Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

[goaliedad35]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1. Minny
2. Harvard
3. Wisco
4. BC
5. QU
6. UND
7. Mercyhurst
8. UMD
9. Cornell
10 Northeastern

 

[Hockeysbest]

[Harvard 2? Not a chance!!!
]1. Minny
2. Harvard
3. Wisco
4. BC
5. QU
6. UND
7. Mercyhurst
8. UMD
9. Cornell
10 Northeastern[/QUOTE]

 

[Hockeysbest]

1. Minny
2. Harvard
3. Wisco
4. BC
5. QU
6. UND
7. Mercyhurst
8. UMD
9. Cornell
10 Northeastern[first let me profess I am a fan of good hockey not of one team. My assessment is based on what I've seen of the team or certain players on the team:
1. Minnesota (Hannah Brandt is a joy to watch. But if that first line doesn't score they are beatable).
2/3:BC and Wisconsin: great players on both rosters. My favorite here being Alex Carpenter. It will boil down to goaltending and coaching in the end.
4. Harvard I'm not convinced yet but on paper they have some great players. In the end I don't think they will be top 5!
5-10: wide open with the edge to where the great players or teams are
Boston University: Poulin is another of my favorites and Lefort can score. Goaltending will be the issue.
UMD: Much better than last year with the addition of some really good Swedes. Btw they won against the Gophers, not a 3-0 win but still a win if you end up with 2 pts and your opponent has 1. They showed they can run with the top teams but need more scoring.
Quinnipiac: a few great players but not playing against anyone that matters right now.
Clarkson: I don't know much about this team but the new FR goalie seems very solid which is good news for this team. They should stay on this list- good coaching.
Cornell: just taking everybody's word for this one as I haven't seen them play.
That's all I can list. UND lost Tapani and Karvinen and didn't gain anyone so I don't see them hanging with the rest and Bemidji looks like they've really improved.


]5.

 

[goaliedad35]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

It will boil down to goaltending and coaching in the end.

Couldn't agree more!!

 

[vicb]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1) Minnesota
2) Boston College
3) Wisconsin
4) Harvard
5) Quinnipiac
6) Mercyhurst
7) Boston University
8) Cornell
9) North Dakota
10) Winner Tuesday of the Clarkson-St Lawrence game.

After the first 3, you can put the rest of the team names in a hat and draw them at random.

Clarkson 5 SLU 0 So I guess it will have to be CCT in the number 10 spot .

 

[D2D]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1. Minnesota
2. Wisconsin
3. Boston College
4. Harvard
5. Quinnipiac
6. Boston University
7. Clarkson
8. Mercyhurst
9. Cornell
10. Minnesota-Duluth

 

[Trillium]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

REVISION:

1. Minnesota
2. Boston College
3. Wisconsin

BIG GAP

4. Quinnipiac

GAP
5. Harvard generous, considering they haven't played, but then again no one else deserves to be this high yet either
6. BU the best of the rest to this point with some key wins, despite 1 loss to Maine. Might be hard-pressed to stay here without Poulin
7. Clarkson makes the jump based on 2-1 record vs SLU, including the 5-0 romp tonight. MacAulay and Bannon on fire
8. Cornell generous based on 2x shellacking by BC, but after all it is BC and they're still rusty, but there IS some impressive talent here
9. SLU decent consistency and some tough competition; here because no one else looks better yet
10. Bemidji could pick any one of a bunch, but give them Top 10 nod based on playing Wisco to within a goal twice despite big loss in their first game to OSU. Did the same for Cornell, so why not?

5-10 pretty much a toss-up--with about 7 other teams close to making the jump into the bracket instead. Northeastern, UMD, UND, Mercyhurst have underwhelmed. IMHO, they don't yet show they belong on the list despite many giving them the nod again based on past glory.

 

[PuckRush]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

REVISION:

1. Minnesota
2. Boston College
3. Wisconsin

BIG GAP

4. Quinnipiac

GAP
5. Harvard generous, considering they haven't played, but then again no one else deserves to be this high yet either
6. BU the best of the rest to this point with some key wins, despite 1 loss to Maine. Might be hard-pressed to stay here without Poulin
7. Clarkson makes the jump based on 2-1 record vs SLU, including the 5-0 romp tonight. MacAulay and Bannon on fire
8. Cornell generous based on 2x shellacking by BC, but after all it is BC and they're still rusty, but there IS some impressive talent here
9. SLU decent consistency and some tough competition; here because no one else looks better yet
10. Bemidji could pick any one of a bunch, but give them Top 10 nod based on playing Wisco to within a goal twice despite big loss in their first game to OSU. Did the same for Cornell, so why not?

5-10 pretty much a toss-up--with about 7 other teams close to making the jump into the bracket instead. Northeastern, UMD, UND, Mercyhurst have underwhelmed. IMHO, they don't yet show they belong on the list despite many giving them the nod again based on past glory.

Pretty good ranking and I agree on the underwhelmed list. I might have favored Yale for that #10 spot, and understand not slotting Vermont given that Bemidji beat them. A bit concerned about SLU after watching them play Clarkson. Not a lot of offensive prowess tonight. Their top defensive pairing looks great - but Boulier had to play tons of minutes.

 

[NUWH DogHouse]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1. Minnesota
2. bc
3. Wisconsin
4. Harvard
5. Quinnipiac
6. Cornell
7. Clarkson
8. Bemidji St
9. St. Lawrence
10. Minnesota-Duluth

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1. Minnesota -- That North Dakota game was something else
2. Boston College -- Well that was certainly what I was hoping to see.
3. Wisconsin -- Had a weekend that seemed very similar to BC's against SLU.
4. Harvard -- ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
5. Quinnipiac -- Looking pretty darn good. Gonna be fun to watch in the ECAC.
6. Mercyhurst -- Nice sweep.
7. Cornell -- Looked much better on Saturday.
8. Boston University -- Without Poutine they got burned by Maine. Yikes. Would like to know when she's returning.
9. St. Lawrence -- Big game against Clarkson Tuesday night.
10. North Dakota -- Saturday was a very bad game against Minnesota, even by typical-games-against-Minnesota standards. Yikes. I mean really, my goodness.

I am also posting an update:

1) Minny
2) BC
3) Wisco
4) Havrad
5) Quinny
6) The Hurst
7) Candy Cornell
8) Gross
9) NoDak
10) Clarky

 

[ManBehindTheCurtain]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1. Boston College, the evidence is beginning to be overwhelming.
2. Harvard, they have to be good just based on geographical proximity to BC.
3. Quinnipiac, that's Connecticut, right? pretty close to Boston
4. Cornell, this team looks super strong to me as the only negatives on their record are the 6-2, 6-2 losses to BC (see above).
5. Maine, the current holders of the Championship Belt
6. Boston University, if only their best player had not missed the games against Maine they probably still would hold the belt.
7. Mercyhurst looks pretty good, wasn't that western powerhouse Mankato that they swept?
8. St. Lawrence, still playing huge after the early season close loss and tie against the very, very clear number 1.
9. Wisconsin because they were number 1 a couple of weeks ago and just because they lost a couple of games they shouldn't be downgraded that much, they did come back to sweep Bemidji.
10. Bemidji, why not?

OK, but only because . . .

Oh, I don't know why.

Update.

1. Minnesota
2. Wisconsin
3. Boston College
4. Quinnipiac
5. Boston University
6. Mercyhurst
7. Harvard
8. Cornell
9. Clarkson
10. North Dakota

 

[mattj711]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1. Minnesota
2. Boston College
3. Wisconsin
4. Harvard
5. Boston University
6. Quinnipiac
7. Mercyhurst
8. Cornell
9. Clarkson
10. North Dakota

 

[Bhikukhu]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1. Minnesota
2. Boston College
3. Wisconsin
4. Harvard
5. Quinnipiac
6. Boston University
7. Cornell (can't fault them too much for having to play #2 on first weekend)
8. Mercyhurst
9. Clarkson
10. Yale

11. SLU (would have been 10 if they had kept it closer last night)

 

[Trillium]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Please help me understand why the official poll, and many/most in the posters' poll have Mercyhurst ranked as high as 6-7.

For the life of me I don't get it.

Despite having played 8 games, all against low end teams (2 games each vs teams ranked #20, #21, #32 and #33 in Rutter), they still have a loss and a tie.

Furthermore, with so many cupcake games, you would think the offensive numbers should be high if they are a Top 10 team, with some high scoring games. Yet they are only averaging 2.38 goals/game to date.

In most of the games (5/8) they had 30 or less shots on goal, and only managed 20 shots on goal in one game against Providence.

Comparing Providence performances (W3-0, W2-0) their wins were less impressive than those of Clarkson (W5-0, W3-0) or for that matter Yale (W6-2, W5-2), who was playing its first games of the season.

Their record against Maine (W1-0, T2-2) does not compare at all well to Quinnipiac's (W4-0, W2-0). RMU also beat Maine 1-0. Maine beat UNH.

Mercyhurst also split versus Northeastern (L4-0, W4-2), a team that has tied Syracuse (Rutter # 24), RIT (Rutter #18) and RMU (Rutter #22), as well as lost to RMU.

There has been no depth from the Mercyhurst offence either. Only 1 player, Janiga, is averaging > 0.5 goal/game, with only 1 other player >0.25 goals/game.

Unfortunately, their entire season's schedule is soft, with only 1 game planned versus Cornell in December, and 2 versus SLU in January. How long is it possible to pretend a team belongs in the rankings just because they continue to rack up (mostly) wins against weak teams?

.....and please don't use the "historical performance" rationale. They graduated 3 high end players (Bestland, Cicero, Chippy) who combined for 115 points last season. They have no hope of coming anywhere close to replacing that with their freshmen class, which is unimpressive by both historical and comparative standards.

 

[brookyone]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1) Minnesota
2) Boston College
3) Wisconsin
4) Harvard
5) Quinnipiac
6) North Dakota
7) Cornell
8) Boston University
9) Clarkson
10) Minnesota Duluth

Final revision for the week:

1) Minnesota
2) Boston College
3) Wisconsin
4) Harvard...pretty much a sheeple vote
5) Quinnipiac
6) Cornell
7) Clarkson
8) Boston University
9) North Dakota...think they're better but they have to show me...this weekend
10) Mercyhurst...I guess...not truly convinced they belong. Minnesota Duluth would be my alternate at #10

 

[ARM]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

They graduated 4 high end players (Bestland, Cicero, Bram, Chippy) who combined for 150 points last season.

Bram is a senior this year.

 

[Trillium]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Bram is a senior this year.

Thanks. My mistake. Corrected post. The argument still stands.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

OK, but only because . . .

Oh, I don't know why.

Update.

1. Minnesota
2. Wisconsin
3. Boston College
4. Quinnipiac
5. Boston University
6. Mercyhurst
7. Harvard
8. Cornell
9. Clarkson
10. North Dakota

Probably because trolling is only fun when you get a response.

Thanks. My mistake. Corrected post. The argument still stands.

To me the most interesting thing is the spread of votes on Mercyhurst. A bunch of people left them off entirely and a bunch of people had them 4-7th. Not too many people have them 8th-10th, comparatively speaking. Pretty much the opposite of a bell curve with them.

 

[Trillium]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Probably because trolling is only fun when you get a response.


To me the most interesting thing is the spread of votes on Mercyhurst. A bunch of people left them off entirely and a bunch of people had them 4-7th. Not too many people have them 8th-10th, comparatively speaking. Pretty much the opposite of a bell curve with them.

I think that distribution actually explains the phenomena at play. I believe that those who are really evaluating their performance in any depth don't have them on the list. Those who give historical performance/consistency much weight rather than evaluating current results, especially with limited early season results available, are ranking them similarly to in past years.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

I think that distribution actually explains the phenomena at play. I believe that those who are really evaluating their performance in any depth don't have them on the list. Those who give historical performance/consistency much weight rather than evaluating current results, especially with limited early season results available, are ranking them similarly to in past years.

I think it's more people looking at results rather than opponents. For example I had Bemidji as high as just about everyone a week or two ago and they don't have very much historical success at all.

It's a neat little case study, really.