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Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

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Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

Wendy Rosen, the Democratic challenger to Republican Rep. Andy Harris in the 1st Congressional District [Maryland], withdrew from the race Monday amid allegations that she voted in elections in both Maryland and Florida in 2006 and 2008
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http://articles.baltimoresun.com/20...ral-election-voter-fraud-vote-on-local-issues




According to Kepler (wish I could find his original post! "voter fraud is a myth"), this makes Ms Rosen a mythological character....;) and according to Unofan (again, wish I could find his original post! "I've seen no evidence that voter fraud even exists"), Ms Rosen doesn't even exist!
 
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Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

This is a completely different electorate from the Tea Party wave.

"Looking ahead for the next few years, which political party do you think will do a better job of protecting the country from international terrorism and military threats: the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?"

Sept 2010: GOP +13
Sept 2011: GOP +11
Sept 2012: even

"Looking ahead for the next few years, which political party do you think will do a better job of keeping the country prosperous: the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?"

Sept 2010: GOP +8
Sept 2011: GOP +9
Sept 2012: Dem +9
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

ericredaxe said:
The VA EV is now back to Obama.
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The last set of NBC-WSJ-Marist polls were off the charts:

VA Obama +5
OH Obama +7
FL Obama +5

Romney better pray (to whomever) that those are bounce numbers.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

Two new polls came out this weekend putting Warren ahead (by +6 and +2).

While I in no way am declaring victory here, I will bring up how I think some people have been too hard on Warren's campaign strategy. All she need do to win (and remember, a +1 vote win counts the same as a +1,000,000 vote margin) is make sure Democrats come home lower down the ticket after they vote for Obama. What I think you're seeing now is the effect of that happening post DNC gathering. Not that she gave some great speech, because she didn't, but I'm guessing she's getting some residual gain from the Clinton effect on her poll numbers, since he made a compelling case for Democrats to vote Democratic. Right now she needs to continue to bring up instances of Brown going Itch McConnell on us (Blunt Amendment for example) and hold her own in the debates.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

BassAle said:
relying on septic systems places a limit on population density and restricts the growth of your town (hard to call someplace without city sewer a city!).
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My city isn't supposed to have a high density. We have a city ordinance that no new house can built on a lot smaller than 2 acres. The whole point of living in my area is to avoid high population densities.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

bigblue_dl said:
My city isn't supposed to have a high density. We have a city ordinance that no new house can built on a lot smaller than 2 acres. The whole point of living in my area is to avoid high population densities.
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Enjoy that $6 gas! :)
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

Rover said:
Two new polls came out this weekend putting Warren ahead (by +6 and +2).

While I in no way am declaring victory here, I will bring up how I think some people have been too hard on Warren's campaign strategy. All she need do to win (and remember, a +1 vote win counts the same as a +1,000,000 vote margin) is make sure Democrats come home lower down the ticket after they vote for Obama. What I think you're seeing now is the effect of that happening post DNC gathering. Not that she gave some great speech, because she didn't, but I'm guessing she's getting some residual gain from the Clinton effect on her poll numbers, since he made a compelling case for Democrats to vote Democratic. Right now she needs to continue to bring up instances of Brown going Itch McConnell on us (Blunt Amendment for example) and hold her own in the debates.
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We've also been seeing a crystallization of support across the board for X challengers in X-majority regions where Y somehow snuck into incumbency. It's all part of the polarization of US politics.

In 1990 27% of the electorate cast split-ticket ballots. By 2000 it was 7%.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

Kepler said:
We've also been seeing a crystallization of support across the board for X challengers in X-majority regions where Y somehow snuck into incumbency. It's all part of the polarization of US politics.

In 1990 27% of the electorate cast split-ticket ballots. By 2000 it was 7%.
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That can't be right. Can it? 7%? I've never voted a straight ticket in my life, but I didn't think I was very unusual.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

geezer said:
That can't be right. Can it? 7%? I've never voted a straight ticket in my life, but I didn't think I was very unusual.
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I have a hard time voting for Republicans cause they all lock step with the party on things I absolutely do not agree with. If you know any nuanced Republicans that are left please let me know.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

I can see ticket splitting becoming a smaller and smaller phenomenon, which makes the Senate races this year all the more interesting (I'm not going to bother with House predictions until October).

So, the way I see it of the so-called "toss up" races or contested races maybe is a better definition, I would think WI, FL, VA, and OH will move with whoever wins the state on the Presidential level. That leaves:

States were incumbent's party will get crushed in Presidential race: MT, MO, MA.

States where challenger's party will get crushed in Presidential race: ND

States with a weird - a ss race going on: ME

Off the board: NE

The Other one: NV

So, a Romney victory almost certainly results in a GOP Senate to the tune of maybe 53 seats at worse (WI, VA, MO, ND, FL, MT, NE, while maybe giving one back - MA or ME).

But, an Obama victory makes things more interesting. Putting Maine aside for a minute, who's winner is a foregone conclusion but who could end up caucusing with whoever wins. GOP needs a net 4 seats for 51, they have NE in the bag but will lose ME as King can't be counted on to side with them. So they still need 4 seats....

To me, MT and MA are in the same boat. Two popular first term incumbents running against the tide against well known and well funded challengers. In the event of an O victory, I can see these trading off.

So what's next. ND and MO. Two Dem seats now leaning Republican. I think ND Dem has run great race so far but getting to 50% is a lot to ask. Stays GOP IMHO. MO is real interesting. McCaskill is showing off political savvy usually unseen out of a Democratic candidate in a tough race. She's lying low and running positive ads until Sept 25th, which is the day Akin is permanently on the ballot. Then with her $$$ advantage she can unleash holy hell on him for the legitimate rape comments. Her strategy is different than Scott Browns in that while he's looking for Obama/Brown votes, she's not looking for Romney/McCaskill ones. She's looking for Romney voters to not vote in the Senate contest out of disgust for a total idiot nominee. That's a bit more achievable to me, but Akin could very well represent how Missouri voters feel. Still leans GOP for now.

So now I'm at 51-49. If the GOP can pick off one more seat (say WI) and not lose NV, perhaps they can offer up some goodies for King to go their way. Of course I didn't include CT here but I just can't take Linda McMahon seriously. Same thing happened last time as she spent a bunch of money to pull even then when people started to pay attention her support cratered.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

Rover said:
I can see ticket splitting becoming a smaller and smaller phenomenon, which makes the Senate races this year all the more interesting (I'm not going to bother with House predictions until October).

So, the way I see it of the so-called "toss up" races or contested races maybe is a better definition, I would think WI, FL, VA, and OH will move with whoever wins the state on the Presidential level. That leaves:

States were incumbent's party will get crushed in Presidential race: MT, MO, MA.

States where challenger's party will get crushed in Presidential race: ND

States with a weird - a ss race going on: ME

Off the board: NE

The Other one: NV

So, a Romney victory almost certainly results in a GOP Senate to the tune of maybe 53 seats at worse (WI, VA, MO, ND, FL, MT, NE, while maybe giving one back - MA or ME).

But, an Obama victory makes things more interesting. Putting Maine aside for a minute, who's winner is a foregone conclusion but who could end up caucusing with whoever wins. GOP needs a net 4 seats for 51, they have NE in the bag but will lose ME as King can't be counted on to side with them. So they still need 4 seats....

To me, MT and MA are in the same boat. Two popular first term incumbents running against the tide against well known and well funded challengers. In the event of an O victory, I can see these trading off.

So what's next. ND and MO. Two Dem seats now leaning Republican. I think ND Dem has run great race so far but getting to 50% is a lot to ask. Stays GOP IMHO. MO is real interesting. McCaskill is showing off political savvy usually unseen out of a Democratic candidate in a tough race. She's lying low and running positive ads until Sept 25th, which is the day Akin is permanently on the ballot. Then with her $$$ advantage she can unleash holy hell on him for the legitimate rape comments. Her strategy is different than Scott Browns in that while he's looking for Obama/Brown votes, she's not looking for Romney/McCaskill ones. She's looking for Romney voters to not vote in the Senate contest out of disgust for a total idiot nominee. That's a bit more achievable to me, but Akin could very well represent how Missouri voters feel. Still leans GOP for now.

So now I'm at 51-49. If the GOP can pick off one more seat (say WI) and not lose NV, perhaps they can offer up some goodies for King to go their way. Of course I didn't include CT here but I just can't take Linda McMahon seriously. Same thing happened last time as she spent a bunch of money to pull even then when people started to pay attention her support cratered.
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Not like it matters anyway, since the messiah dictator, just like many Presidents before him, will just issue executive orders.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

ScoobyDoo said:
I have a hard time voting for Republicans cause they all lock step with the party on things I absolutely do not agree with. If you know any nuanced Republicans that are left please let me know.
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There are plenty in state and local races. Maybe not at the Federal level right now. In local races there are three Republicans I've known for 20-30 years, that I like and respect and will vote for.
 
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