Re: Miac 2011-2012
Funny, yea I know what you mean..What is the simplest way to score so we don't confuse everyone?
it could be based on the % of points correctly predicated? The actual points of the team you predict takes more points (based on the 4 available points for 2 wins), is the numerator. The denominator is the # of points you predicted they would score. If your score is greater than 100%, you subtract 10% from 100% for every point over predicted. Your score = your percentage.
It comes out looking kind of complicated but I think it is simple using the following key (Team A is the team predicted to be superior in the series):
Ex:
1) Predict: Team A sweeps Team B
a) Actual: Team A sweeps Team B (A=4 points) - scoring: 4/4 = 100%
b) Actual Team A wins & ties (A=3 points) - scoring: 3/4 = 75%
c) Actual: Split (A=2 points) - Scoring: 2/4 = 50%
d) Actual: Team A loses & ties (A=1 point) - scoring: 1/4 = 25%
e) Actual: Team A gets swept (A=0 points) - scoring: 0/4 = 0%
2) Predict: Team A gets 3 points (win & tie)
a) Actual: Team A sweeps Team B (A=4 points) - scoring: 4/3= over 100% - subtract 10% = 90%
b) Actual Team A wins & ties (A=3 points) - scoring: 3/3 = 100%
c) Actual: Split (A=2 points) - Scoring: 2/3 = 67%%
d) Actual: Team A loses & ties (A=1 point) - scoring: 1/3 = 33%
e) Actual: Team A gets swept (A=0 points) - scoring: 0/3 = 0%
3) Predict: team A & team B split
a) Actual: Team A sweeps Team B (A=4 points) - scoring: 4/2 = over 100% - subtract 20% = 80%
b) Actual Team A wins & ties (A=3 points) - scoring: 3/2 = over 100% - subtract 10% = 90%
c) Actual: Split (A=2 points) - Scoring: 2/2 = 100%
d) Actual: Team A loses & ties (A=1 point) - scoring: 1/2 = 50%
e) Actual: Team A gets swept (A=0 points) - scoring: 0/3 = 0%
EDIT: After review - I am unsure how to determine who is Team A if you predict a split. This causes problems when it comes to underprediction penalization. Any ideas?