fill all the West slots this season... just because. The most obvious point made by most fans (including those not from Michigan Tech): If you can't even finish in the top half of your own conference, your season is over. Win your conference tourney fine, you're in. But at that point DU has beaten UNO again and UNO is barely above 0.500. They're out.

Everyone Else: "Statement of the obvious: DU has a losing record. They are not tourney worthy."
NCHC Fans: "But but but... They play in the NCHC...It's sooo hard...."

They feel that if the NCHC doesn't get five teams in the tourney every year, some great, tragic crime has occurred and all of college hockey should cry a river of tears for them that flows North through Grand Forks.

 

[J.D.]

I don't like saying Denver is in nor are they a slam dunk. I am not even pro NCHC. Just doing my best trying to evaluate the competing bubble teams. In the end it's basically picking out of a hat. But just because Denver is under .500 in the NCHC doesn't automatically mean they aren't better than these other bubble teams. Picking the last 2/3 teams will not be easy.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

I don't get that comparison. And I have nothing against QU. They have a good program. BC has three wins over teams considered at large locks and another two over Providence. All I am saying about QU is I don't think it would be crazy to select Omaha ahead of them or even Bowling Green. Doesn't mean it will happen and probably wouldn't but I don't see how what they have done is so much better than those other teams. I couldn't care less if BC has to play them.

That's fair. I think QU is lock. It helps with the East/West balance; QU won a lot of games; and the Bobcats have a history of strong showings on the national stage. Maybe I'll put it this way, I think QU is as much of a lock as BU, and I think they are both locks at this stage. We need 16 teams, and they have to come from somewhere.

That being said, if it came down to QU and Bowling Green, it would be a very interesting conversation in the committee room. I just don't see it going down that way. QU is probably at least a #3 seed, and could be a #2 seed if they win the ECAC Tournament.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

One can also can take NCHC fans' opinions of NCHC teams with a grain of salt. Through their red mist colored glasses any team who wears an NCHC patch on their jersey is tourney worthy, regardless of their record. Don't you dare tell them otherwise. I'm shocked no one has tried to make a case for Miami yet. Maybe that is yet to come and that the NCHC should fill all the West slots this season... just because. The most obvious point made by most fans (including those not from Michigan Tech): If you can't even finish in the top half of your own conference, your season is over. Win your conference tourney fine, you're in. But at that point DU has beaten UNO again and UNO is barely above 0.500. They're out.

Everyone Else: "Statement of the obvious: DU has a losing record. They are not tourney worthy."
NCHC Fans: "But but but... They play in the NCHC...It's sooo hard...."

They feel that if the NCHC doesn't get five teams in the tourney every year, some great, tragic crime has occurred and all of college hockey should cry a river of tears for them that flows North through Grand Forks.

Who here is making this argument? Anyone? Holy Butthurt Strawman Argument Batman.

 

[Numbers]

I think along the same lines as many others:
Locks: B10 - Wisc, Minn, Mich
WCHA - Mankato
NCHC - NoDak, UMD, SCSU
HEA - BC, Mass, BU
AHA - AIC
ECAC - One Bid

Bubble: Bemidji, LSSU, Denver, Omaha, Providence, Quinnipiac

Most Likely: QU to win the ECAC, and then the last spots go to, in order:
Winner of Bem/LSSU, Prov (if they win the semi), Loser of Bem/LSSU, Prov (if they lose the semi), and Den or Omaha. If Denver even gets the UND game to OT, i know that is very intangible, but I think they would be the choice over Omaha at that.

#1 seeds: NoDak, BC, Mankato Wisc/Minn
#2 seeds: Wisc/Minn, Mich if they beat Minn, SCSU/UMD winner, BU or Mass, and then the last one is Mass/BU/QU/PC if Minn beats Mich
#3 seeds: SCSU/UMD loser, Mich if Minn beats Mich, Mass or BU, QU or Prov, BSU/LSSU
#4 seeds: AIC, remainders

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Numbers and J.D.,

Are you looking at it from a who you think should be a lock/make the tournament? Or, who you think the committee would consider a lock/make the tournament?

That may be a source of our, minimal, disagreement.

Also, Numbers, are you considering AIC a lock, even if they lose in the Atlantic Hockey Tournament? Or are you basically saying Atlantic Hockey will just get their auto bid, and you think AIC will get that bid?

 

[J.D.]

I am definitely NOT saying what I think the committee will do. This is purely how I look at what the field should be. I do think that in a 16 team field with fewer competing teams that the NCHC is getting at least 4 in. And yes, QU is probably a lock. Hell, they might even say AIC is too. The funny thing is a league like the WCHA is going to look back on this season and wish this is how they always pick teams. Maybe the WCHA should never play non league games again!

 

[Numbers]

Numbers and J.D.,

Are you looking at it from a who you think should be a lock/make the tournament? Or, who you think the committee would consider a lock/make the tournament?

That may be a source of our, minimal, disagreement.

Also, Numbers, are you considering AIC a lock, even if they lose in the Atlantic Hockey Tournament? Or are you basically saying Atlantic Hockey will just get their auto bid, and you think AIC will get that bid?

I think AIC is a lock, and my reasoning is that, even if they lose, their record (never mind schedule) is comparable to the bubble teams in the West. So, I would think in the following way:

From the East:
HEA - BC, BU, Mass, Prov on the bubble
ECAC - QU
AHA - AIC

If AIC or QU lose the tourney, and Prov gets an at large, that still in only 6 teams from the EAST (we'll leave the possibility of 2 upsets alone here for a minute). In that scenario, I think that the committee, with no way of comparing that actually has a metric, is going to choose to go 9-7 rather than 10-6.

Now, if something really strange happens, like PSU or NMU winning a tourney, then that goes out the window.

In the unusual case where QU and AIC both lose their conference tourneys, then only ONE of them will get in.

So, it may be better to say something like this:
Locks:
B10 - Minn, Wisc, Mich
NCHC - NoDak, SCSU, UMD
WCHA - Mankato
HEA - BC, Mass, BU

And, that is 10 spots. The final 6 filled by:
AHA winner
ECAC winner
Then...
Tourney upsets
AIC, QU, Bemidji, LSSU, Providence, Denver/Omaha

Where you pick in order going down the list.

 

[Numbers]

Who should make the tournament is a rabbit hole not worth going down, because it would include things like trying to compare how many teams actually played in the east this year, and the relative strength of conferences, and COVID breaks, and AIC not having played for almost 8 weeks (is that a plus or minus for them?), and so many other things.