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Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

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Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Alright, I'm confused.

According to the RPI:

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/rpi/d-i-women/

--Holy Cross is 2-0-0 (two wins over Sacred Heart) and Sacred Heart is 0-3-0 (two losses to Holy Cross and one loss to Yale).
--Franklin Pierce, St. Michael's, and St. Anselm are all 0-0-0.

But that's not true.

St. Michael's lost to St. Anselm, Holy Cross and Franklin Pierce. They should be 0-3-0.
St. Anselm beat Franklin Pierce and St. Michael's and lost to Holy Cross. They should be 2-1-0.
Franklin Pierce beat Holy Cross, St. Michael's, and Sacred Heart, and lost to St. Anselm. They should be 3-1-0.

So Holy Cross should be 4-1-0, and Sacred Heart should be 0-4-0.

Why is USCHO not counting all of these games? It was made 100% clear to me by the Championships Coordinator of the NCAA that all of these games between D1 and DII teams count in the RPI.

It doesn't affect anyone's RPI but Yale's, but it is skewing Yale's RPI. Yale should be .4781, not .4765 according to USCHO's RPI.
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St M., St A., and FP are division 2 schools, not division 1 (which HC and SC are). So they don't count in the RPI calculation.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

QU is in for an RPI tumble, but they will still be solidly in 4th. Here is the PWR including all games for today except OSU/UMD, BSU/MSU, and Cuse/RIT:

Rank Team Comparisons Won RPI
1 Boston College 15 0.6977
2 Minnesota 14 0.6612
3 Wisconsin 13 0.6453
4 Quinnipiac 12 0.6183
5 Harvard 11 0.5860
6 Mercyhurst 10 0.5774
7 Boston University 9 0.5860
8 Minnesota-Duluth 8 0.5733
9 Bemidji State 7 0.5629
10 Clarkson 6 0.5597
11 St. Lawrence 5 0.5386
12 Ohio State 4 0.5319
13 Cornell 3 0.5202
14 North Dakota 2 0.5163
15 Princeton 1 0.5124
16 Dartmouth 0 0.5053
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Cali said:
My understanding was that all D1 games between D1 and D2 schools counted but to be included you still needed to be a D1 school.
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No, that's why it is called a National Collegiate Tournament rather than D-I, because it includes D-II
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

ARM said:
No, that's why it is called a National Collegiate Tournament rather than D-I, because it includes D-II
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Very dumb. But nonetheless I am about 95% sure that USCHO is doing Yale's RPI wrong.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

The KRACH page is now current. The order of the top four is the same as in PWR. After that there are some differences, particularly Bemidji State, which is #5 in KRACH and #9 in PWR; the team it replaces in the top 8 spots is Mercyhurst (#9 KRACH and #7 PWR). Since the CHA gets an autobid, the team that would make the tournament right now instead of Bemidji is Boston U.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1. Boston College - The last unbeaten- 6 Goals/Game scored vs 1 Goal per game given up makes a statement
2. Minnesota - 19 goals on the weekend WOW
3. Wisconsin - Keep winning
4. Boston U - Lefort and Poulin have them winning
5. Quinnipiac - A tie and loss drops them 1 place
6. UMD - Why not , the third best team in the toughest league
7. Harvard - Takes care of Quinny
8. Bemidji - The 4th best WCHA by record, but may be the 3rd best due to head to head results.
9. Mercyhurst - The Florida State of College Hockey, good team in a suspect league
10. Cornell - The Jenner and Saulnier Show do in the North Country


Dropped out: Clarkson. Much as I hate doing this, getting clobbered by Cornell and not beating any of the other Top 10 teams that they played has me dropping them to "Others with votes" catagory.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

vicb said:
6. UMD - Why not , the third best team in the toughest league
. . .
8. Bemidji - The 4th best WCHA by record, but may be the 3rd best due to head to head results.
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Its not just you but this keeps coming up. Why is UMD 6 & Bemidji 8 when the 2 split & BSU beat MN, which UMD could not?
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

ne7minder said:
Its not just you but this keeps coming up. Why is UMD 6 & Bemidji 8 when the 2 split & BSU beat MN, which UMD could not?
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My guess is that a lot of people expect that UMD will finish higher based on past history. It isn't a clearcut choice, because in addition to better results versus UM, BSU did better versus UND, scored more goals H2H, and played Wisconsin more competitively. UMD did better versus Ohio State and has the sweep of Cornell, which is more impressive than any of BSU's nonconference results. I have been going with BSU based on the eye test and more consistent goaltending, but the two are very close.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

ne7minder said:
Its not just you but this keeps coming up. Why is UMD 6 & Bemidji 8 when the 2 split & BSU beat MN, which UMD could not?
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Well, UMD is currently 3rd in the WCHA with Bemidji 5th. Bulldogs sweep OSU where OSU swept Bemidji. The two teams are very very close but I give UMD the edge because BSU hasn't had to play games every weekend. I think all of their bye weeks are working heavily in their favor with a bye week before they played Wisconsin and before they played UMD. With them playing almost every week for the next 6 weeks, it will be a test to see if they can actually compete week after week. We'll find out in 5 weeks when UMD and BSU face off again. UMD has come from behind to win (including SO wins) or tie (UConn) in 7 games. You can't count out a team that finds the way to win with their backs against the wall
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1) Boston College
2) Minnesota
3) Wisconsin
4) Quinnipiac
5) Bemidji State
6) Minnesota-Duluth
7) Boston University
8) Harvard
9) Clarkson
10) St. Lawrence
 
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Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1 Boston College -- Clear
2 Wisconsin -- Big
3 Minnesota -- Three

I am having excruciating difficulty in placing Wisconsin and Minnesota. I was pretty strongly feeling that Wisconsin is better than Minnesota before this weekend, but Wisco didn't impress at all, and Minnesota blew out St. Cloud. I know, St. Cloud, but they straight up pulled a BC.

4 Quinnipiac -- Tough weekend. They are now in with the rest of the top 10 rather than with the top 3, but for now I still think they deserve to be 4th.

5 through 9 are really close.

5 Mercyhurst -- Playing more bad opponents, but blowing them out. I'll give them the edge for now.

6 Bemidji State -- Really unimpressive weekend despite sweeping Mankato. But still got the W's.

7 Boston University -- Looking a little scarier with Poulin back.

8 Harvard -- Now that's that Harvard we were all expecting.

9 Minnesota-Duluth -- Tough dropping them this far. They are closer to 5th than they are to 10th. Only one in this group to drop a game this weekend, so they are at the bottom.

And lastly,

10 Clarkson -- I think we all expected Cornell to be better than Clarkson, but given how badly Cornell has started, that result was unexpected.

Cornell isn't far out now, but they're still on the outside looking in. St. Lawrence drop out as well thanks to Harvard's excellent weekend.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

TonyTheTiger20 said:
5 Mercyhurst -- Playing more bad opponents, but blowing them out. I'll give them the edge for now.

...

9 Minnesota-Duluth -- Tough dropping them this far. They are closer to 5th than they are to 10th. Only one in this group to drop a game this weekend, so they are at the bottom.
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Something to consider regarding these two. They played common opponents of both this week. MU went 2-0-1 versus Cornell and Lindenwood; UMD was 4-0-0 against those two teams. UMD went 1-0-1 versus Ohio State. MU was 1-0-0 against the Buck's. So for those common opponents, UMD is 5-0-1, and Mercyhurst is 3-0-1. Not a lot of separation either way.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

I've also been having an internal debate between Wisconsin and Minnesota, but I've finally come to the decision to move the Gophers ahead of the Badgers this week. I had the Badgers in the No. 2 spot ever since the Gophers' disappointing one point weekend against Bemidji State. Even though they've won nine in row since then, they haven't been able to generate more than five goals of offense in any of those games. This led me to question their lack of scoring punch as of late, especially considering that those nine games were all against unranked teams. But after witnessing both games this weekend's offensive outburst I've put those concerns aside, at least for now...they were clicking on all cylinders. The 17 goals in two games - while not giving up anything - coupled with their earlier head-to-head sweep of the Badgers were enough for me to nudge the Gophers ahead....but these two teams still are very close IMO.

I am also moving BU up, mainly because my previous mid-pack teams stumbled a bit (other than the Beavers, who did beat MN-State twice, but not very convincingly). Also, in moving the Terriers up I'm assuming they'll handle the Friars fairly easily tomorrow evening:

1. Boston College
2. Minnesota
3. Wisconsin
4. Boston University
5. Quinnipiac
6. Bemidji State
7. Minnesota-Duluth
8. Harvard
9. Cornell
10. Mercyhurst

Also receiving consideration:
Clarkson
North Dakota
St. Lawrence
 
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Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

D2D said:
I've also been having an internal debate between Wisconsin and Minnesota, but I've finally come to the decision to move the Gophers ahead of the Badgers this week. I had the Badgers in the No. 2 spot ever since the Gophers' disappointing one point weekend against Bemidji State. Even though they've won nine in row since then, they haven't been able to generate more than five goals of offense in any of those games. This led me to question their lack of scoring punch as of late, especially considering that those nine games were all against unranked teams. But after witnessing both games this weekend's offensive outburst I've put those concerns aside, at least for now...they were clicking on all cylinders. The 17 goals in two games - while not giving up anything - coupled with their earlier head-to-head sweep of the Badgers were enough for me to nudge the Gophers ahead....but these two teams still are very close IMO.
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We'll get a better idea shortly after play resumes in January. Should be a good one.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

There are a lot of really good games right after the break. I don't have a clue what to think about BU but that should become clear pretty quickly.

I hope we pound them into the ground.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1 Boston College
2 Minnesota
3 Wisconsin
4 Quinnipiac
5 Boston University
6 Mercyhurst
7 Bemidji
7 UMD
9 Harvard
10 Cornell
 
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