Grand Unified Election Thread 2: What is the difference between Biden and Dump?

[Jimjamesak]

Texas averages 1033 sq mi per county (268k/254); Georgia just 371 (59k/159).

Rhode Island has 5 counties that average 242 sq mi.

The Municipality of Anchorage (the equivalent to a Borough/County) is the size of Rhode Island.

 

[MinnesotaNorthStar]

True, but it still has a ton of counties. Almost 100 more than Georgia (which has the 2nd most counties in the country).

Still too many. The bottom half in population all have less than 19,000 residents, 98 in the least. You could probably combine some of them. Harris (Houston) has 4.6 million, and Dallas 2.6 million.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Turnout seems down in the Republican counties by double digit points.

 

[Kepler]

Perdue just got a huge boost but looking at the counties all the big R counties have now gotten above 90%. Some of the big Dem counties are still below 50% and Fulton, which dominates the state, is still below 90%.

Go to https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/05/us/elections/results-georgia-runoffs.html

Open the + for all counties.

Sort by population.

Go to the Shift from Nov tab.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Looking very good

 

[Kepler]

Taking Cherokee as a litmus for GOP:

Perdue is +39 vs +41 in November (underperform 2)
Loeffler is +38 vs +41 in November (underperform 3)

Taking Fulton at a litmus for Dems:

Ossoff is +49 vs +42 in November (overperform 7)
Warnock is +50 vs +43 in November (overperform 7)

That looks good.

 

[BassAle]

Nate Cohn thinks the needles are overstating uncertainty at the moment. Expected result range should probably be narrower.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Looking very good

Not for me. I'm still very pessimistic.

 

[BassAle]

Not for me. I'm still very pessimistic.

democrats appear to be over performing vs models based on an election they just won in November.

 

[Jimjamesak]

democrats appear to be over performing vs models based on an election they just won in November.

Ossoff is trailing Warnock by a good margin, that concerns me.

 

[dxmnkd316]

democrats appear to be over performing vs models based on an election they just won in November.

Yeah, the key for me is the ossoff turnouts. Every dump the NYT has tracked has him taking between 0.1-3 pts higher than expected.

 

[Jimjamesak]

On the bright side, the US Junior Team are wearing the white throwback jerseys tonight.

So that's good.

 

[BassAle]

Ossoff is trailing Warnock by a good margin, that concerns me.

Tons of Atlanta area votes left to count. Ossoff is on track to win by 0.9

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Yeah, the key for me is the ossoff turnouts. Every dump the NYT has tracked has him taking between 0.1-3 pts higher than expected.

Not dump. Tranche!

 

[Kepler]

On the bright side, the US Junior Team are wearing the white throwback jerseys tonight.

So that's good.

I will permit a US win tonight if it gets me both Senate seats.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Also worth noting the same day lines that are still in queue are almost always going to be in Dem areas. So they’re going to be the last ones reporting.

lots of good to great signs for Dema

 

[dxmnkd316]

I will permit a US win tonight if it gets me both Senate seats.

I’m sorry, what?

 

[dxmnkd316]

Not dump. Tranche!

I prefer dumps. Tranche sounds like someone watched Big Short last night.

 

[Kepler]

The fact that they even do the statewide partials is stupid. These aren't leads, Wolfe. You aren't tracking the race you are tracking the order in which counties count.

For god's sake, it's not hard to understand.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

On the bright side, the US Junior Team are wearing the white throwback jerseys tonight.

So that's good.

Those are beautiful jerseys. I have a Parise one from 2010 (the ones they wore when they beat Canada that year).