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Covfefe-19 The 12th Part: The Only Thing Worse Than This New Board Is TrumpVirus2020

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Tell him that if Dump dies then he will have done America a great service by his example of someone who railed against masks and then paid the price.

He can still be a hero. Just one last thing to do.
 
leswp1 said:
Someone on FB posed a question asking if t'Dump said wear a mask doesn't he get credit for starting to encourage it, even if he is late to the parade? alphablue's post is why the answer is no. He has created bias based on truly ridiculous narrative but people aren't going to give it up. They will just create conspiracy theories of why he said it without believing the science of it.
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I give him credit for changing his mind...but that is it. He so poisoned the well his people will just assume he is bowing to political pressure and wont believe what he says anyways.
 
He has not changed his mind. he is just saying and doing whatever he needs to do to get re-elected. he can see the writing on the wall, he can see the polls that show an overwhelming number of Americans are in favor of wearing them. No sense in him continuing to dig that hole deeper.

he's got other holes he can still dig in.
 
alfablue said:
To actually get herd immunity, over half the population HAS to get infected. The infected population has to be so high that the virus has no other locations to spread to. And for half the population to get infected, a 1% rate of death (which I think is low, because of the lack of hospital space) is over 1,500,000 Americans dead. How in the world can people be so callous that killing 1.5M American's is ok? And I do mean killing, as we STILL CAN PREVENT spread. Masks, distancing, all of that- clearly shows that it works when it's let to.
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You don’t need 50% of the population to get it for it to burnout or herd immunity.

Current studies are showing that Covid19 is burning out when around 10-20% having had it.

Fortunately it is looking like there is cross immunity with other viruses. So we can thank all those healthy Selfish jack bags who’s Tcells crush the virus when they come in contact with it.

And your rate of death is ridiculously high. It is probably around .26%. And when it is all said and done could very will be much lower.
 
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leswp1 said:
There you go trying to use logic and reason. That is silly.
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speaking of logic and reason...

”“Next time someone says,

“What’s so hard about wearing a mask??? Jeez...”

Reply with, “Ok. When can we stop?”

The ensuing answer will be an ad hoc justification with no substance...but perhaps you’ll make them think about the implications a little more.”“

https://mobile.twitter.com/elevenhilbert/status/1287069583309000704

So when do we get to be done with the face diapers? What is the measure?
 
Oh look, Mr. "I do numbers better than Excel can" suddenly has a PhD in Epidemiology and is coming in here to drop "truth" bombs on us.

tenor.gif
 
aparch said:
Oh look, Mr. "I do numbers better than Excel can" suddenly has a PhD in Epidemiology and is coming in here to drop "truth" bombs on us.

tenor.gif
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To think you took the time to respond. And that is what you go with.

Great stuff.
 
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French Rage said:
Oh cmon, it's not like doctors and nurses wear them through nine hour surgeries and survive! Granted, they're not complete ******* like Jeb.
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I keep saying we all must have all been born uber genius to manage to wear them this many times, get hypoxia and brain damage and still know how to wipe our bottoms by the age of 30.
 
Jeb2020 said:
You don’t need 50% of the population to get it for it to burnout or herd immunity.

Current studies are showing that Covid19 is burning out when around 10-20% having had it.

Fortunately it is looking like there is cross immunity with other viruses. So we can thank all those healthy Selfish jack bags who’s Tcells crush the virus when they come in contact with it.

And your rate of death is ridiculously high. It is probably around .26%. And when it is all said and done could very will be much lower.
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Sorry again everyone. Jeb, in my last post I addressed a number of points to you, as well as provided some statistical observations regarding potential deaths based on your previous posts claiming we don't apply IFR to an entire population. Again, the vast majority of experts say the IFR will be close to 1 - 1.5%. Funny, after posting at least four more times since my last post, you have yet to respond to any of the specific points I made. For your convenience, I will re-post my previous post so you can easily review it. However, before I do so, I need to address your absolute stupidity regarding your herd immunity comments above.

First link is from the Mayo Clinic: https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-...s/art-20486808

Key paragraph... "Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions."


Next link from Johns Hopkins: https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/artic...h-covid19.html

Key parargraph.... What is herd immunity?

When most of a population is immune to an infectious disease, this provides indirect protection—or herd immunity (also called herd protection)—to those who are not immune to the disease.

For example, if 80% of a population is immune to a virus, four out of every five people who encounter someone with the disease won’t get sick (and won’t spread the disease any further). In this way, the spread of infectious diseases is kept under control. Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 70% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity.

So Jeb, this is the Mayo Clinic and Johns Hopkins, the two most respected medical centers in our country and, probably the world. Both stating that at least 70% of the population must be exposed to the virus -- thru infection or via vaccine -- to achieve herd immunity. NOT the 10 -20% that your supposed "current studies" are showing. Funny, it's interesting to see that you failed to provide a link to a single study or article from a reputable source to support your claim regarding herd immunity. Below is my previous post you failed to address at all so far.


My apologies to those of you who have Jeb on ignore but, I'm asking the rest of you to chime in on this response as this specific debate point is pretty important. Although I'm pretty darn sure I'm thinking this right, my math skills aren't my strong point. So, first to Jeb; finding a truly accurate, peer-reviewed, scientific study that provides any clarity regarding the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) is very difficult at this time. Both because of the under-counting of Covid deaths, as well as the incredibly difficult task of determining an accurate number of total infections. The following is an article from Nature Magazine. I ask all of you -- but especially Jeb -- to read it. It's not too long so shouldn't take you any longer to read it than it would to read some of my posts. ;)

Here's the link: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2

Jeb, my rationale for caring about the IFR, especially as it relates to engaging in debating you about the significance of the risk of this virus -- whether it's wearing masks, or keeping things locked down for longer, or how lethal it is to those below the age of 65 -- is whether or not we are risking significant preventable death if we follow the "open it up" crowd versus following the cautious/conservative approach. Ideally, in order to accurately estimate the amount of potential preventable death, we would need as accurate an IFR as possible. And obviously, you would then make an estimate of preventable deaths by applying the IFR to the estimated number of potential people infected.

However, because of the uncertainty in the accurate number of both deaths and total infections, many people are using the Case Fatality Rate -- percentage of deaths of confirmed cases -- in assessing the severity of the disease. The CFR as of yesterday -- according to John's Hopkins -- is 3.6%, which is the 11th highest in the world. I think all of us acknowledge the likelihood that the IFR will end up being significantly lower than the CFR. Still, let's say the IFR ends up being around 1 to 1.5%. The current estimates of potential infection in the U.S. prior to a vaccine is between 30 & 40%. Forty percent of the U.S. population of 330,000,000 is 132,000,000. So, if 1.5% of those die from Covid, that's 1,980,000 deaths. Repeat...that's 1,980,000 deaths...

1.5% is too high you say?.... OK, let's use 1%. That's 1,320,000 deaths.... Still too high of an IFR percentage? OK, let's use .75%. That's still 990,000 deaths. The worst CDC estimate of seasonal flu deaths occurred for the 2017-18 flu season in which the CDC estimated that between 40,000 and 60,000 people died from flu. What happens if the vaccines don't arrive as early as promised and 50% of the population gets infected by the actual virus? That's a total of 165,000,000 people infected. At 1.5% IFR, that's 2,475,000 deaths... At 1% IFR that's obviously 1,650,000 deaths... At .75% IFR, that's still 1,237,500 deaths...

If my math is accurate, those are some seriously eye-opening totals. If my math is off, I'm sure all of you will correct me. Still, in all seriousness Jeb, is keeping things wide open to save the economy -- especially when we could do things to keep it in functional shape even in lock down mode -- or, not wear a mask indoors in public settings, worth between 990,000 and 1,980,000 preventable deaths? Please explain how you justify those numbers of potential deaths if we can't get things under control.

One last thing. In the previous thread, I remember Jeb providing statistics for Texas and a couple other states comparing deaths of people under 65 to deaths from flu for the same age comparison, as well as an attempt to still compare annual flu deaths to Covid deaths. Especially after some convoluted attempt to justify an actual Covid total down due to his conspiracy theory regarding Covid deaths being somehow over-counted and using one story of an accident death somehow being counted as a Covid death to illustrate said theory. The following is an interesting article from the Scientific American Magazine from April 28th of 2020 which analyzes the method by which the CDC estimates annual flu deaths. And, that the CDC's number of flu deaths is likely grossly over-estimated. Here's the link:

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...es-to-oranges/

Here's a couple paragraphs from early in the article to wet your appetite:

When reports about the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 began circulating earlier this year and questions were being raised about how the illness it causes, COVID-19, compared to the flu, it occurred to me that, in four years of emergency medicine residency and over three and a half years as an attending physician, I had almost never seen anyone die of the flu. I could only remember one tragic pediatric case.

Based on the CDC numbers though, I should have seen many, many more. In 2018, over 46,000 Americans died from opioid overdoses. Over 36,500 died in traffic accidents. Nearly 40,000 died from gun violence. I see those deaths all the time. Was I alone in noticing this discrepancy?

So to Jeb, if my math is accurate, I suggest you come up with a different line of arguing that this virus isn't that big of a deal.
 
Handyman said:
No offense...but your apology is bull[bleep]. If your ego needs to fight him fine but don't pretend like it is some unintentional act. Its disingenuous and well rather insulting.
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Easy Handy...my apology wasn't intended to indicate me quoting him was unintentional. Not in the least. More of a passive-aggressive Minnesota kind of gesture. Regardless, whether it's Jeb or Chuck (Murray), I've tried to limit actually quoting them in an attempt to honor the requests of yourself and others to not do so. And, I rarely do use the "quote" feature with Jeb. Still, I do find it odd that you allow the fact I and others occasionally do quote Jeb to be such a triggering thing for you. As you're obviously well aware, this is a "forum" where discussion, debate, and disagreement is kind of actually encouraged. Don't get me wrong, I understand why you and others choose to "ignore" him. But trust me, "fighting him" is not an ego thing. Not one bit. I just enjoy the back and forth. Although admittedly, he generally doesn't respond when you put him in a corner from a "facts" standpoint. Heck, even Kep has acknowledged recently that it's not his place to demand others stop quoting people he has on ignore. ;)
 
leswp1 said:
I keep saying we all must have all been born uber genius to manage to wear them this many times, get hypoxia and brain damage and still know how to wipe our bottoms by the age of 30.
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Seems to me that the people who can't breathe through masks must have a pre-existing condition. And based on that being an excuse for it to be ok for them to die, well... jeb- we are waiting.
 
Funny thing about the low population herd immunity claims, as I read them- most of the low requirements have happened when something else went on to mitigate the spread. There was some early look at Sweden, but that was retracted later on. And there was a theory for the ships that only 20% got infected suggesting that the A/C system spread it to everyone. But that's not true- as each cabin has their own system, and that it's very much filtered. Ships already have to filter the crap out of the air system because sick people constantly board cruises. So ships have to have good systems.

The same articles show that prisons get 60% antibody positive before it slows down- as expected.

So IF we do something, then 20% looks like a possible target. If we do a lot, it can be a lot less than that. If we do a WHOLE lot, then it can be almost nothing. Well, did. But claiming 20% by doing nothing is not what is being published.

Apparently reading comprehension goes along with the normal breathing problems that the deniers have a a pre-existing condition.
 
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