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Latest pairwise rankings

I mean, first and foremost you're not wrong. But to be fair though, at that point there's really nothing to lose and everything to gain.

I get that but when there's so clearly nothing wrong with any of the plays it's just a bad look IMO. Takes away from the moment of an OT winner too. I'm also tired of coaches challenging any hit that has the chance of having the slightest head contact because they don't care if they lose their timeout. I'd like to see the challenge system cleaned up a little. But now back to PWR discussion...
 
Both CC and Colgate winning tonight is certainly possible based on how they each played on Friday. Colgate matches up well against Harvard given the regular season split that could easily have been a sweep for the Raiders.
 
I get that but when there's so clearly nothing wrong with any of the plays it's just a bad look IMO. Takes away from the moment of an OT winner too. I'm also tired of coaches challenging any hit that has the chance of having the slightest head contact because they don't care if they lose their timeout. I'd like to see the challenge system cleaned up a little. But now back to PWR discussion...

Looking at that Merrimack winning goal the announcers had no idea what the challenge was about. It clearly was not goaltender interference as they were claiming as the challenge. Also it clearly was not offside. What it was: a high stick challenge. The Merrimack player knocked the puck out of the air and proceeded to make the pass for the goal. It was not a high stick but was close enough to take another look.
 
6 teams facing win or go home games tonight (Holy Cross, Canisius, Northern Michigan, Minnesota State, Colgate, and Colorado College), including both teams in the Atlantic Hockey and CCHA Championships. Remarkably, despite that, Alaska still has a better than 50/50 shot at making the tournament as an at-large. Should be a fun night of college hockey!

As for the NCAA Tournament, it would appear that Fargo is likely set:
1. Minnesota vs. 4. Holy Cross/Canisius Winner
2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. Ohio State

The rest of the bracket could get a bit messy depending on how the seeding all shakes out. Obviously, Penn State is in Allentown. Quinnipiac likely gets placed in Bridgeport. Denver won't make a difference (attendance wise - and a flight regardless), so they can go anywhere. If Michigan gets the last #1, does it make more sense to put them in Manchester? I'd prefer that to keep fewer potential intra-conference regional final possibilities (and no need to stack all 4 B1G teams into two regionals). I would think they would like to place BU and/or Harvard in Manchester (and if not possible, then one or the other to Bridgeport). Either Michigan Tech or Western Michigan are decent options to slot against Penn State in Allentown if either wind up as the #10 overall seed.

Of course, they could also just go pure serpentine...
 
In case you're wondering, Colorado College could become the 7th team to be seeded #7 or lower in their conference tournament and win the title. The previous six:

ECAC 1980 #8 Cornell
ECAC 1981 #7 Providence
ECAC 1998 #7 Princeton
CCHA 2010 #7 Michigan
AHA 2013 #7 Canisius
ECAC 2018 #7 Princeton
 
For qualification purposes, not seeding:
Everyone down to and including Michigan Tech and Western Michigan is in.

Canisius v Holy Cross: Winner in, loser goes home
Minnesota State v Northern Michigan: Winner in, loser goes home
Colgate must win to qualify
Colorado College must win to qualify

If either Colgate or CC win, Alaska is out
If both win, then either Merrimack or Cornell is out, and which one is out depends on the Merrimack/BU game. In this case, Merrimack would need to win to be in.
 
6 teams facing win or go home games tonight (Holy Cross, Canisius, Northern Michigan, Minnesota State, Colgate, and Colorado College), including both teams in the Atlantic Hockey and CCHA Championships. Remarkably, despite that, Alaska still has a better than 50/50 shot at making the tournament as an at-large. Should be a fun night of college hockey!

As for the NCAA Tournament, it would appear that Fargo is likely set:
1. Minnesota vs. 4. Holy Cross/Canisius Winner
2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. Ohio State

The rest of the bracket could get a bit messy depending on how the seeding all shakes out. Obviously, Penn State is in Allentown. Quinnipiac likely gets placed in Bridgeport. Denver won't make a difference (attendance wise - and a flight regardless), so they can go anywhere. If Michigan gets the last #1, does it make more sense to put them in Manchester? I'd prefer that to keep fewer potential intra-conference regional final possibilities (and no need to stack all 4 B1G teams into two regionals). I would think they would like to place BU and/or Harvard in Manchester (and if not possible, then one or the other to Bridgeport). Either Michigan Tech or Western Michigan are decent options to slot against Penn State in Allentown if either wind up as the #10 overall seed.

Of course, they could also just go pure serpentine...

With Penn State coming in at #8 in the PWR, I don't think the committee has any choice but to send Denver (I mean the overall #3 seed) there. Minnesota obviously goes to Fargo. Quinnipiac goes the Bridgeport. There is a new rule which prohibits the committee from moving any team more than two spots within its seeding band. That means that they can't take PSU, at #8, and treat them like the #5. The most they can do is treat them like a #6. So, the 3rd seed has to go to Allentown.

That means that the #4 and #5 overall go to Manchester. That means either Mich or Den, and either BU or Harvard.

So, for the top half of the bracket:
Fargo: Minnesota, St Cloud St
Bridgeport: Quinnipiac, #6 overall (Harvard or BU)
Allentown: #3 overall (DU, Michigan), Penn State
Manchester: #4, 5 overall: (Michigan, DU), (Harvard, BU)

As for the rest, as FS23 said, Ohio State goes to Fargo, and after that we don't know anything, chiefly because, for example, Minnesota State is either a #3 seed, or out of the tournament. Merrimack is either a 3, or a 4, or out. Perhaps as good as we can say is that Cornell and Merrimack, if they qualify, will stay in either Bridgeport or Manchester (although Ithaca, NY is within bussing distance from Allentown, too). And, likewise Colgate, should they defeat Harvard. The winner of Holy Cross/Canisius gets a flight to Fargo.
 
In case you're wondering, Colorado College could become the 7th team to be seeded #7 or lower in their conference tournament and win the title. The previous six:

ECAC 1980 #8 Cornell
ECAC 1981 #7 Providence
ECAC 1998 #7 Princeton
CCHA 2010 #7 Michigan
AHA 2013 #7 Canisius
ECAC 2018 #7 Princeton

Holy Cross is also a 7 seed so with their game being first tonight it would mean CC could become the 8th team. Minnesota fans will love to be reminded of playing Holy Cross in North Dakota.
 
Holy Cross is also a 7 seed so with their game being first tonight it would mean CC could become the 8th team. Minnesota fans will love to be reminded of playing Holy Cross in North Dakota.

Duly noted and well pointed out. This could be the first year with two #7 winners. There have been three other years which were poised but didn't come through.

2013 AHA #7 Canisius WON, ECAC #7 Brown lost, WCHA #8 Colorado College lost

2014 NCHC #8 Miami lost, AHA #7 Canisius lost
2018 ECAC #7 Princeton WON, AHA #7 Robert Morris lost
 
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With Penn State coming in at #8 in the PWR, I don't think the committee has any choice but to send Denver (I mean the overall #3 seed) there. Minnesota obviously goes to Fargo. Quinnipiac goes the Bridgeport. There is a new rule which prohibits the committee from moving any team more than two spots within its seeding band. That means that they can't take PSU, at #8, and treat them like the #5. The most they can do is treat them like a #6. So, the 3rd seed has to go to Allentown.

Interesting. I wasn't aware of that change. There is an outside chance St. Cloud gets to #5. Would that mean they couldn't go to Fargo?
 
Actually, I have been thinking about the committee's process a bit, and the more I think of it, the more it seems to make sense to me.

What the committee uses the PWR for is to give an objective measuring stick when there is otherwise only a fine, indistinguishable line between teams. So, for example, a few years ago, UMD qualified by .0001 or even less, or Minnesota. Really, there is no difference that any person would recognize between the teams. But, the committee uses the PWR as a measuring stick.

However, the committee is then faced with the realities of hockey. It is a tight margin game. One of the margins which is granted to home teams is "last player change". In NCAA tournament play, the higher seeded team is designated the home team, and has the right of last change.

In some years, the range of, say 7-11 in the RPI (and in the PWR) is so tight that it amounts to less than 1/2 game of results. There is no way to distingish that, and some people might say "Hey, there isn't any difference. So, if the tournament can be made better in attendance or in novelty of matchups, just shuffle the teams to make it so." However, moving someone from 10 to 8, or from 8 to 9, changes their band, and thus changes their home/road status.

And, the committee doesn't want to do that. So, they adhere to the PWR perhaps more tightly than is actually necessary.
 
I think that is correct.

Yikes. So, here is one scenario: SCSU, Minnesota, Minnesota State, Merrimack, Colgate, and Canisius win. That gives the following Pairwise Rankings:

1. Minnesota
2. Quinnipiac
3. Denver
4. Michigan
5. St. Cloud State
6. Boston University
7. Harvard
8. Penn State
9. Ohio State
10. Merrimack
11. Michigan Tech
12. Minnesota State
13. Western Michigan
14. Cornell
15. Colgate
16. Canisius

Minnesota to Fargo.
Quinnipiac to Bridgeport
Denver to Allentown
Michigan to Manchester

Pure serpentine leads to:

Fargo
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Canisius
8. Penn State vs. 9. Ohio State

Bridgeport
2. Quinnipiac vs. 15. Colgate
7. Harvard vs. 10. Merrimack

Allentown
3. Denver vs. 14. Cornell
6. Boston University vs. 11. Michigan Tech

Manchester
4. Michigan vs. 13. Western Michigan
5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Minnesota State

This doesn't work because Penn State has to be in Allentown. The question then becomes, do we just move that whole bracket to Allentown? If the goal is to protect the #1, then no. If we can only have Penn State lined up against the #1, #2, or #3 overall seeds, then the only real option is to swap the BU-Tech and PSU-OSU matchups. That gives us:

Fargo
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Canisius
6. Boston University vs. 11. Michigan Tech

Bridgeport
2. Quinnipiac vs. 15. Colgate
7. Harvard vs. 10. Merrimack

Allentown
3. Denver vs. 14. Cornell
8. Penn State vs. 9. Ohio State

Manchester
4. Michigan vs. 13. Western Michigan
5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Minnesota State

Next, we have some intra-conference matchups to fix. We can't have QU vs. Colgate. We can't have QU vs Cornell or Denver vs. Western Michigan either. Western Michigan has to play QU. The next question is do we also move Cornell to make it more equal? Perhaps...but let's wait for now. The other intra-conference matchup is Penn State vs. Ohio State. The easy flip is Ohio State and Merrimack. So, that gives us...

Fargo
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Canisius
6. Boston University vs. 11. Michigan Tech

Bridgeport
2. Quinnipiac vs. 13. Western Michigan
7. Harvard vs. 9. Ohio State

Allentown
3. Denver vs. 14. Cornell
8. Penn State vs. 10. Merrimack

Manchester
4. Michigan vs. 15. Colgate
5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Minnesota State

Okay. We've protected the #1, placed all the hosts in their regionals, and have avoided intra-conference matchups. Now, what can be done to improve attendance. Does Cornell put more butts in the seats in Manchester than Colgate? I would presume so, but I would also defer to our east coast fans. It also "rewards" Denver over Michigan for being a higher overall 1 seed. I'd love to put St. Cloud in Fargo, but the new rule doesn't allow it. But, what about Minnesota State? Fargo doesn't need any help attendance wise, so I'm inclined to leave it be...plus, the committee hasn't really cared much about saving flights recently. So, my bracket in this scenario would be:

Fargo
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Canisius
6. Boston University vs. 11. Michigan Tech

Bridgeport
2. Quinnipiac vs. 13. Western Michigan
7. Harvard vs. 9. Ohio State

Allentown
3. Denver vs. 15. Colgate
8. Penn State vs. 10. Merrimack

Manchester
4. Michigan vs. 14. Cornell
5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Minnesota State

So, you're treating BU as the #8 (from the #6), Tech as the #9 (from the #11), Western Michigan as the #15 (from the #13), Ohio State as the #10 (from the #9), Colgate as the #14 (from the #15), Penn State as the #6 (from the #8), Merrimack as the #11 (from the #10), and Cornell as the #13 (from the #14). That's a lot of changes.

Whew...hopefully this scenario doesn't play itself out.
 
Yikes. So, here is one scenario: SCSU, Minnesota, Minnesota State, Merrimack, Colgate, and Canisius win. That gives the following Pairwise Rankings:

1. Minnesota
2. Quinnipiac
3. Denver
4. Michigan
5. St. Cloud State
6. Boston University
7. Harvard
8. Penn State
9. Ohio State
10. Merrimack
11. Michigan Tech
12. Minnesota State
13. Western Michigan
14. Cornell
15. Colgate
16. Canisius

Minnesota to Fargo.
Quinnipiac to Bridgeport
Denver to Allentown
Michigan to Manchester

Pure serpentine leads to:

Fargo
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Canisius
8. Penn State vs. 9. Ohio State

Bridgeport
2. Quinnipiac vs. 15. Colgate
7. Harvard vs. 10. Merrimack

Allentown
3. Denver vs. 14. Cornell
6. Boston University vs. 11. Michigan Tech

Manchester
4. Michigan vs. 13. Western Michigan
5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Minnesota State

This doesn't work because Penn State has to be in Allentown. The question then becomes, do we just move that whole bracket to Allentown? If the goal is to protect the #1, then no. If we can only have Penn State lined up against the #1, #2, or #3 overall seeds, then the only real option is to swap the BU-Tech and PSU-OSU matchups. That gives us:

Fargo
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Canisius
6. Boston University vs. 11. Michigan Tech

Bridgeport
2. Quinnipiac vs. 15. Colgate
7. Harvard vs. 10. Merrimack

Allentown
3. Denver vs. 14. Cornell
8. Penn State vs. 9. Ohio State

Manchester
4. Michigan vs. 13. Western Michigan
5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Minnesota State

Next, we have some intra-conference matchups to fix. We can't have QU vs. Colgate. We can't have QU vs Cornell or Denver vs. Western Michigan either. Western Michigan has to play QU. The next question is do we also move Cornell to make it more equal? Perhaps...but let's wait for now. The other intra-conference matchup is Penn State vs. Ohio State. The easy flip is Ohio State and Merrimack. So, that gives us...

Fargo
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Canisius
6. Boston University vs. 11. Michigan Tech

Bridgeport
2. Quinnipiac vs. 13. Western Michigan
7. Harvard vs. 9. Ohio State

Allentown
3. Denver vs. 14. Cornell
8. Penn State vs. 10. Merrimack

Manchester
4. Michigan vs. 15. Colgate
5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Minnesota State

Okay. We've protected the #1, placed all the hosts in their regionals, and have avoided intra-conference matchups. Now, what can be done to improve attendance. Does Cornell put more butts in the seats in Manchester than Colgate? I would presume so, but I would also defer to our east coast fans. It also "rewards" Denver over Michigan for being a higher overall 1 seed. I'd love to put St. Cloud in Fargo, but the new rule doesn't allow it. But, what about Minnesota State? Fargo doesn't need any help attendance wise, so I'm inclined to leave it be...plus, the committee hasn't really cared much about saving flights recently. So, my bracket in this scenario would be:

Fargo
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Canisius
6. Boston University vs. 11. Michigan Tech

Bridgeport
2. Quinnipiac vs. 13. Western Michigan
7. Harvard vs. 9. Ohio State

Allentown
3. Denver vs. 15. Colgate
8. Penn State vs. 10. Merrimack

Manchester
4. Michigan vs. 14. Cornell
5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Minnesota State

So, you're treating BU as the #8 (from the #6), Tech as the #9 (from the #11), Western Michigan as the #15 (from the #13), Ohio State as the #10 (from the #9), Colgate as the #14 (from the #15), Penn State as the #6 (from the #8), Merrimack as the #11 (from the #10), and Cornell as the #13 (from the #14). That's a lot of changes.

Whew...hopefully this scenario doesn't play itself out.


Personally, I hope it does. I like seeing people squirm in their little world.

But, in truth, my ideal bracket is that Northern Michigan wins, (I hate Mankato), and Colgate and CC both lose, so that Alaska gets in. Do the bracket however you want. I don't care. Alaska in and Mankato out. I would like that.
 
Holy Cross is also a 7 seed so with their game being first tonight it would mean CC could become the 8th team. Minnesota fans will love to be reminded of playing Holy Cross in North Dakota.

This Minnesota fan would love nothing more than to see the Gophers face Holy Cross in North Dakota. What better way to start a National Championship run than by exorcizing an old demon?
 
Personally, I hope it does. I like seeing people squirm in their little world.

But, in truth, my ideal bracket is that Northern Michigan wins, (I hate Mankato), and Colgate and CC both lose, so that Alaska gets in. Do the bracket however you want. I don't care. Alaska in and Mankato out. I would like that.

I'd like to see CC make it...but in general chaos is fun to see play out, particularly with newish blood in the tournament. Perhaps a Michigan Tech, Western Michigan, Northern Michigan, and Michigan Frozen Four to go with it, with Western taking their first crown? That would be entertaining to see.
 
I'd like to see CC make it...but in general chaos is fun to see play out, particularly with newish blood in the tournament. Perhaps a Michigan Tech, Western Michigan, Northern Michigan, and Michigan Frozen Four to go with it, with Western taking their first crown? That would be entertaining to see.

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does this Gopher analyst not know how offside works? the play they keep talking about is not offside.
 
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