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Latest pairwise rankings

Some crazy possibilities after this weekend. My first big observations - Minnesota State could be out of the tournament should they lose to NMU and there's one other upset in either the NCHC, HEA, or if by some miracle Colgate wins. HEA still has a chance to get 3 teams in if Merrimack wins their first game and Providence wins out.

I think we are going to see upsets. I like NMU's chances the way they are playing right now, not that it's easy to go to MN St. and win. I also think there's a decent chance the winner of Merrimack/Mass-Lowell could win the HEA. Lastly, someone please beat North Dakota, because I hate the idea of the #4 getting a home game against the #1 even though that would bring extreme drama in that regional.

Looks like the top 3 spots in the Pairwise are now a lock.

What the heck happened to Western? Seems like after Denver came in and popped their balloon they've fallen flat.
 
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Committee will just move Minnesota to Allentown (most likely) to play Canisius/Holy Cross if that happens.

Protects the 1v16 integrity and Penn State being 8 or 9 makes the most sense. Not ideal since they’re also hosting but it’s by far the easiest solution if NDakota backs in.
 
bruinsfan11 said:
Committee will just move Minnesota to Allentown (most likely) to play Canisius/Holy Cross if that happens.

Protects the 1v16 integrity and Penn State being 8 or 9 makes the most sense. Not ideal since they’re also hosting but it’s by far the easiest solution if NDakota backs in.
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FWIW, North Dakota could still get a #3 seed.
 
bruinsfan11 said:
Committee will just move Minnesota to Allentown (most likely) to play Canisius/Holy Cross if that happens.

Protects the 1v16 integrity and Penn State being 8 or 9 makes the most sense. Not ideal since they’re also hosting but it’s by far the easiest solution if NDakota backs in.
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That's what I think "should" happen, but somewhere deep down I know the committee would love to see that ND v MN matchup
 
bruinsfan11 said:
Committee will just move Minnesota to Allentown (most likely) to play Canisius/Holy Cross if that happens.

Protects the 1v16 integrity and Penn State being 8 or 9 makes the most sense. Not ideal since they’re also hosting but it’s by far the easiest solution if NDakota backs in.
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The other reality is, MN still has to win against Michigan to lock in the #1 spot. A loss and a QU tourney win flips the pairwise and then the 1 v 16 would no longer be an issue for the committee with QU playing at a more easterly site.
 
StateofHockey78 said:
That's what I think "should" happen, but somewhere deep down I know the committee would love to see that ND v MN matchup
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They would but they don't need Minnesota for attendance at that point. Leaving #1 overall to play UND in Fargo would be criminal.
 
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StateofHockey78 said:
how's that? I've gotten them up to 16 with all the "likely" to happen scenarios. What did you find that puts them there?
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Lots of lower ranked teams winning their conference tournaments. UND would be 16 in the Pairwise, but would be ranked 12 of the qualified teams (and thus a 3 seed). Very unlikely (including for North Dakota to win the NCHC), but still possible.
 
It appears the 4 bands are almost completely set. Minnesota, Quinnipiac, Denver and Michigan will be 1 seeds. BU, Harvard, St. Cloud and Penn State will be the 2's. Ohio State, Michigan Tech and Western Michigan will be 3's. Cornell will be the final 3 with a caveat that they still could be out with 3 upset winners unless some kind of miracle unfolds where they lose and Merrimack wins Hockey East and all kinds of other games fall in place. The Atlantic Hockey winner will be a 4 and the overall 16 seed. The CCHA winner will be a 4 as well. That leaves 2 4th band spots. Merrimack's chances of a spot increase greatly with a win over Lowell which in turn hurt Alaska's chances. Of course 3 upsets are possible which could in turn remove everyone else from Cornell down.
 
Fighting Sioux 23 said:
Lots of lower ranked teams winning their conference tournaments. UND would be 16 in the Pairwise, but would be ranked 12 of the qualified teams (and thus a 3 seed). Very unlikely (including for North Dakota to win the NCHC), but still possible.
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That's true and the same can be said for Providence and Lowell. They would be a 3 band if they win and if all of Colgate, Colorado College and Northern Michigan win their tournaments.
 
Fighting Sioux 23 said:
Lots of lower ranked teams winning their conference tournaments. UND would be 16 in the Pairwise, but would be ranked 12 of the qualified teams (and thus a 3 seed). Very unlikely (including for North Dakota to win the NCHC), but still possible.
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well that explains why it didn't come up for me. I didn't consider the impossible when running the predictor lol.
 
BC/HE said:
It appears the 4 bands are almost completely set. Minnesota, Quinnipiac, Denver and Michigan will be 1 seeds. BU, Harvard, St. Cloud and Penn State will be the 2's. Ohio State, Michigan Tech and Western Michigan will be 3's. Cornell will be the final 3 with a caveat that they still could be out with 3 upset winners unless some kind of miracle unfolds where they lose and Merrimack wins Hockey East and all kinds of other games fall in place. The Atlantic Hockey winner will be a 4 and the overall 16 seed. The CCHA winner will be a 4 as well. That leaves 2 4th band spots. Merrimack's chances of a spot increase greatly with a win over Lowell which in turn hurt Alaska's chances. Of course 3 upsets are possible which could in turn remove everyone else from Cornell down.
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Michigan can still be flipped by BU and Harvard if they lose and games break right.
 
BC/HE said:
I was going by the CHN Pairwise Probabilty Matrix Pairwise Probability Matrix : College Hockey News but plugging in some games in the predictor you are right. The same can be said about the 3rd band getting Minnesota State in as one.
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yea I had done the same thing using CHN, until I realized they use a different formula in their matrix which incorporates KRACH into their equation. One thing, I don't think the predictor accounts for the values of any OT games where teams are hosting like MN v Mich for example. Not sure how much that could create variation in the results either.
 
StateofHockey78 said:
What the heck happened to Western? Seems like after Denver came in and popped their balloon they've fallen flat.
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The powerplay lost one of its big players in Jamie Rome. They haven't figured out how to replace him to get back to where they were earlier in the season. The other thing is give CC's Mbereko some credit. He is a good goalie, and the Tigers are a very defense first, second, third, fourth, and fifth kind of team. Let in a soft goal or two and CC has a chance.
 
CHN has now changed their Pairwise Probability Matrix, and it reflects the possibility of both Minn and Quinn getting the overall #1. I still find it quite informative.
 
Numbers said:
CHN has now changed their Pairwise Probability Matrix, and it reflects the possibility of both Minn and Quinn getting the overall #1. I still find it quite informative.
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That is pretty cool. I had been trying to figure out if there was any way for Michigan State to make it, but while that probability matrix shows an extremely slim chance of them finishing as high as 15, I'm guessing that is with some upsets that see more than just AHA using an autobid spot. I'm left wondering if a 3rd place game in any of the conferences could change the pairwise finishes enough to put a team in that is left sitting out today.
 
I just wanted to point out that 4 coaches who lost in OT challenged the GWG on plays where there was very clearly nothing to look at. 3 offsides and one goalie interference challenge. Come on guys. Be better.
 
J.D. said:
I just wanted to point out that 4 coaches who lost in OT challenged the GWG on plays where there was very clearly nothing to look at. 3 offsides and one goalie interference challenge. Come on guys. Be better.
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I mean, first and foremost you're not wrong. But to be fair though, at that point there's really nothing to lose and everything to gain.
 
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