Kepler
Si certus es dubita
It's actually quite simple. All you need to ask is if the Batter-Runner reached 1st base. Once he reaches 1st base the run is counted. If he doesn't reach first base, the run is negated.
It's not actually that simple, because you have to ask the same question about every forced runner, and that means you can have situations where the order of outs you get removes the force and screws it up.
I think it's still well-ordered and deterministic (unlike the ECAC tie breaker) but it's both simpler and less simple than I thought it was.