Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

On another note, Harvard looks very good this season and wins the Beanpot, and the Gophers reap the spoils too as their win puts us back at #4 in the PWR and in the hunt for a #1 seed in the Regionals.

Reading the BU thread you would think the team hadn't won a game in two months. Calling for new coach, calling for Bellows head, ready to write off the season.....

 

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

Reading the BU thread you would think the team hadn't won a game in two months. Calling for new coach, calling for Bellows head, ready to write off the season.....

Yeah, apparently getting outshot 46-17 in Boston’s most hallowed college hockey tournament is causing near cardiac arrest despite their high ranking.

 

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

Yeah, apparently getting outshot 46-17 in Boston’s most hallowed college hockey tournament is causing near cardiac arrest despite their high ranking.

With six (or was it seven?) guys on the USA World Juniors team I still can't believe they're not the clear No. 1. And is this Harvard's best team since the Gopher's heartbreaking loss back in '89?

 

[Numbers]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

It would seem from a cursory examination, that a win and a tie this weekend would be sufficient to continue to enhance our chances of a #1 seed. And, while many love the rivalry with NoDak, I would rather not play them in a one and done at Fargo. So, getting a #1 seed is going to be helpful in that.

 

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

It would seem from a cursory examination, that a win and a tie this weekend would be sufficient to continue to enhance our chances of a #1 seed. And, while many love the rivalry with NoDak, I would rather not play them in a one and done at Fargo. So, getting a #1 seed is going to be helpful in that.

I agree landing in the #1 seed spot increases the probability of winning the regional, but statistically it depends on how close to home they are. There's no guarantee that the Gophers will end up in Fargo. It's too early to even speculate on it, but just for fun the bracket last week by resident USCHO expert Jayson Moy with the Gophers as the 4th #1 seed looked like this:

East Regional (Providence):
14 Vermont vs. 4 Minnesota
10 Boston College vs. 7 Union

Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Cornell vs. 3 Boston University
12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 5 Harvard

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
15 Air Force vs. 2 Denver
11 Penn State vs. 6 Western Michigan

West Regional (Fargo):
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Minnesota-Duluth
9 North Dakota vs. 8 Providence

But since 2008 here are the stats for #1 seeds according to proximity to home:

Overall since 2008:

Teams playing in-state are 29-16 (.644)
Teams traveling out of state by bus are 27-20 (.574)
Teams flying are 40-60 (.400)

1 seeds are 11-1 in state, 17-3 by bus, 7-13 by flight, 35-17 overall (.673)
2 seeds are 9-9 in state, 1-3 by bus, 11-13 by flight, 21-25 overall (.457)
3 seeds are 4-4 in state, 9-10 by bus, 6-15 by flight, 19-29 overall (.396)
4 seeds are 5-2 in state, 0-4 by bus, 16-19 by flight, 21-25 overall (.457)

The big takeaway from these numbers is that if a #1 seed is playing close to home, you should pick them to win their regional. #1 seeds either playing in their home state or nearby are dominant in the tournament, with a 28-4 record since 2008. Once you put 1 seeds on a plane, they don't fare any better than anyone else, with a winning percentage of .350 -- actually worse than the winning percentage of #2 and #4 seeds that fly to their regionals. - Courtesy of SB Nation

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

Doesn't that make sense though? The best teams in he tournament get preference for travel.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

Doesn't that make sense though? The best teams in he tournament get preference for travel.

Agreed. Now, if there is ANY way to get UND and MN in the same bracket without bending the seedings too much, the NCAA will do that, IMO.

 

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

Agreed. Now, if there is ANY way to get UND and MN in the same bracket without bending the seedings too much, the NCAA will do that, IMO.

Brenthoven, do you say that because the NCAA wants to minimize travel expenses, or to maximize attendance/ticket revenues? Or both?

 

[The Rube]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

Brenthoven, do you say that because the NCAA wants to minimize travel expenses, or to maximize attendance/ticket revenues? Or both?

Both. Off the top of my head:

tUMD as a 1, MN as a 5, and UND as a 9? ALL in the west regional? CHA-CHING.

Bend those seedings as you must, but the general idea is there....

 

[Slap Shot]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

That regional doesn't need MN because it's already sold out.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

That regional doesn't need MN because it's already sold out.

Then we are screwed (using the term lightly) and being sent out east.

 

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

It's looks pretty certain Duluth will be in Fargo. Chances of leap frogging Denver for the 2nd #1 seed are slim with their remaining schedule looking light. So it doesn't look like the Gophers will be firing up the Greyhounds to Cincinnati either. So there's a fairly good chance the Gophers will be riding that "big ol' jet airliner" (Courtesy of Steve Miller Band).

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

Doesn't that make sense though? The best teams in he tournament get preference for travel.

That's not inherently true, though. Looking at the bracket Steve posted, NoDak is in the bottom half of seeds, yet they're playing in their backyard, to a friendly crowd, against the "home" team from the east coast. PROVICED! gets screwed in that bracket.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

That's not inherently true, though. Looking at the bracket Steve posted, NoDak is in the bottom half of seeds, yet they're playing in their backyard, to a friendly crowd, against the "home" team from the east coast. PROVICED! gets screwed in that bracket.

That's because they're a host. For non-hosts, that's what I'm talking about.

 

[Slap Shot]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

That's because they're a host. For non-hosts, that's what I'm talking about.

dx this has nothing to do with you saying anything out of the ordinary, but this conjured up one of my favorite scenes from Fletch:

Dr. Joseph Dolan: You know, it's a shame about Ed.
Fletch: Oh, it was. Yeah, it was really a shame. To go so suddenly like that.
Dr. Joseph Dolan: He was dying for years.
Fletch: Sure, but... the end was very... very sudden.
Dr. Joseph Dolan: He was in intensive care for eight weeks.
Fletch: Yeah, but I mean the very end, when he actually died. That was extremely sudden.

And of course who could forget:

Dr. Joseph Dolan: Right. Now, how long have you had these pains, Mr. Barber?
Fletch: No, that's "Babar".
Dr. Joseph Dolan: Two B's?
Fletch: One B. B-A-B-A-R.
Dr. Joseph Dolan: That's two.
Fletch: Yeah, but not right next to each other. I thought that's what you meant.
Dr. Joseph Dolan: Arnold Babar. Isn't there a children's book about an elephant named Babar?
Fletch: I don't know. I don't have any.
Dr. Joseph Dolan: No children?
Fletch: No elephant books.

And....

Madeline: I'm sorry, who are you again?
Fletch: I'm Frieda's boss.
Madeline: Who's Frieda?
Fletch: My secretary.

Ok I'll stop because I could do this all day.
[must resist steak sandwich, water buffalo, moon river....]

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

dx this has nothing to do with you saying anything out of the ordinary, but this conjured up one of my favorite scenes from Fletch:

I should watch this movie some time.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

It's looks pretty certain Duluth will be in Fargo. Chances of leap frogging Denver for the 2nd #1 seed are slim with their remaining schedule looking light. So it doesn't look like the Gophers will be firing up the Greyhounds to Cincinnati either. So there's a fairly good chance the Gophers will be riding that "big ol' jet airliner" (Courtesy of Steve Miller Band).

I think you can say Duluth will be in Fargo with any sort of certainty only if you believe two things will not happen. First, you believe that Minnesota will not catch Duluth in terms of overall seeding. If they do, since they are closer to Fargo, I think MN would end up in Fargo.

Second, that UND does not end up a four seed. If UND ends up seeded somewhere in the 13-16 band, it's almost a certainty neither UMD nor DU will be in Fargo because that will be a first round game against a conference foe, and one essentially playing at home to boot. Won't happen. One of the other two #1 seeds will be in Fargo in that scenario.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

I think you can say Duluth will be in Fargo with any sort of certainty only if you believe two things will not happen. First, you believe that Minnesota will not catch Duluth in terms of overall seeding. If they do, since they are closer to Fargo, I think MN would end up in Fargo.

Second, that UND does not end up a four seed. If UND ends up seeded somewhere in the 13-16 band, it's almost a certainty neither UMD nor DU will be in Fargo because that will be a first round game against a conference foe, and one essentially playing at home to boot. Won't happen. One of the other two #1 seeds will be in Fargo in that scenario.

Good post. Listen to SJHovey.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

Agreed. Now, if there is ANY way to get UND and MN in the same bracket without bending the seedings too much, the NCAA will do that, IMO.

This is exactly what I think. The history of the last few years shows this:

The committee will move the seeds within bands so as to minimize travel and increase attendance both.

Therefore, in this case:

#1 seed at Fargo: Almost certainly UMD, because Denver has to fly no matter what. If not UMD, then Denver. That means that the Gophers, as a #3 or #4 overall seed, will NOT play in Fargo. And, I think that's best for us. There is one caveat to that, however. And, that is if NoDak is a #4 seed as a home club. This would mean they would end up as 13 or 14 overall. In that case, neither UMD nor Denver can be there, because of the intra-conference rule. In that case, the Gophers, as a #1 seed, would certainly play in Fargo, and play the Sioux, er, Hawks, right away.

Gophers situations:
Odds are very high that UM will be either the #4 overall, or a #2 seed. We covered the #4 overall above.
As a #2 seed, if NoDak is a #3, Minnesota and North Dakota will play in the first round.
If Minnesota falls to a 3 seed, again, they would play NoDak if NoDak is a #2 seed. For saving money on flights, and for filling the barn (although UND won't need any help for that).

If the Gophers and NoDak end up as a #2 and #3 seed, then the Fargo Region will almost certainly be: UMD, NoDak, Minn, Bemidji, if BSU qualifies.

The other possibility is that the Gophers end up as a #2 or #3 seed, and UND falls to 13 or 14 overall, so a #4 seed. In that case, someone from further east as a #1 seed will fly to Fargo. Minnesota will probably bus there. But, fo course, the possible Sioux, er, Hawks matchup would be in Round 2, not Round 1.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

But as Slappy said, the west is sold out. So it doesn't matter which teams are there. That's a big strike.