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MLB 2011 Part 1

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Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Kepler said:
Yep, years (and I mean, 30 years) ago I was into it. That and Bill James' Abstracts were my introduction to saber, like ten million other people.
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It costs money but sportingnews has it all online now where you basically get to be the GM of a team and draft your lineups and see how things work out. quite fun at times
 
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Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

unofan said:
A simple tally of HR or runs scored is made up?

If you meant all computed statistics are made up, sure. But some of these, like the QB rating in the NFL, are just rediculous. If I want to retake econometrics or calculus 3, I'll go back to college. In the meantime, give me a beer and a brat and let me watch the farking game.
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I don't mean to pick on you in particular, but I've seen this argument elsewhere and it irks me. You should enjoy watching the game however you want; I do so much the same way, in fact, though usually with Italian sausage rather than a brat. But I don't see how other fans talking stats, and not even during the game but in the context of evaluating player performance in another setting, impinges at all on your ability to do so.

Re. Cliff Lee in particular, he's obviously been incredible lately, but if you look at the whole season up to this point, even basic stats (ERA, WHIP, K/BB) will tell you that Hamels and especially Halladay are having better seasons.
 
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Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

jen said:
I will not stand for such blasphemy. :mad:


(which makes sense, because I'm sitting at a desk).
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Hey, when in Rome. If I were going to games most often in Milwaukee, I'd eat brats too. In NYC, a sausage with peppers and onions is the way to go.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

jmh said:
Hey, when in Rome. If I were going to games most often in Milwaukee, I'd eat brats too. In NYC, a sausage with peppers and onions is the way to go.
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I see your point if your hometown brats tend to be substandard and you don't have Secret Stadium Sauce on hand. Now that I think about it, I don't usually have brats at other ballparks (my mom always does though, to compare - she says Milwaukee still has the best).

Other ballpark favorites:
cheesesteak from Tony Luke's
Primanti sandwiches in Pitt
grilled Dodger dog
Tony Oliva's Cuban sandwich


I had been looking forward to fish tacos in SD for a long time, but got sick and missed my chance. An important and hard-earned lesson about waiting until the second game to try your ballpark signature food.
 
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Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

jmh said:
I don't mean to pick on you in particular, but I've seen this argument elsewhere and it irks me. You should enjoy watching the game however you want.
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What irks me is there is a significant portion (a minority, no doubt, but a sizeable one nonetheless) of baseball stat geeks who care more about the metrics themselves than the game upon which the metrics are based. It's almost like they view the game as nothing more than simply the supplier of a data set, with which they get to start the real fun. The contest on the field isn't what matters, but rather the one on paper. They are the people who can recite things like a pitcher's VORP and xFIP, but ****ed if they know the difference between a curveball and a slider. Which is fine as it goes, though I would hope you can understand why people who do know the difference between a slider and a curveball get upset when someone who doesn't invariably proclaims to know the sport better.

I think it boils down to the fact that people of that mold are the polar opposite of most sports fans. Most people watch sports because there's an innate randomness; on any given day, Milan High School can upset Muncie Central for the title. Even fans of Muncie Central generally watch for the same reason; if the better team always won, sports would be insanely dull. The uber-stat head hates outcomes like that, because they want to be able to predict everything. They want the Globetrotters to never lose, because then their model will always be right.
 
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Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Shirtless Guy said:
Sorry to discuss the math here but FIP = (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP generalized and I know (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/batter faced, any ideas how to get it to IP? Strat is all about percentages so I know a certain pitcher allows a HR 2.1% of the time, (BB+HBP-IBB) 4.2%, K 11.6% and the OppOBP is 24.3% I should be able to calculate FIP right?
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To simplify, anyone have an idea of how to get from batters faced to innings pitched?
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

JF_Gophers said:
There is no simple way to get to IP from batters faced. You could estimate.
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Well like I said, I know how often a player doesn't get on base per batter faced for a given player...the question is what is the correction factor for how often extra outs occur outside of an plate appearance (K-wild pitch, the 2nd out of a double play, the 2nd and 3rd out of a triple play, caught stealing, single where batter is thrown out at second)...
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

joecct said:
AB = IP + hits + errors
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I think you meant 3*IP + hits + errors.

It's not quite that simple in at least one way: double plays register 2/3 IP with only 1 PA (or AB). There are also pick offs and caught stealings -- outs registered without a PA.

Shirtless: I'm not sure what you are trying to do. If you want to generate the advanced stats, why not either use the base metrics that are collected in innumerable places or, easier still, just use FG or one of the other sites that actually tracks the stats?

Something I would love to have is a database where you enter a set of games (there must be some standard game number scheme that the saber people use) and have it spit out all the stats. I have something like 1700 Met games scored in books over the last 40 years, and that would be the fastest way to generate "games seen" stats.
 
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Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Kepler said:
I think you meant 3*IP + hits + errors.

It's not quite that simple in at least one way: double plays register 2/3 IP with only 1 PA (or AB). There are also pick offs and caught stealings -- outs registered without a PA.
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The bold part would the the simple answer but there must be some known correction factor for what percentage of outs that don't occur as a simple Popout, Lineout, Flyout, groundout, Foulout, strikeout, etc...without a double play, etc).
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Shirtless Guy said:
The bold part would the the simple answer but there must be some known correction factor for what percentage of outs that don't occur as a simple Popout, Lineout, Flyout, groundout, Foulout, strikeout, etc...without a double play, etc).
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3*IP+runs+LOB-inherited runners?
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Shirtless Guy said:
The bold part would the the simple answer but there must be some known correction factor for what percentage of outs that don't occur as a simple Popout, Lineout, Flyout, groundout, Foulout, strikeout, etc...without a double play, etc).
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I dunno if there "must" be one but IINM PA/BF has been recorded / reverse-engineered from all the box scores of all the NL/AL games ever played, so we don't have to infer (unless you're using some non-recoverable range of games).

Apropos of all we've talked about, coincidentally Eric Simon wrote this piece on the Mets' SB site, today.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Kepler said:
Apropos of all we've talked about, coincidentally Eric Simon wrote this piece on the Mets' SB site, today.
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Ah yes, the, "I don't do those things, so stop saying that, even though it's likely that a statistically relevant subset of stat geeks do" defense...

It's more than a bit ironic that a stat geek defends the honor of stat geeks everywhere using personal anecdotes and not statistics.

I wish gallup would do one poll on this around the all-star break rather than yet another GOP candidates approval ratings poll.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

unofan said:
3*IP+runs+LOB-inherited runners?
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I dont have runs, LOB, Inherited runners in a strat card.
I have BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, Out, Single, Double, Triple, Homerun, Walk(BB+HBP), strikeout, Out(GB), Out(FB), Out(PO/LO), Defensive adjusted plays (Errors, etc)
 
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Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

If I can find the percent of base runners that are LOB and a percent of baserunners that score, we can figure out the number of baserunners that "run into outs" and come up with the correction factor for batters that reach base...
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Twins hanging on to a 1-0 lead in the 8th. They got their 1-run in the 1st inning.

Must have found some of our pitching (and fielding).
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

JF_Gophers said:
Twins hanging on to a 1-0 lead in the 8th. They got their 1-run in the 1st inning.

Must have found some of our pitching (and fielding).
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I just wish they could produce more runs. Relying on your staff to throw a shutout every other game just isn't smart.
 
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