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Incredibly Dull Boring 2022 Pairwise and Tournament Possibilites Thread

Sean Pickett said:
I've slowly been working on compiling detailed scoring data and I have the complete game results from 2008-09 through yesterday's games. For 2021-22 overall scoring was 5.64 GPG, just a tick above the 14 season average of 5.63 GPG and 6th highest over the past 14 seasons. For the NCAA Tournament I currently only compile all games, but I have pulled out the Frozen Four games from the totals and I noticed a few errors in Fighting Sioux 23's numbers for 2009, 2010, and 2021. For this season, as FS23 stated, scoring has dropped to 5.25 GPG, 0.39 GPG less than the season average. Looking at the scoring data over the past 14 seasons shows that 7 times the scoring in the NCAA regionals decreased compared to the season overall and 6 times it increased, with the average change being -0.07 GPG. For the NCAA including the Frozen Four the GPG difference is +0.18 GPG, so it will be interesting to see if scoring increases in the FF games this year.

What I find more interesting is that through the regionals this year's NCAA Tournament has the had the closest games the past 14 years, with a total differential of just 19 goals, an average differential of 1.58 per game. That is below the overall average this season of 2.32 GDpG, the 14 year NCAA Tournament average of 2.34 GDpG and the 14 year NCAA Regional average of 2.32 GDpG. That means that so far this year has been the most competitive NCAA Tournament the past 14 years, with only 2018 (1.80 GDpG) also having a sub-2.00 GDpG. The regionals were the most competitive over that time and the only one with a sub-2.oo GDpG.

This comes after last year had the second largest total goal differential in regionals with 33 and the largest per game differential at 3.30. Last year's tournament also had the third largest total goal differential with 40 and the largest per game differential at 3.08. So after last year's lopsided games this year's close games are even more noticeable.
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My numbers are much more rudimentary that Sean's detailed dive, but he's absolutely correct about this being the "closest" NCAA tournament. I went all the way back to the start of the 16 team field in 2003, and only 2018 also had an average margin of victory under 2 in the previous 18 tournaments.

The average number of goals scored in a tournament was 84.2 entering the 2022 edition. So far we have a total of 63 scored over 12 games, so it's guaranteed this will not be the lowest total in the 16 team field era (since there were only 65 scored in 2018 and we're guaranteed at minimum 3 more if all the remaining games end 1-0). But we'd have to see an average of more than 6 goals a game in all the remaining games to reach that 18 year mean.
 
hobeydog said:
Attended the final in Albany and Worcester. On a scale of 1 to 10, Albany was a 9 and Worcester a 6...
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I was in Worcester for the whole weekend and had a relatively good time despite Northeastern's breaking my heart. But WRT attendance, I saw several negative factors combining to hurt ticket sales:
  • The Friday noon start time for the first game: Even though NU was only about 50 miles away, it turned out to be a heavy mid-term exam week, which depressed--no destroyed--student attendance. When your choice is to pass your coursework or go to a hockey game, there isn't much of a decision to make. And on the alumni/general fan end of things, it's not always easy to blow off a whole day of work.
  • UMass and NU both bowing out in OT on Friday. If even one of them had advanced, Sunday attendance would have been a much different story.
  • The Minnesota fanbase didn't seem to travel as well as it usually does. They had numbers but not nearly as many as I've seen in the past.
Not a big fan of the 3-day format or the three hours between games on the first day. Hope the NCAA goes back to the Sat-Sun back-to-back format. Still, it was enjoyable to be able to meet and chat with fans from all over. Saw hockey jerseys and related swag from almost everywhere--including Arizona State and even one from Hahvahd.
 
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For TV purposes the new format is dynamite. No real crossover between games. So it comes down to valuing the TV experience or trying to maximize attendance. Is there a way to do both?
 
Fighting Sioux 23 said:
I'd like to have a team to root for against Denver, so let's go Bobcats!

Also, after the crap Michigan pulled this season, I think everyone (outside of Ann Arbor anyway) is rooting against the Wolverines this season. I'm just unable to root for Denver.

My rooting interest order at this stage:
1. Minnesota State
2. Quinnipiac
3. Minnesota
4. Michigan
5. Denver
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Well I can't possibly root for the Gophers, but otherwise i'll go all in for the CCHA.
 
Fighting Sioux 23 said:
I love how you keep ignoring Sioux Falls. It's pretty comical. 4.5 hours away. North Dakota packed it, and the team didn't even make the tournament. Toledo couldn't even crack 3k people the last time a regional was there (2013 - with Notre Dame and Miami in that regional).

As for Detroit, please explain how Little Caesars wouldn't work.
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LCA is booked way out and has both the Pistons and the wings. However, USA hockey arena might work if you are ok with 3500 seats, and if you could get the U 18 and U 17 teams out of there for a weekend.. it's close to AA. It even has two ice sheets.
 
manurespreader said:
LCA is booked way out and has both the Pistons and the wings. However, USA hockey arena might work if you are ok with 3500 seats, and if you could get the U 18 and U 17 teams out of there for a weekend.. it's close to AA. It even has two ice sheets.
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The NCAA accepted the Lindenwood bid to host at the Centene Community Ice Center, which only seats 2,500 in its main rink. The NCAA Bid Document for the 2022-26 Regionals still has the minimum 5,000 seat requirement, so it appears the NCAA waved it. If so, then the NCAA might wave it for USA Hockey Arena.

I also will be interested in attendance at Manchester (2023), Providence (2024), Manchester (2025) and Worcester (2026). In 2023 and 2024 Manchester and Providence won't be competing with each other or Worcester for fans as they have in the past. In 2025 Manchester will be the only regional in New England and New York and 2026 will be a repeat of this year with Albany the nearest regional to Worcester. It will also be interesting to see if Springfield can draw a crowd in 2024, especially if UMass and UConn remain top Hockey East teams and in the national picture.

Sean
 
John J. MacInnes said:
My numbers are much more rudimentary that Sean's detailed dive, but he's absolutely correct about this being the "closest" NCAA tournament. I went all the way back to the start of the 16 team field in 2003, and only 2018 also had an average margin of victory under 2 in the previous 18 tournaments.

The average number of goals scored in a tournament was 84.2 entering the 2022 edition. So far we have a total of 63 scored over 12 games, so it's guaranteed this will not be the lowest total in the 16 team field era (since there were only 65 scored in 2018 and we're guaranteed at minimum 3 more if all the remaining games end 1-0). But we'd have to see an average of more than 6 goals a game in all the remaining games to reach that 18 year mean.
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Thanks for researching this all the way back to 2003.

Sean
 
J.D. said:
For TV purposes the new format is dynamite. No real crossover between games. So it comes down to valuing the TV experience or trying to maximize attendance. Is there a way to do both?
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And then there are the athletes. Playing back to back nights during the season is one thing. Doing it with playoff intensity - especially if you play multiple OT's the first night - has got to be tough. As a fan who doesn't get to the venues, I favor the off day.
 
manurespreader said:
LCA is booked way out and has both the Pistons and the wings. However, USA hockey arena might work if you are ok with 3500 seats, and if you could get the U 18 and U 17 teams out of there for a weekend.. it's close to AA. It even has two ice sheets.
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I'm sure they could book the LCA with enough planning. Didn't Michigan and Michigan State play there this season?
 
model94 said:
The long-standing GLI is all but dead largely because LCA is now too expensive a venue to host. I've seen that tourney as far back as Olympia Stadium.
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Well, Michigan-Michigan State used the LCA this year for a single game that was not part of the GLI. Not sure why they couldn't bid that site. Heck, the UM-MSU game got 16k fans.

That being said, I wonder what the difference in cost is for the LCA and the X. The Gophers have bid the X a handful of times.
 
J.D. said:
For TV purposes the new format is dynamite. No real crossover between games. So it comes down to valuing the TV experience or trying to maximize attendance. Is there a way to do both?
Click to expand...
I've been away from this conversation for the last few years. It's good to see that many of the best posters are still here, still keeping watch.

I agree with J.D. -- As a TV viewer, thumbs up to the new set-up. It's now possible to watch 2 Regional Finals on Saturday, and the other 2 Finals on Sunday -- without the distraction other tournament games. That's still a healthy dose of hockey, but it is doable. And to the neutral viewer, those are the most important contests. On Thursday & Friday, most of us are going to have to pick and choose. But all games are now available live. That's a significant improvement.

As for doing both good TV & maximizing attendance, the issue has always been that neutral ice has been deemed to be all-important, at the expense of tournament atmosphere. West of the Alleghenies, the most suitable arenas are home rinks for D-1 teams. By taking those venues out of the mix, you inevitably fall short of what attendance & tournament atmosphere could potentially be.

Years ago, I used to really enjoy traveling to Regionals as a neutral fan. My favorites were the tournaments that most fans love to hate: Those hosted by Yost, Munn, Mariucci and so on. Packed arenas; rocking with great hockey.

But the Regionals, as currently designed, simply aren't meant for fans like me. And I take it, aren't meant for fans like J.D. & Uncle Ray. Instead, the NCAA maximizes neutrality & provides ample seating for the traveling fans of the participating schools. Hard core supporters with a rooting interest will have an intense experience, even if the building is 2/3 empty. For the rest of us, it's no longer worth the trip.

Could you keep the 2022 TV Schedule & bring the Campus Rinks back into the mix? In theory, sure. But that train left the station a number of seasons ago. I see no chance of it returning at any time in the foreseeable future.

You get the recliner; I'll take the sofa. Pass the chips & salsa.


UncleRay said:
And then there are the athletes. Playing back to back nights during the season is one thing. Doing it with playoff intensity - especially if you play multiple OT's the first night - has got to be tough. As a fan who doesn't get to the venues, I favor the off day.
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Also agree with Uncle Ray. The new format minimizes the risk that "fatigue differential" will have a major impact on some of the most important games of the season.
 
manurespreader said:
I don't agree that it's dead. Who told you that?
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Just reading the tea leaves. The last Pre covid (2019) tournament didnt actually get scheduled until late, and then is was on a Mon / Tues. This year the venue couldn't be obtained at all. And Michigan decided the awkward replacement Munn/Yost arrangement was optional. It was a good run though. I hope I'm wrong.
 
Strange resurrecting this, but I did have a thought. What if the NCAA did this:
Thurs: 2 venues hold semis
Fri: Same 2 venues hold finals
Sat: Same as Thursday except the other 2 venues
Sun: Last 2 finals

This gets all games on TV, pretty much same as now, except that Saturday has 4 games instead of Friday having it, which should be better for TV.
The only drawback is that the first 2 regional finals are Friday night rather than Saturday, but a TV doubleheader with all games starting between 7 and 8 local time should work (maybe you have to 8:30 some years).
The Thu/Fri regional hosts don't get to host a weekend, but they do get fans only needing one night hotel stays. So, in theory, the gate should be better for the finals than it was this past year.

What do you all think?
 
Numbers said:
What do you all think?
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I don't like it. The NC$$ should focus on what they say they do - the players - instead of what they actually do - the $$. Thurs-Sat and Fri-Sun. The players need a day off, particularly after OT games. The fans can figure it out.
 
UncleRay said:
I don't like it. The NC$$ should focus on what they say they do - the players - instead of what they actually do - the $$. Thurs-Sat and Fri-Sun. The players need a day off, particularly after OT games. The fans can figure it out.
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That's a great point. A long overtime game, followed by another game for the winner the next day, is not ggod competitve balance.
 
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