D1 Final eight

[OnMAA]

OK so the D3 crowd is already buzzing about their Final four.

With 2010 upon us, time to start thinking about a potential final 8 lineup in D1.

Here is what I see.

3 teams from WCHA...Minny, UMD and Wisco.....No rocket science there
2 teams from ECAC....Clarkson and Cornell......IMHO Cornell will win ECAC
1 team from HE.........UNH....That is almost a gimme
Mercyhurst from the CHA

That leaves one spot. IMHO it will most likely go to a second HE team. If UNH does not win HE, it would be the winner of HE, otherwise it could be a contest between NU from HE or Syracuse from the CHA.

Off course there are other contenders to consider, like Harvard from the ECAC.

Let the debate begin.

 

[Bergey1]

Re: D1 Final eight

Personally I think Harvard gets in before Northeastern. I still think the only way my Huskies get in is by winning HEA. So I think if UNH wins HEA, then that last spot would go to Harvard or the #2 team from ECAC, however that shakes out.

 

[Hux]

Re: D1 Final eight

Personally I think Harvard gets in before Northeastern. I still think the only way my Huskies get in is by winning HEA. So I think if UNH wins HEA, then that last spot would go to Harvard or the #2 team from ECAC, however that shakes out.

It will come down to winning the games that need to be won and staying in the top eight, which the Huskies are capable of doing. A win against UNH next week would be a big boost, though a loss shouldn't kill them.

 

[ARM]

Re: D1 Final eight

... USCHO distributes the Pairwise Rankings to its voters, and Providence is just 16th there. The rankings don't appear to be working on the site yet, but here they are now.

Rank Team Comparisons Won
1 Mercyhurst 15
2 Minnesota 14
3 New Hampshire 12
4 Wisconsin 12
5 Clarkson 11
6 Harvard 10
7 Minnesota-Duluth 10
8 Connecticut 8

As this shows, if the season ended today and there were no autobids, Harvard and UConn would both be in, Cornell and Northeastern would be out.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: D1 Final eight

Rank Team Comparisons Won
1 Mercyhurst 15
2 Minnesota 14
3 New Hampshire 12
4 Wisconsin 12
5 Clarkson 11
6 Harvard 10
7 Minnesota-Duluth 10
8 Connecticut 8

As this shows, if the season ended today and there were no autobids, Harvard and UConn would both be in, Cornell and Northeastern would be out.

My list was based on projections and what I've heard and seen, not just on the current top 8. Cornell for example just came from a bad weekend while missing many key players. If they are healthy, expect them to be top two in ECAC, which would put them right in this mix. Harvard has been, umm inconsistent. They are only 6-4 in the ECAC, with losses to Cornell, Clarkson, Quinnipiac and Princeton. Having said that, with Kessler in nets, they are a threat to win every game. So it may very well be that that extra spot goes to an ECAC team, but Harvard will have to start winning the big ECAC games to get there.

Lots can change right until the last weeks. IIRC Harvard lost out on a spot near the end last year when they lost in the ECAC playoffs.

 

[ARM]

Re: D1 Final eight

My list was based on projections and what I've heard and seen, not just on the current top 8. Cornell for example just came from a bad weekend while missing many key players. If they are healthy, expect them to be top two in ECAC, which would put them right in this mix.

In terms of the NCAA tourney, Cornell is not in great shape right now. They are sitting 14th in both the PWR and RPI. There's still plenty of time to improve, but most of their tougher games are on the road (Harvard, Dartmouth, Clarkson, SLU.) Before Providence, Cornell had only played 4 road games. If they lose more than three or so from here on, they might then need to win the ECAC tournament to advance. Bad luck for them to play 3 games while their players were absent, because the computer is blind to that. The humans on the selection committee may be more forgiving, but they'd have to at least put themselves right there in the discussion.

 

[fanfirst]

Re: D1 Final eight

Rank Team Comparisons Won
1 Mercyhurst 15
2 Minnesota 14
3 New Hampshire 12
4 Wisconsin 12
5 Clarkson 11
6 Harvard 10
7 Minnesota-Duluth 10
8 Connecticut 8

As this shows, if the season ended today and there were no autobids, Harvard and UConn would both be in, Cornell and Northeastern would be out.

ARM - Can you explain what this means? What comparisons?

Thanks

 

[ARM]

Re: D1 Final eight

ARM - Can you explain what this means? What comparisons?

The basics of the Pairwise Rankings or PWR are explained here. It will perhaps make more sense within the next couple of weeks when USCHO starts to display the table of the rankings and the detail behind the individual comparisons.

 

[dave1381]

Re: D1 Final eight

I'm not quite sure how one can claim that Cornell has been some pattern of consistency while Harvard has been inconsistent. Sure, Cornell has done better in ECAC play, but fact of the matter is, both teams struggled this past weekend while missing talent, both have some other warts, and Harvard is in a much better position for NCAAs despite their deficit to Cornell in the ECAC standings. And other than Mercyhurst and Minnesota, and to some extent UNH and Clarkson, no one this season can be really be described as consistent.

And yes, sure, Harvard has to do better in ECAC play going forward to make NCAAs. Basically, what you're doing is projecting Cornell's 7-1-2 ECAC mark going forward, then Harvard's 6-4-1 mark going forward -- while ignoring that Harvard has been outstanding so far in nonconference play (W & T against Minnesota, W against No. 8 UConn, T against No. 3 UNH), while Cornell has not (loss to Niagara, two losses against Mercyhurst) and that's not even counting the 3 losses last week.

And if you had to pick the most important games for Harvard going forward, due to potential head-to-head tiebreakers, certainly one is the next game against Cornell. But even more important might be a potential Beanpot final against Northeastern or BU -- so it's not simply about winning league games. The Harvard-BC Beanpot games have been HUGELY important for NCAA seedings/selections over the last 4 years or so (the year Harvard only had 1 loss being the 1 exception -- and in 05-06, Harvard needed to win the ECAC because BC won the Beanpot, which Harvard did).

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: D1 Final eight

Rank Team Comparisons Won
1 Mercyhurst 15
2 Minnesota 14
3 New Hampshire 12
4 Wisconsin 12
5 Clarkson 11
6 Harvard 10
7 Minnesota-Duluth 10
8 Connecticut 8

Connecticut is EIGHTH?! Holy smokes.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: D1 Final eight

I'm not quite sure how one can claim that Cornell has been some pattern of consistency while Harvard has been inconsistent. Sure, Cornell has done better in ECAC play, but fact of the matter is, both teams struggled this past weekend while missing talent, both have some other warts, and Harvard is in a much better position for NCAAs despite their deficit to Cornell in the ECAC standings. And other than Mercyhurst and Minnesota, and to some extent UNH and Clarkson, no one this season can be really be described as consistent.

And yes, sure, Harvard has to do better in ECAC play going forward to make NCAAs. Basically, what you're doing is projecting Cornell's 7-1-2 ECAC mark going forward, then Harvard's 6-4-1 mark going forward -- while ignoring that Harvard has been outstanding so far in nonconference play (W & T against Minnesota, W against No. 8 UConn, T against No. 3 UNH), while Cornell has not (loss to Niagara, two losses against Mercyhurst) and that's not even counting the 3 losses last week.

And if you had to pick the most important games for Harvard going forward, due to potential head-to-head tiebreakers, certainly one is the next game against Cornell. But even more important might be a potential Beanpot final against Northeastern or BU -- so it's not simply about winning league games. The Harvard-BC Beanpot games have been HUGELY important for NCAA seedings/selections over the last 4 years or so (the year Harvard only had 1 loss being the 1 exception -- and in 05-06, Harvard needed to win the ECAC because BC won the Beanpot, which Harvard did).

All very valid points. Agree that Cornell has not been consistent either, never said they had been. My inconsistent quote was about Harvard. Having said that, I don't see Cornell's losses against Mercyhurst as a big blemish. Mercyhurst is number one and Cornell faced them when the Ivies were just coming out of the gate.

My point was more based on my opinion that Cornell might just win the ECAC autobid. Most on here will agree that at this point that crown looks to be a fierce threeway battle between Clarkson, Cornell and Harvard, with Quinnipiac a serious dark horse threath. Hopefully all teams can stay healthy down the stretch, so may the best team win.

BTW...Love the discussion, as it is informational. Clearly both you and ARM understand all the rules around who goes and who doesn't much better than yours truly.

 

[ARM]

Re: D1 Final eight

My point was more based on my opinion that Cornell might just win the ECAC autobid. Most on here will agree that at this point that crown looks to be a fierce threeway battle between Clarkson, Cornell and Harvard, with Quinnipiac a serious dark horse threat.

I'd say at this point it is even more wide open than that. Because there isn't one or two invincible teams sitting atop the conference, all it takes is for a team to make the 8-team tourney and get hot for a couple of weeks. SLU, for example, has gone on the road and beaten Cornell; now they play most of their tougher conference games at home and get a chance to improve their position and gain some momentum for the postseason.

 

[LakersFan]

Re: D1 Final eight

Cornell has little chance of receiving an at-large bid, IMO. Check out my season long ratng graph (http://math.bd.psu.edu/faculty/rutter/D1_history/season_history.html). Click on the Cornell button and you can see they have been slowly falling since they peaked at number three earlier in the season.

Mercyhurst and Minnesota are locks. No evidence that UNH will not make the tournament either. Clarkson and Harvard are more than likely in if they only lose to each other in conference play (Clarkson winning at Mercyhurst will help, losses will not likely cost them much). Same can be said for UMD and Wisconsin.

Assuming that no upsets occur in conference, the eight seed could come from any of the teams under consideration that gets on a roll between now and the end of the season. UConn seems to be that team right now, as they have been slowly rising in my rankings.

 

[dave1381]

Re: D1 Final eight

All very valid points. Agree that Cornell has not been consistent either, never said they had been. My inconsistent quote was about Harvard. Having said that, I don't see Cornell's losses against Mercyhurst as a big blemish. Mercyhurst is number one and Cornell faced them when the Ivies were just coming out of the gate.

Agreed it's not a big blemish. Point was in comparing Harvard vs. Cornell, Minnesota and Mercyhurst are comparable teams, and given the opportunity Harvard took 3 from Minnesota while Cornell was swept by Mercyhurst. But fair point that it was first weekend of the season for Cornell, so you don't give Harvard too much relative credit for that.

My point was more based on my opinion that Cornell might just win the ECAC autobid. Most on here will agree that at this point that crown looks to be a fierce threeway battle between Clarkson, Cornell and Harvard, with Quinnipiac a serious dark horse threath. Hopefully all teams can stay healthy down the stretch, so may the best team win.

It may be true that Cornell matches up better with ECAC teams than Harvard does, and Cornell should be favored in that respect. Cornell also has a decent shot at the No. 1 seed in the tourney and an easier path to the final.

I agree with the ARM that the ECAC is probably the conference with the best shot at having a non-top 8 team make the tourney on the basis of the autobid. There's a decent chance the ECAC gets 3 in, with Harvard and Clarkson getting at-large plus some dark horse autobid -- though that assumes UNH wins Hockey East. Otherwise Harvard or UMD at this point look to be in danger of getting squeezed out if there are two dark horse autobid winners. Of course still a lot of hockey left to be played, and Harvard and UMD could be way up or way down by the time the conference tourneys start.

 

[ARM]

Re: D1 Final eight

Of course still a lot of hockey left to be played, and Harvard and UMD could be way up or way down by the time the conference tourneys start.

UMD has some factors in their favor to move upward. They play both Wisconsin and Minnesota at home in the second half. They have to go to Bemidji, but at a time when I presume Tomcikova will be gone. Even though the 'Dogs will be w/o Touminen and Posa, the Beavers aren't the same minus Zuzana. And getting Larocque back will solidify their blue line. Usually when a team adds a player at the break, that player has just become eligible and has some rust. Obviously, that's not the case here.

 

[RStarr]

Re: D1 Final eight

Im just not convinced that Cornell or Clarkson will win the ECAC championship because both lack playoff experience in consideration to some of the other teams. I wouldnt be surprised to see SLU do well...as well as Harvard and even Dartmouth. If Clarkson wins regular season, but not the championship, will they still get to go?

 

[ARM]

Re: D1 Final eight

If Clarkson wins regular season, but not the championship, will they still get to go?

Winning a regular season title has no benefit as far as qualifying for the NCAA tourney, other than the wins gained along the way.

 

[RStarr]

Re: D1 Final eight

Winning a regular season title has no benefit as far as qualifying for the NCAA tourney, other than the wins gained along the way.

yeah. bad wording. what im getting at is that the winner of the confrence tourney will get an auto bid. assuming that isnt clarkson, will clarkson still make it. depends on the rest of the season.

 

[dave1381]

Re: D1 Final eight

Clarkson's certainly on pace to make the tourney, regardless of winning ECACs. They're solidly No. 5 in the PWR right now, ahead of the next-best Harvard.

Still a lot left to played -- if Clarkson were to finish the rest of season at .500 (not unreasonable considering ECAC parity and two games against Mercyhurst), I think they'd still be in the running for the NCAA bid. Doing a bit better than that, they're probably an NCAA lock. Of course depends a lot on what the competition does, and the 6th+ teams (Harvard, UMD, and beyond) have some pretty big warts.

Bottom line, it'd take a pretty big collapse (on par with last season) for Clarkson not to make the 8.

 

[BozIce99]

Re: D1 Final eight

Clarkson's certainly on pace to make the tourney, regardless of winning ECACs. They're solidly No. 5 in the PWR right now, ahead of the next-best Harvard.

Still a lot left to played -- if Clarkson were to finish the rest of season at .500 (not unreasonable considering ECAC parity and two games against Mercyhurst), I think they'd still be in the running for the NCAA bid.

Wouldn't 2 points this weekend be their golden ticket...for the Golden Knights! I imagine in a backdoor kind of way, that would also benefit Harvard as well.