"Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

[jyoung]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Per their choices on the AH Pick 'em thread:
5hole = Army
21st Century Schizoid Man = Colgate
This assumes they would use the same picks here.

Right now only 4 people out of 14 players have picked the Colgate/Army game. If no more show up I'll let their picks stand for their score and bragging rights but won't count the game in the 75% required for the champion. Right now one person is THAT close to the 75%...

Mathematically it wouldn't be that big an issue after this week.

Currently I have pick rates after week 8 of
100%; 86%; 100%; 86%; 73%; 100%; 22%; 86%; 100%; 75%; 100%; 100%; 48%; and 89%

If everything stands as is, the only two at serious issue are the 73% and the 75%. Running the five scenarios (0 of 10, 0 of 11, 10 of 10, 10 of 11, or 11 of 11 possible) the new options for each run to:

73% => 63% (0 of 11 picks), 64% (0 of 10 picks), 75% (10 of 11 picks), 76% (10 of 10 picks), or 76% (11 of 11 picks)

75% => 65% (0 picks on 11), 66% (0 of 10 picks), 77% (10 of 11 picks), 78% (10 of 10 picks), or 79% (11 of 11 picks)

Thus it doesn't actually impact them from week 8 to week 9 in terms of whether they'll be included or not in the 75% margin*, provided they at least pick the 10, the 11th hurts or helps their percentage a little, but not so much that it should be an issue over the remaining weeks if they continue to pick regularly since there's a lot of hockey yet to be played. Even our 48% isn't out of the running from what I can figure, though I wouldn't recommend missing any more weeks.

But it's your game, so you get to make the decision. It's just easier to compute assuming all games count and I prefer that.

Now... why did they put graduation in the middle of the hockey games?


*I'm assuming basic rounding. I.e. 74.50% will be counted as 75%, just as 75.49% would be.

 

[Upper Deck]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Fr-Sa ==> UAH @ Cornell (2) Cornell sweep
Fr-Sa ==> UNO @ BSU (2) split
Fr-Sa ==> UConn @ NU (2) NU sweep
Fr-Sa ==> Bentley @ RMU (2) RMU sweep
Fr-Sa ==> HC @ AFA (2) AF sweep

 

[Douglas]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Mathematically it wouldn't be that big an issue after this week.

Currently I have pick rates after week 8 of
100%; 86%; 100%; 86%; 73%; 100%; 22%; 86%; 100%; 75%; 100%; 100%; 48%; and 89%

If everything stands as is, the only two at serious issue are the 73% and the 75%. Running the five scenarios (0 of 10, 0 of 11, 10 of 10, 10 of 11, or 11 of 11 possible) the new options for each run to:

73% => 63% (0 of 11 picks), 64% (0 of 10 picks), 75% (10 of 11 picks), 76% (10 of 10 picks), or 76% (11 of 11 picks)

75% => 65% (0 picks on 11), 66% (0 of 10 picks), 77% (10 of 11 picks), 78% (10 of 10 picks), or 79% (11 of 11 picks)

Thus it doesn't actually impact them from week 8 to week 9 in terms of whether they'll be included or not in the 75% margin*, provided they at least pick the 10, the 11th hurts or helps their percentage a little, but not so much that it should be an issue over the remaining weeks if they continue to pick regularly since there's a lot of hockey yet to be played. Even our 48% isn't out of the running from what I can figure, though I wouldn't recommend missing any more weeks.

But it's your game, so you get to make the decision. It's just easier to compute assuming all games count and I prefer that.

Now... why did they put graduation in the middle of the hockey games?


*I'm assuming basic rounding. I.e. 74.50% will be counted as 75%, just as 75.49% would be.

Wow, you've got alot of time on your hands...

Notice: Upper Deck just made his picks and didn't include the Army game... oh well.

...and if I'd just kept my mouth shut when I noticed my oversight this would all be moot.

 

[Douglas]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Time to make my picks before going to my car club's Christmas Dinner.

Fr-Sa ==> UAH @ Cornell (2) Cornell sweep
Fr-Sa ==> UNO @ BSU (2) UNO sweep
Fr-Sa ==> UConn @ NU (2) NU sweep
Fr-Sa ==> Bentley @ RMU (2) RMU sweep
Fr-Sa ==> HC @ AFA (2) Split

I know that the Colgate/Army game will make little difference to all the scores but my sense of "fairness" tells me that everyone should have seen it posted in the "official" Choices section so they all would have had the equal chance at picking it. Since it was my error I'm not going to count that game in any way so that it is neither an advantage or disadvantage to anyone that didn't pick the game... no matter how small that number might have been.

 

[jyoung]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Wow, you've got alot of time on your hands...

Notice: Upper Deck just made his picks and didn't include the Army game... oh well.

...and if I'd just kept my mouth shut when I noticed my oversight this would all be moot.

As soon as I can find an employer, I won't have that problem anymore. think I'll be glad not to have it for a while too. Besides, I told you I set up a spreadsheet... accountant + spreadsheet = hours of enjoyment.

I noticed. Not that it's a big issue for his percentage.

No, because then one of us would have caught the error and you'd have a different set of things to deal with. At least this way you get the mea culpa out of the way and can decide what to do about it.

 

[5hole]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Douglas, man ... you are thorough! Okay, I'll stick with Army ... might as well be wrong twice.

 

[Douglas]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Another tough week in the Pick 'em... This week only one person chose the Beaver Sweep over UNO (congrats to the Beavs on that feat!) and only one person correctly picked two of the three ties (Cornell/UAH & Bentley/RMU). And finally, only two people correctly picked the UConn/NU split. Congrats to all who picked against the grain and made it pay off for themselves! [You know who you are.]

Here are the standings after 9 weeks of play:

STANDINGS from Week 9's Independent Pick'em are as follows: CORRECTED... and CORRECTED AGAIN!

Standings:
true2BSU -------------------- 27-18 .600%
21st Century Schizoid Man --- 49-34 .590%
beaverhockeyfan -------------49-34 .590%
Douglas --------------------- 49-34 .590%
BigBlue2Ba -------------------43-30 .589%
Laker Dude ------------------ 42-31 .575%
BSUBeaver94 ---------------- 41-32 .562%
5hole ------------------------35-28 .556%
RMUColonials -----------------30-25 .545%
gfmorris --------------------- 45-38 .542%
jyoung ---------------------- 45-38 .542%
Upper Deck ------------------ 39-36 .520%
wsp67326 --------------------42-41 .506%


Picked less than 50% to date:
vizoroo ----------------------- 9-7 .563%


Week 9 "Top Picker(s)" were true2BSU, & wsp69326 at 6-4.


CHOICES for Week 10 are:

Week 10 (Dec 10 - 11, 2010)
Fr-Sa ==> RMU @ UAH (2)
Fr-Sa ==> BSU @ UW (2)
Fr =====> Bentley @ Army (1)
Sa =====> Army @ Union (1)
Sa =====> NU @ Colgate (1)
Total Games = 7


Be sure to let me know if I miss or incorrectly count your games and if I miss
any scheduled games. Have fun...

PS- Rules are in Post 1; Number in () is the number of games to be played
between those teams for this week's Pick'em.

PPS- Since everyone didn't pick my overlooked Army/Colgate game I didn't count it in any way.

 

[gfmorris]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Week 10 (Dec 10 - 11, 2010)
Fr-Sa ==> RMU @ UAH (2): UAH SWEEP. Also, @DerekSchooley and I will rib each other on Twitter at least once this week. Sadly, I will likely miss both games.
Fr-Sa ==> BSU @ UW (2): SPLIT
Fr =====> Bentley @ Army (1): ARMY
Sa =====> Army @ Union (1): ARMY
Sa =====> NU @ Colgate (1): NIAGARA

GFM

 

[jyoung]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Here are the standings after 9 weeks of play:

STANDINGS from Week 9's Independent Pick'em are as follows:

Standings:
21st Century Schizoid Man --- 50-33 .602%
beaverhockeyfan -------------50-33 .602%
true2BSU -------------------- 27-18 .600%
Douglas --------------------- 49-34 .590%
BigBlue2Ba -------------------43-30 .589%
Laker Dude ------------------ 42-31 .575%
BSUBeaver94 ---------------- 41-32 .562%
5hole ------------------------36-28 .556%
RMUColonials -----------------30-25 .545%
gfmorris --------------------- 45-38 .542%
jyoung ---------------------- 45-38 .542%
Upper Deck ------------------ 39-36 .520%
wsp67326 --------------------43-40 .518%


Picked less than 50% to date:
vizoroo ----------------------- 9-7 .563%


Week 9 "Top Picker(s)" were beaverhockeyfan, true2BSU, & wsp69326 at 6-4.

Be sure to let me know if I miss or incorrectly count your games and if I miss
any scheduled games. Have fun...

PS- Rules are in Post 1; Number in () is the number of games to be played
between those teams for this week's Pick'em.

PPS- Since everyone didn't pick my overlooked Army/Colgate game I didn't count it in any way.

This is the first time our numbers haven't agreed, and I've adjusted for not including Colgate/Army as requested.

I've got beaverhockeyfan at .500 for the week not .600, bringing his percentage to .590 overall.

I have both beaverhockeyfan and 21st Century Schizoid Man at 49-34 records. I've gone back and double checked, I could be wrong, but that's what the numbers I have are.

I have wsp7326 at a 42-41 record, or .506 overall.

The other is 5hole with 84 games, rather than 83. His record is 35-28, with a .556 overall. Basically an extra win slipped in.

 

[jyoung]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Week 10 (Dec 10 - 11, 2010)
Also, @DerekSchooley and I will rib each other on Twitter at least once this week. Sadly, I will likely miss both games.

GFM

That bites, I much prefer it when you're around.

 

[true2BSU]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Week 10 (Dec 10 - 11, 2010)
Fr-Sa ==> RMU @ UAH (2) Split
Fr-Sa ==> BSU @ UW (2) Split
Fr =====> Bentley @ Army (1) Army
Sa =====> Army @ Union (1) Union
Sa =====> NU @ Colgate (1) Niagara
Total Games = 7

 

[Laker Dude]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Fr-Sa ==> RMU @ UAH (2) - RMU sweep
Fr-Sa ==> BSU @ UW (2) - UW sweep
Fr =====> Bentley @ Army (1) - Army
Sa =====> Army @ Union (1) - Union
Sa =====> NU @ Colgate (1) - NU

 

[Douglas]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

This is the first time our numbers haven't agreed, and I've adjusted for not including Colgate/Army as requested.

I've got beaverhockeyfan at .500 for the week not .600, bringing his percentage to .590 overall.

I have both beaverhockeyfan and 21st Century Schizoid Man at 49-34 records. I've gone back and double checked, I could be wrong, but that's what the numbers I have are.

I have wsp7326 at a 42-41 record, or .506 overall.

The other is 5hole with 84 games, rather than 83. His record is 35-28, with a .556 overall. Basically an extra win slipped in.

I'll check it out... it was very late when I did the last one...

 

[wsp67326]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Fr-Sa ==> RMU @ UAH (2) UAH; tie
Fr-Sa ==> BSU @ UW (2) UW sweep
Fr =====> Bentley @ Army (1) Bentley
Sa =====> Army @ Union (1) Union
Sa =====> NU @ Colgate (1) Colgate

 

[Douglas]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

This is the first time our numbers haven't agreed, and I've adjusted for not including Colgate/Army as requested.

Based on this and my recount...

I've got beaverhockeyfan at .500 for the week not .600, bringing his percentage to .590 overall.

You are correct - I copied his picks down incorrectly - Corrected

I have both beaverhockeyfan and 21st Century Schizoid Man at 49-34 records. I've gone back and double checked, I could be wrong, but that's what the numbers I have are.

beaverhockeyfan has been corrected but I can't find a problem with 21st Century Schizoid Man. Since you agreed with me last week when he was 45-28, adding his 5-5 week I get 50-33... as does my spreadsheet. Recheck your sheet?

I have wsp7326 at a 42-41 record, or .506 overall.

Same here - he was 37-36 last week, add 6-4 to it and I get 43-40. Recheck your sheet?

The other is 5hole with 84 games, rather than 83. His record is 35-28, with a .556 overall. Basically an extra win slipped in.

You are correct - It turned out to be a typo when I transcribed my sorted tally sheet. It has been Corrected.

I updated the "Standings" post to reflect these corrections... sorry for the errors.

 

[5hole]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Well just d***. That change will undoubtedly end up costing me the top spot when I stage a huge comeback, THANKS A BUNCH JP1 ... !!!

 

[Douglas]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Well just d***. That change will undoubtedly end up costing me the top spot when I stage a huge comeback, THANKS A BUNCH JP1 ... !!!

Actually, you need to thank jyoung!!!

 

[5hole]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Actually, you need to thank jyoung!!!

Ahh! I guess I read that wrong,I thought he meant that you slipped in an extra win. Actually, being as far down the list as I am, I was not really paying close attention. In any event, With a "sorry" and "thanks" to JYoung, I'll re-direct my comment to you, Douglas. (Remember - it is always more fun to bi-itch!)

 

[beaverhockeyfan]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Well, I think I am going to have to go out and hire one of the recount lawyers that have screwed up the Minnesota Election*. I mean, there are really good at arguing what the voter intent is, that arguement should play here.

*Anyone following the Minnesota Recount, the Republican party has been making a lot of bull***t challenges, trying to tie up the Governor's Seat until well after January 3. That way the Republican Legislature can ram through its agenda with outgoing gov Pawlenty in the seat before the courts rule that the Dems get the Governor's Seat.

 

[gfmorris]

Re: "Independent" Pick'em - Gotta have something to do...

Well, I think I am going to have to go out and hire one of the recount lawyers that have screwed up the Minnesota Election*. I mean, there are really good at arguing what the voter intent is, that arguement should play here.

*Anyone following the Minnesota Recount, the Republican party has been making a lot of bull***t challenges, trying to tie up the Governor's Seat until well after January 3. That way the Republican Legislature can ram through its agenda with outgoing gov Pawlenty in the seat before the courts rule that the Dems get the Governor's Seat.

Y'all had that in 2008 with your Senator, too.

GFM