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Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of letters

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

TonyTheTiger20 said:
The bracket is updated with final results, which should cut down on a ton of input: https://www.bcinterruption.com/bost...nsin-minnesota-northeastern-boston-college-bc
Click to expand...

That's a pretty cool little calculator there. In my calculations, looks like a HE team is heading to rodentapolis or Madison depending on which one wins the wwcha title.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Timothy A said:
That's a pretty cool little calculator there. In my calculations, looks like a HE team is heading to rodentapolis or Madison depending on which one wins the wwcha title.
Click to expand...
Well, there are plenty of scenarios that have BC/NU in the top 6. The most likely way a WHEA team is going west though is if BC loses to BU in the semifinals.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

joecct said:
Grant - isn't #8 1st out due to CHA AQ?
Click to expand...
It is. The autobids are added into the final field once the full bracket is filled out. Until that time, it just shows the top 10 in the Pairwise since there's no CHA champ to assign #8 to yet.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Timothy A said:
That's a pretty cool little calculator there. In my calculations, looks like a HE team is heading to rodentapolis or Madison depending on which one wins the wwcha title.
Click to expand...

My own quick work seems to suggest that if BC wins the semi over BU, then it is both difficult (impossible?) to get BU back in the field, and makes it difficult for BC to remain 7th and take a trip west.

OTOH, if BU wins that semi, there are results in the ECAC which leave BC out by a strict interpretation of PWR (which the committee could bypass), and if UMD or OSU wins the WCHA, then BC can easily be out as well.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Numbers said:
My own quick work seems to suggest that if BC wins the semi over BU, then it is both difficult (impossible?) to get BU back in the field, and makes it difficult for BC to remain 7th and take a trip west.

OTOH, if BU wins that semi, there are results in the ECAC which leave BC out by a strict interpretation of PWR (which the committee could bypass), and if UMD or OSU wins the WCHA, then BC can easily be out as well.
Click to expand...
Yes I agree with all of this -- I haven't been able to find a way to keep BU in if BC beats them on Saturday. Same with BC in 7th, I can't find a way to get BC below 6th if they beat BU.

I think BC's main path to getting in with a loss to BU right now is hoping for Clarkson/Cornell (ECAC), NU/BU (WHEA), and UM/UW (WCHA) champions. With those I think we're good. Not that backing into the tournament and having to go to Wisconsin or Minnesota is anything to be excited about.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Yes I agree with all of this -- I haven't been able to find a way to keep BU in if BC beats them on Saturday. Same with BC in 7th, I can't find a way to get BC below 6th if they beat BU.

I think BC's main path to getting in with a loss to BU right now is hoping for Clarkson/Cornell (ECAC), NU/BU (WHEA), and UM/UW (WCHA) champions. With those I think we're good. Not that backing into the tournament and having to go to Wisconsin or Minnesota is anything to be excited about.
Click to expand...

I think I am more interested in what the committee does, theoretically, if BU defeats BC, and NU wins the final, with all other results going according to seed EXCEPT Colgate winning the ECAC (as an example).
In this case, you have:
BU 7th with an RPI of 5698
BC 9th with an RPI of 5780.

That's a huge RPI difference.
Is the slight difference in CommOpp in favor of BU offset by the RPI?
How much weight would the committee give to the 3-1 H2H advantage?
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Numbers said:
I think I am more interested in what the committee does, theoretically, if BU defeats BC, and NU wins the final, with all other results going according to seed EXCEPT Colgate winning the ECAC (as an example).
In this case, you have:
BU 7th with an RPI of 5698
BC 9th with an RPI of 5780.

That's a huge RPI difference.
Is the slight difference in CommOpp in favor of BU offset by the RPI?
How much weight would the committee give to the 3-1 H2H advantage?
Click to expand...

I can't possibly imagine the committee flipping BC into the tournament in favor of BU if BU wins H2H 3-1. That's a massive advantage, arguably one that's bigger than the RPI advantage. There's just no way, IMO.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

I was able to find a scenario where BU stays in even if they lose to BC: https://twitter.com/Salzano14/status/1102205830378721281

There are still scenarios out there where Providence would get in even if they lose in the semifinals. How weird is that?
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

ARM said:
You say that BU needs Northeastern to win HEA, but your bracket shows BC winning in that scenario and BU still in? :confused:
Click to expand...

You're right, what was I talking about there... that might have been necessary if Clarkson won rather than Cornell, off the top of my head... I'm running on not much sleep the last two nights lol
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Working the BC over BU angle a little harder after today's games.....
If BC beats BU, then BU needs an RPI higher than either Providence and Princeton. (7 teams qualify plus the autobid from CHA)
Thus, Princeton needs to lose the ECAC semi and Providence needs to lose the HEA semi.
Inputting both of those....the next best is that the teams which beat of those in the semis must lose the finals (Cornell and NE).
This, however, still leaves BU short by .0003 in the RPI.
Fiddling with the WCHA makes things worse.

So, it appears to me that BU is out if they lose the semi.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Yep... I think Harvard losing to Colgate did them in.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

This is a bit of a weird one...

... but now that the CHA games are final (and they did make a difference in this), I cannot find a way for Ohio State to get an at-large bid IF Providence beats Northeastern.

(And there may not be a way if BU beats BC)
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

being the last one to include Providence in the top ten poll, I'm feeling somewhat vindicated, although surprised, that there are so many scenarios where they make it in
it also appears to me that unless WI wants to play OSU in the 1/4 finals, they should probably think about eliminating them Saturday
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

robertearle said:
This is a bit of a weird one...

... but now that the CHA games are final (and they did make a difference in this), I cannot find a way for Ohio State to get an at-large bid IF Providence beats Northeastern.

(And there may not be a way if BU beats BC)
Click to expand...

I'm finding the same result, and also with Princeton.

For OSU - they need to beat Wisconsin, and then they need either:
All of Princeton, BU and Providence lose in the semis, or
OSU needs to beat Minnesota as well.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

There are several articles going around trying to make some sense of the Pairwise:

Here's mine which is BC focused:
https://www.bcinterruption.com/bost...les-womens-hockey-ncaa-tournament-frozen-four

Here's Nicole Haase's for USCHO:
https://www.uscho.com/2019/03/07/womens-d-i-pairwise-preview-of-ncaa-tournament-possibilities/

Another one from Nicole for Victory Press:
https://victorypress.org/2019/03/08/ncaa-womens-hockey-what-to-watch-week-25-2/

And one from Nate Wells for NCAA.com:
https://www.ncaa.com/news/icehockey-women/2019-03-08/womens-hockey-ncaa-tournament-bracketology

And lastly, one from Nate Vaughan at The Ice Garden:
https://www.theicegarden.com/2019/3/6/18251040/ncaa-womens-hockey-bracketology-semifinals
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

TonyTheTiger20 said:
There are several articles going around trying to make some sense of the Pairwise:

Here's mine which is BC focused:
https://www.bcinterruption.com/bost...les-womens-hockey-ncaa-tournament-frozen-four
Click to expand...

... even though BU gains a head to head point against BC in the semifinals, it doesn’t affect the two teams’ common opponents record... but BU losing to PC does just enough to drop the comparison into BC’s lap.
Click to expand...
It wouldn't be unprecedented for the committee to decide that a +2 advantage in H2H trumps a PairWise win based on a slight advantage gained by BU losing in the HEA final that made a change in COP.

Like Al Davis used to say, "Just win, baby."
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

ARM said:
Like Al Davis used to say, "Just win, baby."
Click to expand...

Yeah, most of those "just win, baby" folks have mush for brains now if they are even still alive.

Football still has safety issues but thankfully there are better player safety rules than when these idiots played.

The Raider's way.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

You do know that wasn't the point I was making, right? ;)
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

ARM said:
You do know
Click to expand...

I only know that I was trying figure out a way to use "mush for brains" in a post...

Oh yeah and there probably is a point relating to some eastern team, nobody shows up to watch, needing to win to take care of bidness, right? :D
 
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