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NCAA Hockey - 2023/24 **Insert Witty Tagline**

Per the matrix, the following teams are on the bubble: Quinnipiac, PSU, Michigan.
Interestingly, UMass is currently showing a 33% chance of finishing 12th, but this must involve scenarios where there aren't five bid stealers, because they're showing as 100% in. Simliar with Denver, who would fall to 12th tonight with a loss to CC, but they're showing as 100% in despite being able to finish as low as 13th.

Bid stealers:
AHA: winner of Bentley and Holy Cross
CCHA: Minnesota State - they're already in since St Thomas is ineligible under reclassification rules
Big Ten: none
ECAC: Dartmouth/Cornell/Harvard/Clarkson
HE: Northeastern
NCHC: ASU/NoDak/CC
 
Spartanforlife4 said:
Per the matrix, the following teams are on the bubble: Quinnipiac, PSU, Michigan.
Interestingly, UMass is currently showing a 33% chance of finishing 12th, but this must involve scenarios where there aren't five bid stealers, because they're showing as 100% in. Simliar with Denver, who would fall to 12th tonight with a loss to CC, but they're showing as 100% in despite being able to finish as low as 13th.

Bid stealers:
AHA: winner of Bentley and Holy Cross
CCHA: Minnesota State - they're already in since St Thomas is ineligible under reclassification rules
Big Ten: none
ECAC: Dartmouth/Cornell/Harvard/Clarkson
HE: Northeastern
NCHC: ASU/NoDak/CC
Click to expand...
So this has been a question of mine for a while.

If ST is ineligible, per NCAA rules all of the games against them should not count in the pairwise and RPI. Are the systems removing them from the calcs? CHN? USCHO? the NCAA itself?
 
dxmnkd316 said:
So this has been a question of mine for a while.

If ST is ineligible, per NCAA rules all of the games against them should not count in the pairwise and RPI. Are the systems removing them from the calcs? CHN? USCHO? the NCAA itself?
Click to expand...
What's the rule source on that? If I had to guess, "ineligible" would mean ineligible in the sense that a team is not NCAA D1, not that games shouldn't count because a team is not tournament-eligible due to transitioning up a division. If their games didn't count then I would expect them to just not show up in the Pairwise.
 
Fun stuff in Hamilton last night. Colgate down 2-0, on power play, with their goalie pulled, final minute of regulation, in an elimination game. Cornell's Dalton Bancroft banks the puck off the boards to elude his man and is coming in on the empty net with nobody in front of him...

... and a Colgate skater jumps over the boards and sticks the puck away to create a Too Many Men penalty.

The refs awarded Cornell the goal, which I believe is known as the Jack Parker Rule after Everybody's Favorite.
 
Spartanforlife4 said:
What's the rule source on that? If I had to guess, "ineligible" would mean ineligible in the sense that a team is not NCAA D1, not that games shouldn't count because a team is not tournament-eligible due to transitioning up a division. If their games didn't count then I would expect them to just not show up in the Pairwise.
Click to expand...
Right but I've got my own RPI spreadsheet and I can never get them to align to USCHO or CHN while excluding ineligible teams.

Which is why I wish the NCAA would publish the exact rankings formula in the rules. Like spell it out exactly. And at the beginning of every season, list the teams eligible.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Right but I've got my own RPI spreadsheet and I can never get them to align to USCHO or CHN while excluding ineligible teams.

Which is why I wish the NCAA would publish the exact rankings formula in the rules. Like spell it out exactly. And at the beginning of every season, list the teams eligible.
Click to expand...
i was going to see if CHN and USCHO aligned since you said they sometimes don’t match, but USCHO’s links are all sorts of messed up and the current rankings link goes to a women’s article from 2023.
 
Denver wins yesterday, which takes away a bid thief.

ASU is in an interesting spot. Lose at all next weekend and they’re out, but if they win over WMU in the championship they jump all the way to the three seed line. Even a win over NoDak gives them the top four seed.

It’s looking like PSU will need to root for Quinnipiac to win both or lose the first. If QU makes it to the title game and then loses, PSU gets jumped and gets bumped out with two bid stealers winning this weekend.
 
Spartanforlife4 said:
Denver wins yesterday, which takes away a bid thief.

ASU is in an interesting spot. Lose at all next weekend and they’re out, but if they win over WMU in the championship they jump all the way to the three seed line. Even a win over NoDak gives them the top four seed.

It’s looking like PSU will need to root for Quinnipiac to win both or lose the first. If QU makes it to the title game and then loses, PSU gets jumped and gets bumped out with two bid stealers winning this weekend.
Click to expand...
It is absolutely shocking that PSU is needing help.
 
Spartanforlife4 said:
I forgot Hockey East went to all single elimination.
Click to expand...
That happened when Notre Dame left the conference and wound up with 11 teams. Instead of making the regular season mean more and saying teams finishing 9, 10, and 11 "Sorry, season's over" and have teams 1-8 have a best of three series, they give 1-5 a bye and teams 6-11 have a one-game play in on Wednesday and then four games on the weekend who decides who gets to go to the Garden.
 
Scarlet said:
That happened when Notre Dame left the conference and wound up with 11 teams. Instead of making the regular season mean more and saying teams finishing 9, 10, and 11 "Sorry, season's over" and have teams 1-8 have a best of three series, they give 1-5 a bye and teams 6-11 have a one-game play in on Wednesday and then four games on the weekend who decides who gets to go to the Garden.
Click to expand...
I like what the AHA does. Single elimination round 1 for seeds 7-11, then best of 3 for the quarterfinals and semifinals, then a single elimination final.
 
Jimjamesak said:
I'll never forget that UAA's three conference playoff series wins were against Fairbanks, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Sure, it's not much but it is something.
Click to expand...
Look, it's not that they can't be important to fans. I just don't think they're worthy of being an autobid or "conference champion"

It's a hill I'm going to die on every time it comes up.
 
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