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Gaza 2023: The Next Episode

Wonder if they’d listened to a he instead of a she on the warning?

They are People of the Book. Not a great record with listening to the womenfolk.

Although at least the Israelis have had female leaders. Actually, so have the Muzzies. Just not Amerika: the place you send your dumbest fundies, regardless of faith.
 
This new revelation really pisses me off. Is this the right wing playbook for everything? Create unnecessary failure in government so you can implement your draconian authoritarian bullshit?
 
I feel like half of the world’s countries have elected at least one female leader in their history. We’d rather have a raper of females than a female run ours, so, yeah.
 
This new revelation really ****es me off. Is this the right wing playbook for everything? Create unnecessary failure in government so you can implement your draconian authoritarian bull****?

There was a book a few decades ago about policy decisions that deliberately generate crises in order to provoke chaos and give authoritarians a foothold among the more cowardly part of the populace. It is how the Nazis and Mussolini gained power, as well as Putin, and it's the right wing playbook. You see Dump trying to do it here.

But it is the edge case for all conservative strategy. Make the people afraid so they give up their rights to you. Pay mercenaries to attack the village so the peasants have to take refuge behind your castle walls, where they now become your slaves.

Those two characteristics -- fear and exploitation -- exhaust the possibilities of the conservative soul. They are the sheep and the wolves; they just aren't men.
 
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This was exactly what I suggested when this first happened, using what some people believed about Pearl Harbor as my example. And I was shot down. I think you were one of the ones who shot me down…

I did. I thought it was crazy. I apologize. I should never, ever underestimate the malevolence of the Right.
 
Putting this here so as to not clog another thread.

minnesotas council for Islamic American relations has filed a complaint with US dept of education against Edina public schools

there was a planned walkout a few weeks ago to support ceasefire or Palestine, not entirely sure how it was worded as I don’t have kids and didn’t see the invite.

Edina public schools apparently suspended a few kids for using “from the river to the sea” and the statement EPS released said although they support the first amendment, they also have strong policies prohibiting any type of discrimination based on religion protected under MN human rights act” amd that first amendment isn’t unfettered
 
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So on that intelligence report. This seems... damning. However - and this is a big however - before I let my confirmation bias get the best of me, I have some questions:
  1. How specific was this intelligence?
  2. How believable was it? It seems like it was pretty damn close to what eventually transpired, but who pushed it? Was it some shlep that no one listened to? How was it actually presented?
  3. How far up the chain did it actually get? Was this something that was presented to Netanyahu at all? Sorta ties in with question 2 - what was presented to him and how was it presented?
Presidents are given a metric fuckload of intelligence briefings. Many of them incredibly dire sounding. I'm absolutely not defending Netanyahu here. I just want the facts before I set my ire on him. He gets zero benefit of the doubt, but all the same...
 
LOL. This is why I was shocked when you first disagreed with me. You of all people... :-)

It was more that I doubted a conspiracy could be maintained with intel like that. It passes through too many hands, from collection through curation to conditioning to analytics. And stuff like that gets triangulated to hell, so it's not like one analyst working late one night would put it all together, like in a movie. It's dozens of people, if not more, all finding different parts of the elephant. That's too many faucets to tighten.

Also, the IC has a fun little secret: it is riddled with different power centers and pressure groups and agenda-driven entities (the agenda typically being getting funding). If x knows something then y and z know it, and the chances that x, y, and z would all agree to suppress it are miniscule.

But maybe Israel is different.
 
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So on that intelligence report. This seems... damning. However - and this is a big however - before I let my confirmation bias get the best of me, I have some questions:
  1. How specific was this intelligence?
  2. How believable was it? It seems like it was pretty damn close to what eventually transpired, but who pushed it? Was it some shlep that no one listened to? How was it actually presented?
  3. How far up the chain did it actually get? Was this something that was presented to Netanyahu at all? Sorta ties in with question 2 - what was presented to him and how was it presented?
Presidents are given a metric ****load of intelligence briefings. Many of them incredibly dire sounding. I'm absolutely not defending Netanyahu here. I just want the facts before I set my ire on him. He gets zero benefit of the doubt, but all the same...

Members of his administration goofing up and admitting they think of Hamas as an asset in the past make it seem more believable.
 
Members of his administration goofing up and admitting they think of Hamas as an asset in the past make it seem more believable.

The Far Right need each other. Perpetual chaos and pain keep them in office.

It's not (Likud + Israel) vs (Hamas + Palestine). It's (Likud + Hamas) vs (Israel + Palestine).
 
Members of his administration goofing up and admitting they think of Hamas as an asset in the past make it seem more believable.

IIRC, I was a naysayer to the charge that "Netanhayu knew", primarily because I am not a believer in the "FDR knew" and/or "Bush knew" conspiracies. Whatever the supposedly nefarious goals of an administration are, such conspiracies typically make no sense because the ends (starting a war/being a wartime leader) don't justify the death and destruction of the initial attack unless you're a sociopath or a moron.

But in light of Netanhayu and senior members of his admin potentially seeing Hamas as an asset to seizing more power, that puts a much different spin on the conspiracy. Maybe they are just sick enough to have let it happen. And if so, they belong in The Hague.
 
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So on that intelligence report. This seems... damning. However - and this is a big however - before I let my confirmation bias get the best of me, I have some questions:
  1. How specific was this intelligence?
  2. How believable was it? It seems like it was pretty damn close to what eventually transpired, but who pushed it? Was it some shlep that no one listened to? How was it actually presented?
  3. How far up the chain did it actually get? Was this something that was presented to Netanyahu at all? Sorta ties in with question 2 - what was presented to him and how was it presented?
Presidents are given a metric ****load of intelligence briefings. Many of them incredibly dire sounding. I'm absolutely not defending Netanyahu here. I just want the facts before I set my ire on him. He gets zero benefit of the doubt, but all the same...

Instead of "Bin laden determined to strike America" it was "bin Laden going to use commercial 757 cross country aircraft out of Logan, Newark, and DC to fly into the WTC and pentagon using box cutters to hijack the planes"

here's a gift link Jamelle Bouie posted on Bluesky. The report was pretty specific. It detailed which military base they wanted to overrun (and did!) and how they were going to do it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/...e_code=1.Ck0.aRkB.mYA98gOY3g96&smid=url-share
 
Instead of "Bin laden determined to strike America" it was "bin Laden going to use commercial 757 cross country aircraft out of Logan, Newark, and DC to fly into the WTC and pentagon using box cutters to hijack the planes"

here's a gift link Jamelle Bouie posted on Bluesky. The report was pretty specific. It detailed which military base they wanted to overrun (and did!) and how they were going to do it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/...e_code=1.Ck0.aRkB.mYA98gOY3g96&smid=url-share

Yeah, I'd heard that the info was incredibly specific. But again, how high did it get? Who was pushing it, and how well were they listened to? This is a story that could rise to the level of bringing a government down.
 
Yeah, I'd heard that the info was incredibly specific. But again, how high did it get? Who was pushing it, and how well were they listened to? This is a story that could rise to the level of bringing a government down.

Now that the story is out you know there will be journalists digging in Israel to get to the truth. And it would be so on brand for the Right to intentionally allow an attack for their political advantage that if there is a speck of truth to it there is going to be a huge political crisis in the country. I can't see the military going along with allowing an attack, in the same way that I can't see the US military going along with the GOP coup. Sure, there will be hordes of derpy orcs in the lower ranks, but not the professional soldiers and the folks with dignity who actually care about protecting their country.

Maybe Israel will finally pop its Likud zit.
 
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Seems like the story is getting more interesting. Looks like a lot of short trading of companies associated with Israel in the few days leading up to the attack. Like, an abnormal amount of short trading.
 
Now that the story is out you know there will be journalists digging in Israel to get to the truth. And it would be so on brand for the Right to intentionally allow an attack for their political advantage that if there is a speck of truth to it there is going to be a huge political crisis in the country. I can't see the military going along with allowing an attack, in the same way that I can't see the US military going along with the GOP coup. Sure, there will be hordes of derpy orcs in the lower ranks, but not the professional soldiers and the folks with dignity who actually care about protecting their country.

Maybe Israel will finally pop its Likud zit.

Don't ascribe to malice what can be explained by incompetence
 
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