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Grand Unified Election Thread 2: What is the difference between Biden and Dump?

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Fighting Sioux 23 said:
We're in the same boat. I really don't like the fact that it will be an all-Canadian officiating crew...not to mention how Canada has looked in dominating the field thus far. That being said, we have a pretty good track record in the Gold Medal Game against Canada.
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Yup, if the US gets ahead early I imagine the Canadian PPs will be coming soon after.
 
Spartanforlife4 said:
How do exit polls work when a large margin of the election is done by mail?
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I'm not sure. I'm also not sure how much of the electorate voted by mail, as opposed to say voted early in person. I would imagine you could use normal methods to capture the second group. I'm not sure how they go about capturing the first group...maybe telephone?
 
Out of approximately 1.1 million votes counted thus far (~26%), Warnock outpacing Ossoff by about 3400 votes. Loeffler lags behind Perdue by about 3900 votes. Leads me to believe that there were indeed a few hundred people who may have written in "Trump" on the Loeffler line, or chose not to vote in the Loeffler/Warnock race.
 
Micah Cohen / Nate Silver:

So the VERY EARLY numbers suggest Ossoff and Warnock slightly outperforming their November numbers. That could change of course, but I’m also seeing some speculation that the GOP vote might have become even more weighted toward Election Day than it was in November (i.e. more Republicans deciding not to vote by mail and waiting for today). Republicans were already much more likely to vote on Election Day, but two more months of Republicans falsely criticizing mail-in voting could have exacerbated the trend even more.

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I guess I’d say that’s a good reflection of how we’ll interpret the data if Republicans win. But there are other interpretations, like that their turnout is in fact depressed. And if blue counties are having big Election Day turnout, too, like we’re seeing in DeKalb County, Republicans might get the Election Day turnout they want but not win by the margins they want.
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Translation: nobody knows anything yet.
 
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Fighting Sioux 23 said:
I'm not sure. I'm also not sure how much of the electorate voted by mail, as opposed to say voted early in person. I would imagine you could use normal methods to capture the second group. I'm not sure how they go about capturing the first group...maybe telephone?
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Fivethirtyeight's blog had a post explained that exit polling shouldn't be regarded as it did pre-2020.

In case you’re tempted to pay attention to the exit polls tonight: Don’t. The same problems that existed with the exit polls in November still apply today — namely, they had to be supplemented by phone polls of absentee voters, making them about as useful as a high-quality pre-election poll. The exit polls are also still preliminary, as they will be weighted to the final result after every vote is counted. These early waves could be unrepresentative.
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It appears they are estimating approximately 1.168 million votes cast today. From the analysis I saw from before the close of polls (on CNN), Republicans were hoping for something over 1 million. So that would also appear to favor Perdue and Loeffler.
 
They must be posting results from different precincts/counties, as now Ossoff is ahead of Warnock by about 5k votes, and Loeffler is ahead of Perdue by about 5k votes.
 
The NYT swings look good. I believe they attempt to do the one analysis that matters, which is swing against theoretical 50/50 given the constituency of the counts.

Democrats are starting to pull clearly, if slightly, ahead in our estimates, as they're outperforming our expectations across all vote methods. The only good news for the GOP is that the election day turnout is a hair higher than we expected. Republican hopes rest on the election day vote; there's still a lot of it left, and maybe they'll do better with what's left than what's counted. With the race so close, they'd have to do only a little bit better than they've done so far to fight back to a dead heat.
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bronconick said:
Every time I look at Georgia it reminds me that they have too many counties.
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Didn't a "county" start out in England as 100 towns, where a "town" was about 1000 people?

There are 3,143 counties and equivalents in the US which would give 314,300,000 people. The US population is 328M -- almost perfect.
 
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Spartanforlife4 said:
Fivethirtyeight's blog had a post explained that exit polling shouldn't be regarded as it did pre-2020.
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That was kind of what I figured. When 3 million people vote before the Election Day the exit polls are going to be off. That isnt to say it means the Dems are doing better than the exit polls are saying, it just means they dont have the same value they normally do.

I am glad I dont live in GA. Having to sweat this out would be really annoying on top of the crap already going on. Since I am assuming split anyways (which is a net loss of Senate control) the odds are against a favorable outcome. I will check this thread from time to time and hope. Maybe after the gf goes to bed I will flip on King or Kornacki if things get interesting but I dont feel the juice over this one like I do over other elections.
 
There are lots of issues with exit polling now. Some of it is the big split in early vs day of in person. Some of it is Dumpies may actually be lying as part of their Double Secret Operation Chaos imbecility. Micah has been particularly direct in saying he doesn't believe the modeling even knows whether it still fits during the Nazi Era.
 
With nearly 100 percent of the expected vote in, Ossoff appears to have won Washington County with 51.2 percent to Perdue’s 48.8 percent, per the AP.

That’s a flip from November, when Perdue won the county by 1.6 points.
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