Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

[Numbers]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

But as Slappy said, the west is sold out. So it doesn't matter which teams are there. That's a big strike.

There are 2 other things to consider:
1- Harvard in Providence rather than MN puts more butts in seats in Providence, so we get switched to Fargo, not for the West, bot for the East.
2- Flight costs. If the team has less than 400 miles to travel, it's a bus, not a plane. NCAA is paying, so......

 

[Numbers]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

I think you can say Duluth will be in Fargo with any sort of certainty only if you believe two things will not happen. First, you believe that Minnesota will not catch Duluth in terms of overall seeding. If they do, since they are closer to Fargo, I think MN would end up in Fargo.

Second, that UND does not end up a four seed. If UND ends up seeded somewhere in the 13-16 band, it's almost a certainty neither UMD nor DU will be in Fargo because that will be a first round game against a conference foe, and one essentially playing at home to boot. Won't happen. One of the other two #1 seeds will be in Fargo in that scenario.

I agree with the Second paragraph.
First paragraph: I see very little chance that anyone can catch UMD or Denver in the PWR. The RPI is too high. UMD would need a losing streak.

 

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

I think you can say Duluth will be in Fargo with any sort of certainty only if you believe two things will not happen. First, you believe that Minnesota will not catch Duluth in terms of overall seeding. If they do, since they are closer to Fargo, I think MN would end up in Fargo.

Second, that UND does not end up a four seed. If UND ends up seeded somewhere in the 13-16 band, it's almost a certainty neither UMD nor DU will be in Fargo because that will be a first round game against a conference foe, and one essentially playing at home to boot. Won't happen. One of the other two #1 seeds will be in Fargo in that scenario.

I'm obviously making a lot of assumptions mainly that the Gophers will indeed perform well enough to capture the 4th #1 seed. It's far too early to know. But do you really think the Gophers can pass Duluth and take over the 1st #1 seed? That seems like a long shot for various reasons including RPI, away record and their remain schedule. I would think DU would hold the 2nd #1 spot for similar reasons.

With UND, I don't know much about the team this season. But they're currently a #3 seed, and it's hard imagine them dropping to #4. If they do well in Kalamazoo this weekend, and the Broncos lose to Duluth in a couple weeks, that may be a nice bump for UND into a #2 seed or 7th or 8th in the PWR. That would most likely put UND and Duluth in Fargo. That seems more likely to me, but there's still a lot of hockey to be played.

As of yesterday (Feb. 15):

East Regional (Providence):
14 Boston College vs. 3 Harvard
11 Union vs. 8 Providence

Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Cornell vs. 4 Minnesota
12 St. Cloud State vs. 5 Boston University

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
15 Air Force vs. 2 Denver
9 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 7 Western Michigan

West Regional (Fargo):
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Minnesota-Duluth
10 North Dakota vs. 6 Penn State

 

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

I'm obviously making a lot of assumptions mainly that the Gophers will indeed perform well enough to capture the 4th #1 seed. It's far too early to know. But do you really think the Gophers can pass Duluth and take over the 1st #1 seed? That seems like a long shot for various reasons including RPI, away record and their remain schedule. I would think DU would hold the 2nd #1 spot for similar reasons.

With UND, I don't know much about the team this season. But they're currently a #3 seed, and it's hard imagine them dropping to #4. If they do well in Kalamazoo this weekend, and the Broncos lose to Duluth in a couple weeks, that may be a nice bump for UND into a #2 seed or 7th or 8th in the PWR. That would most likely put UND and Duluth in Fargo. That seems more likely to me, but there's still a lot of hockey to be played.

So to summarize the NCAA discussion, the Gophers could end up anywhere depending on how the rest of the season goes for everyone?

 

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

So to summarize the NCAA discussion, the Gophers could end up anywhere depending on how the rest of the season goes for everyone?

Well stated.

 

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

Fun to speculate and guess on all the possibilities, but let's hope the team just remains focused on doing what it takes to win their next game. They've worked very hard to put themselves in a very good position, so as long as they continue to do just that things will work out just fine.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

Fun to speculate and guess on all the possibilities, but let's hope the team just remains focused on doing what it takes to win their next game. They've worked very hard to put themselves in a very good position, so as long as they continue to do just that things will work out just fine.

This. Totally this. One way to look at things is that there are always 3 goals:
1- Reg Season Title. Doing well here. Just stay focused. win/tie this weekend will be a good result
2- Post Season Conf Title. Finishing 1st or 2nd in the Reg Season helps this one. Keep it going, boys.
3- NCAAs. We'll monitor that as we go, but not the focus yet.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

Suspect we'll be in the Fargo bracket with UND and UMD/Denver...or we'll be in New England lining up against BU. The reasons always follow the results.

 

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

Suspect we'll be in the Fargo bracket with UND and UMD/Denver...or we'll be in New England lining up against BU. The reasons always follow the results.

There could be room fro four teams in the bracket. UND down to 14th. Don't know what rest of schedule looks like for them.

Next weekend is big for B1G season champion implications.

 

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

There could be room fro four teams in the bracket. UND down to 14th. Don't know what rest of schedule looks like for them.

I would expect the FnHawks to sweep their two remaining series, Omaha at home and Miami on the road, although Omaha at #19 in the PairWise should come in very motivated. At #28 Miami's season is likely over.

If UND's struggles continue there is a good chance their first playoff series will not be in Grand Forks:

http://www.uscho.com/standings/nchc/2016-2017/

 

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

I would expect the FnHawks to sweep their two remaining series, Omaha at home and Miami on the road, although Omaha at #19 in the PairWise should come in very motivated. At #28 Miami's season is likely over.

If UND's struggles continue there is a good chance their first playoff series will not be in Grand Forks:

http://www.uscho.com/standings/nchc/2016-2017/

"IF" UND makes the tourney, a team that hosts a regional has to be placed there if it’s selected for the NCAA tournament. UND has been on second half skid winning only 5 of their last 12 games.

 

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

"IF" UND makes the tourney, a team that hosts a regional has to be placed there if it’s selected for the NCAA tournament. UND has been on second half skid winning only 5 of their last 12 games.

FYI I was referring to the first round of the NCHC playoffs, i.e. if they don't finish in the top half of their 8 team conference after their regular season comes to an end in two weeks.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

Minnesota should win 4 of the next 6 and that should set them up for the playoffs nicely.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

Schedules:

Minnesota: vs Wisc, Mich and MSU
Wisconsin: vs Minn, OSU, PSU

Which means that, a split this week (and we should actually get more than that) leaves us 3 points ahead with 4 to play, and we have the schedule advantage. So, BIG championship looks very doable.

NCAAs: Jim Dahl at collegehockeyranked.com says Minnesota will likely head to the BIG Tournament as a #1 Regional Seed with 5 wins. That also seems very doable.

 

[gopher wes]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

Schedules:

Minnesota: vs Wisc, Mich and MSU
Wisconsin: vs Minn, OSU, PSU

Which means that, a split this week (and we should actually get more than that) leaves us 3 points ahead with 4 to play, and we have the schedule advantage. So, BIG championship looks very doable.

NCAAs: Jim Dahl at collegehockeyranked.com says Minnesota will likely head to the BIG Tournament as a #1 Regional Seed with 5 wins. That also seems very doable.

Does a loss in the BTT change that? I'm sure it would depend who they play, right?

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

Schedules:

Minnesota: vs Wisc, Mich and MSU
Wisconsin: vs Minn, OSU, PSU

Which means that, a split this week (and we should actually get more than that) leaves us 3 points ahead with 4 to play, and we have the schedule advantage. So, BIG championship looks very doable.

NCAAs: Jim Dahl at collegehockeyranked.com says Minnesota will likely head to the BIG Tournament as a #1 Regional Seed with 5 wins. That also seems very doable.

UW has always had a difficult scheduling finish. For that reason prior to the weekend, PSU was actually our main competition. The sweep was 'uge for our chance at another B1G banner and top seed in the B1G's.

Edit: nice find Bonin...

Gopher recruit Casey Middelstadt:

https://twitter.com/Rossleivermann/status/833384184643215360

 

[Numbers]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

To be clear, my earlier post on this page meant to say:
5 wins before the BIG tourney should make the Gophers enter the BIG at 4th in the PWR or better. That is, they would go into the BIG as a #1 NCAA tourney seed.

As to the question: What if they don't win it?
Well, in that case, first, do the win the semi and lose the final? Or, lose the semi?

Some things depend on who they play. Assuming MSU and Mich lose on Thursday, then a split on the weekend for Minn probably means their RPI doesn't move. A Friday loss, and their RPI moves down about .0050, I think.

How that plays for the NCAAs, no one knows. It totally depends on the factors of who else is in contention, and how they are doing. As far the Gophers getting as high a seed as possible: It probably doesn't make any difference to us between #3 overall and #4 overall, because Harvard is likely the other of those 2, and there is the East/West thing.

Best scenario for getting #3 or #4 overall:
Harvard wins the ECAC tourney. (This is because that means Union can't. So, it prevents Union from overtaking us.)
UMD and Denver play in the NCHC final. (This is because that means Western Michigan loses in the semis at best.)
BC awakens from their recent funk and wins Hockey East tournament. (Keeps BU and Lowell from making a big run in the PWR.) Add in Providence making the finals of that tourney and you have even better situation for the Gophers.

Keep in mind that a long win streak by someone like Providence at this point, which might involve 8 games in a row, would be enough to really raise their RPI. That's why these things are estimates at best right now.

And, the BEST of all:
NoDak splits their last 4 games of the reg season, and loses in the NCHC quarters (which would be on the road) and doesn't qualify for the NCAAs at all.

 

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

FYI I was referring to the first round of the NCHC playoffs, i.e. if they don't finish in the top half of their 8 team conference after their regular season comes to an end in two weeks.

Oh ok ...I thought you knew that anyway, but you mentioned the PWR and my mind went to the NCAA tourney. As far as the NCAA tourney, UND is getting dangerously close to the at-large bid PWR where Canisius/AHC and BC/HE could be considered contenders taking #15 and #16. I don't think UND has missed the NCAAs for over a decade.

 

[MagnessMan]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

With UND, I don't know much about the team this season. But they're currently a #3 seed, and it's hard imagine them dropping to #4.

I love it when things hard to imagine happen and quickly too (especially to the former pioux).

 

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread - 2016-2017

Another impressive weekend for Justin Kloos who is tied for the NCAA lead in GWG with 6. He actually leads the nation in GWG/GP. Last Gopher reach that mark was Travis Boyd in his senior year. Rau had four GWG that year (2014-15).

Among top scorers in total points during Don Lucia's tenure, Justin just passed Jordan Leopold for 5th place, and I believe trails Kyle Rau by 18 points. As a captain, he certainly leads by example much like Kyle Rau did with an incredible work ethic and a high performance motor on the ice.