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MLB 2011 Part 1

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Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Kepler said:
That torpedos McCourt's divorce settlement, too. Dude must have nailed Selig's daughter or something.
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It really seems like McCourt has mismanaged the Dodgers money in order to fund his personal life and now he needs this money not only to bail out the team but to continue the lifestyle he is accustomed to and pay his ex-wife off.

I am glad Selig rejected the deal. He (nor his wife) deserve to own the team.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

JF_Gophers said:
It really seems like McCourt has mismanaged the Dodgers money in order to fund his personal life and now he needs this money not only to bail out the team but to continue the lifestyle he is accustomed to and pay his ex-wife off.

I am glad Selig rejected the deal. He (nor his wife) deserve to own the team.
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Yeah, reading Selig's rationale it actually seems quite reasonable, apart from the PTI funny it caused.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Nats win 11 out of 12 and the manager resigns because of lack of a contract extension.

Kepler is a Mets fan. What did he put in the water up @ Point of Rocks?
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

joecct said:
What did he put in the water up @ Point of Rocks?
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We actually are in a perfect position to doctor the DC water supply.

And Fort Detrick is only 10 miles away. Hmm.

(Given the demography of my town, people should actually probably be legitimately worried. This is the Land that Time Forgot.)
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

All stats are made up.

Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts FIP and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

JF_Gophers said:
All stats are made up.
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A simple tally of HR or runs scored is made up?

If you meant all computed statistics are made up, sure. But some of these, like the QB rating in the NFL, are just rediculous. If I want to retake econometrics or calculus 3, I'll go back to college. In the meantime, give me a beer and a brat and let me watch the farking game.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Shirtless Guy said:
Sorry but xFIP can't be that great of a measure when it has a guy like Zack Greinke at 2.13 xFIP...
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Anecdote isn't argument. All stats turn up counter-intuitive results in marginal cases. The thing to keep your eye on is predictive value -- that's all any metric is good for. xFIP is just another tool to help summarize past and predict future performance. Compared to other pitching stats people are more familiar it is infinitely better than W-L record, which should be retired as a nonsense stat, much better than ERA which incorporates things that aren't the pitcher's fault while hiding things which are, and somewhat better but should be used in conjunction with WHIP and OppBA.

unofan, I take "all stats are made up" to describe that investing a stat with "value" is always made up. Take your example: homeruns. That certainly can't be your only stat, or Dave Kingman is better than Ty Cobb. So stats get used in a mix, and like any statistical phenomenon, formulas can be refined, and new metrics chosen, to tell more of the story.

Everyone's free to track W-L ERA or HR RBI BA, grab a beer, and call it a day. I do that with hockey, for example, where I neither understand nor care about most advanced stats. But when someone then goes on to make a claim as if their metrics demonstrate something, they're going to be slaughtered in the ensuing logic battle. Math > opinion.
 
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Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Kepler said:
Anecdote isn't argument. All stats turn up counter-intuitive results in marginal cases. The thing to keep your eye on is predictive value -- that's all any metric is good for. xFIP is just another tool to help summarize past and predict future performance. Compared to other pitching stats people are more familiar it is infinitely better than W-L record, which should be retired as a nonsense stat, much better than ERA which incorporates things that aren't the pitcher's fault while hiding things which are, and somewhat better but should be used in conjunction with WHIP and OppBA.

unofan, I take "all stats are made up" to describe that investing a stat with "value" is always made up. Take your example: homeruns. That certainly can't be your only stat, or Dave Kingman is better than Ty Cobb. So stats get used in a mix, and like any statistical phenomenon, formulas can be refined, and new metrics chosen, to tell more of the story.

Everyone's free to track W-L ERA or HR RBI BA, grab a beer, and call it a day. I do that with hockey, for example, where I neither understand nor care about most advanced stats. But when someone then goes on to make a claim as if their metrics demonstrate something, they're going to be slaughtered in the ensuing logic battle. Math > opinion.
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I do think it does have value but you can't solely state that the best xFIP should win the cy young, I would contend that FIP would be a better choice in deciding the cy young since that is about what happened with the player, not what would happen in a neutral situation if he had an average HR/FB ratio. I love getting into stats like this, its why I love stratomatic baseball on sportingnews.com and why I spend so much time creating macros in a spreadsheet to analyze strat cards to try and make winning at it easier. Runs created is probably the biggest one for me when it comes to strat.

I most certainly agree that W-L record is useless in actually telling the story of how good a pitcher is. Its way better at saying how good the team seems to be when that pitcher is on the mound. ERA isn't great either, WHIP seems to be better. Other metrics that are newer certainly seem to be better but harder to comprehend. At least FIP/xFIP attempts to mirror ERA so that its a number people can comprehend the value of by having numbers similar to ERA. When I analyze strat cards, I try my best to calculate K/0, OppBA, OppSLG, OppRC calcs. I haven't gotten into FIP or WAR. Not sure I could with the information provided on a card.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Shirtless Guy said:
I do think it does have value but you can't solely state that the best xFIP should win the cy young, I would contend that FIP would be a better choice in deciding the cy young since that is about what happened with the player, not what would happen in a neutral situation if he had an average HR/FB ratio. I love getting into stats like this, its why I love stratomatic baseball on sportingnews.com and why I spend so much time creating macros in a spreadsheet to analyze strat cards to try and make winning at it easier. Runs created is probably the biggest one for me when it comes to strat.
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I wasn't arguing the xFIP leader should automatically win the Cy Young. I was saying Lee isn't head and shoulders above everybody and so, no, we can't just hand him the award yet. :)

It's definitely harder to get into unfamiliar stats, just as with any new information, and the fan will only get into it up to his level of interest. My wife, for instance, loves baseball but even ERA makes her eyes glaze over. At least, I think it's ERA, though she does nod off whenever I speak.

I particularly like the FanGraphs page on a stat because it gives percentile breakdowns for comparison. If somebody quotes a player's DRS, I have no intuition of how good a number is, and I need that support. Maybe after months of looking at it it will begin to stick. I've only known about WAR for about four years, and it's only now that I have a good instinctive feeling for why, say, Jose Reyes being over 5.0 is such an achievement.
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Kepler said:
I wasn't arguing the xFIP leader should automatically win the Cy Young. I was saying Lee isn't head and shoulders above everybody and so, no, we can't just hand him the award yet. :)

It's definitely harder to get into unfamiliar stats, just as with any new information, and the fan will only get into it up to his level of interest. My wife, for instance, loves baseball but even ERA makes her eyes glaze over. At least, I think it's ERA, though she does nod off whenever I speak.

I particularly like the FanGraphs page on a stat because it gives percentile breakdowns for comparison. If somebody quotes a player's DRS, I have no intuition of how good a number is, and I need that support. Maybe after months of looking at it it will begin to stick. I've only known about WAR for about four years, and it's only now that I have a good instinctive feeling for why, say, Jose Reyes being over 5.0 is such an achievement.
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One of the biggest things I hate is ERA of a reliever...part of his job is dealing with inherited runners which don't effect his ERA so I always thought that WHIP and % of Inherited runners scoring are some of the most important values for a reliever, granted some of this is not independent of the pitcher's defense but ERA even more useless for a reliever that enters the game quite regularly in the middle of an inning. Have you ever gotten into stratomatic baseball?
 
Re: MLB 2011 Part 1

Sorry to discuss the math here but FIP = (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP generalized and I know (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/batter faced, any ideas how to get it to IP? Strat is all about percentages so I know a certain pitcher allows a HR 2.1% of the time, (BB+HBP-IBB) 4.2%, K 11.6% and the OppOBP is 24.3% I should be able to calculate FIP right?
 
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