Re: Maine @ New Hampshire

Yeah, it is not the law of averages; think of it this way, if something happens over and over again (e.g. Maine losing at the Whit) there is likely an underlying reason, like Maine's game does not translate well to a large sheet of ice, whiting-out the Whit actually works, the UNH fans get up for the game and this inspires the players, whatever. But because of that advantage, which is demonstrated by the long-term win streak, it is even less likely that Maine will win than if we were playing a team like BU which seems to play well at the Whit. Having a long-term losing streak means you are more likely to lose, having a long-term winning streak means that you are more likely to win; everything isn't 50-50.
Consider the Red Sox playing Boston College in baseball (an extreme example to make the point); the fact that the Red Sox always win does not mean that it is likely that Boston College will win next time...
Since I have no training in statistics, I may be tilting at windmills by refuting at least part of what you said, but here goes:
If any or all of those underlying reasons in your first paragraph remain unchanged, then sure: as the Chinese Proverb says, "Unless we change our direction, we are likely to end up where we are headed." However, despite what Maine fans may declare to the contrary, I think it's likely that TW has prepared his team for tonight's game, knowing they need the points. (
Caveat: if Maine players have the collective mindset that they cannot win at the Whitt, then that's a different matter, but I seriously doubt that is true.) To me, this game is completely independent of any of the previous games vis a vis any streak (different teams, different players, different circumstances regarding playoff positioning -- especially considering the fact that this is the latest we have played a 2-game home series against Maine since when: forever?)Going by the "on any given night..." point of view, UNH is no more likely to win than if there were no streak, in my opinion. (Of course, I'd prefer that you were proved correct this weekend.)
As to the Red Sox vs BC, that's more apples and oranges, isn't it? It's equally unlikely that BC would beat the Red Sox under any scenario, unless the talent/experience differences were minimized.
Anyway, I'm looking forward to being at the Whitt tonight (my first time there since maybe early January,) and I do agree with your signature: GO CATS!