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Covfefe-19 The 12th Part: The Only Thing Worse Than This New Board Is TrumpVirus2020

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rufus said:
There net, you feel better?

If you're gonna respond to the troll like that, at least learn how to use the quote function. And if you say you don't want to quote the troll, what's the difference between just cutting and pasting everything he said?

Again, just don't. Put him on ignore. You, and we, will feel much better. He isn't worth the time.
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I guess my thinking was that I had to actually use the "quote" function for his posts to show up to those who had him on ignore. I guess now that I think about it, if I'm not on ignore and I copy and paste his posts into my post that does kind of defeat putting him on ignore...:o

Hey Kep, thanks for checking on me last night. I have to admit I was a little surprised you responded so quickly. Are you an insomniac or, are you like me and just intentionally stay up that late? I've found myself doing that a lot more lately. Not sure why but, it's really starting to drive my wife crazy...
 
Just my opinion, but I don't think Fauci should've agreed to the pitch throwing stunt. It looked like a silly and unprofessional victory lap when we haven't even touched second base with this virus yet, and none of the leagues should be operating this year anyway.
 
At this point it's just a matter of time before one of them has a major star go down and not be able to get back up... It's just a question of who....
 
leswp1 said:
Nice article on masks from Medscape- medical online journal- https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti...HvIIXbou6YncUY


This whole panic thing is a way to deflect from looking at facts and a lazy way refrain from any logical thinking. It is continuous narrative that has permeated the response to C-19 starting way back in February. Points for consistency in messaging but none for logic.

When I was talking to our financial planner, way back at the beginning of March, I said it is going to be bad and a gong show with disjointed response and the South other red states are going to be overwhelmed and on fire. Talking to him this past week- he says out of the blue- you know what you said about this at the start is all coming true. Validating but deeply sad.

He has dual citizenship. Never planned to return to his home country. Changing his mind. I asked if he could adopt me.
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When you were talking to your planner did you tell him that 40% of the country’s deaths were going to take place in 3 States in the north East? 3 States that make up 10% of the population?

I’m going to go with doubt it.
 
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Jeb2020 said:
IFR infection fertility rate.

Holy Sh*t and you are trying to paint me as the stupid one? First you aren’t quoting me but you are copying and pasting everything? Lmao

You take the IFR and put it against the number of people that have had a disease not against the entire population. It was laid out right in the post. Jeeze man

simple example if a population was 1000 people, 100 people got the disease and the IFR rate was 1%.

The expected deaths would be at .01 x 100 (those with the disease). So one death for every 100 people that get sick.

Not 1% of the entire population dying.
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My apologies to those of you who have Jeb on ignore but, I'm asking the rest of you to chime in on this response as this specific debate point is pretty important. Although I'm pretty darn sure I'm thinking this right, my math skills aren't my strong point. So, first to Jeb; finding a truly accurate, peer-reviewed, scientific study that provides any clarity regarding the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) is very difficult at this time. Both because of the under-counting of Covid deaths, as well as the incredibly difficult task of determining an accurate number of total infections. The following is an article from Nature Magazine. I ask all of you -- but especially Jeb -- to read it. It's not too long so shouldn't take you any longer to read it than it would to read some of my posts. ;)

Here's the link: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2

Jeb, my rationale for caring about the IFR, especially as it relates to engaging in debating you about the significance of the risk of this virus -- whether it's wearing masks, or keeping things locked down for longer, or how lethal it is to those below the age of 65 -- is whether or not we are risking significant preventable death if we follow the "open it up" crowd versus following the cautious/conservative approach. Ideally, in order to accurately estimate the amount of potential preventable death, we would need as accurate an IFR as possible. And obviously, you would then make an estimate of preventable deaths by applying the IFR to the estimated number of potential people infected.

However, because of the uncertainty in the accurate number of both deaths and total infections, many people are using the Case Fatality Rate -- percentage of deaths of confirmed cases -- in assessing the severity of the disease. The CFR as of yesterday -- according to John's Hopkins -- is 3.6%, which is the 11th highest in the world. I think all of us acknowledge the likelihood that the IFR will end up being significantly lower than the CFR. Still, let's say the IFR ends up being around 1 to 1.5%. The current estimates of potential infection in the U.S. prior to a vaccine is between 30 & 40%. Forty percent of the U.S. population of 330,000,000 is 132,000,000. So, if 1.5% of those die from Covid, that's 1,980,000 deaths. Repeat...that's 1,980,000 deaths...

1.5% is too high you say?.... OK, let's use 1%. That's 1,320,000 deaths.... Still too high of an IFR percentage? OK, let's use .75%. That's still 990,000 deaths. The worst CDC estimate of seasonal flu deaths occurred for the 2017-18 flu season in which the CDC estimated that between 40,000 and 60,000 people died from flu. What happens if the vaccines don't arrive as early as promised and 50% of the population gets infected by the actual virus? That's a total of 165,000,000 people infected. At 1.5% IFR, that's 2,475,000 deaths... At 1% IFR that's obviously 1,650,000 deaths... At .75% IFR, that's still 1,237,500 deaths...

If my math is accurate, those are some seriously eye-opening totals. If my math is off, I'm sure all of you will correct me. Still, in all seriousness Jeb, is keeping things wide open to save the economy -- especially when we could do things to keep it in functional shape even in lock down mode -- or, not wear a mask indoors in public settings, worth between 990,000 and 1,980,000 preventable deaths? Please explain how you justify those numbers of potential deaths if we can't get things under control.

One last thing. In the previous thread, I remember Jeb providing statistics for Texas and a couple other states comparing deaths of people under 65 to deaths from flu for the same age comparison, as well as an attempt to still compare annual flu deaths to Covid deaths. Especially after some convoluted attempt to justify an actual Covid total down due to his conspiracy theory regarding Covid deaths being somehow over-counted and using one story of an accident death somehow being counted as a Covid death to illustrate said theory. The following is an interesting article from the Scientific American Magazine from April 28th of 2020 which analyzes the method by which the CDC estimates annual flu deaths. And, that the CDC's number of flu deaths is likely grossly over-estimated. Here's the link:

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...es-to-oranges/

Here's a couple paragraphs from early in the article to wet your appetite:

When reports about the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 began circulating earlier this year and questions were being raised about how the illness it causes, COVID-19, compared to the flu, it occurred to me that, in four years of emergency medicine residency and over three and a half years as an attending physician, I had almost never seen anyone die of the flu. I could only remember one tragic pediatric case.

Based on the CDC numbers though, I should have seen many, many more. In 2018, over 46,000 Americans died from opioid overdoses. Over 36,500 died in traffic accidents. Nearly 40,000 died from gun violence. I see those deaths all the time. Was I alone in noticing this discrepancy?

So to Jeb, if my math is accurate, I suggest you come up with a different line of arguing that this virus isn't that big of a deal.
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Just my opinion, but I don't think Fauci should've agreed to the pitch throwing stunt. It looked like a silly and unprofessional victory lap when we haven't even touched second base with this virus yet, and none of the leagues should be operating this year anyway.
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Not a victory lap. It's choosing Fauci and science over the conservatives and idiocy. It's acknowledging that we're in trouble, and that those who say we're not or that there's nothing we can do are dangerous morons.
 
Sinclair Broadcast group has local television stations in nearly 100 different markets. They own over 100 stations that broadcast under the banner of ABC, CBS, NBC or FOX. This weekend they will broadcast a ridiculous conspiracy piece that "suggests" Dr. Anthony Fauci was responsible for creating the coronavirus. A lot of people watch their local news programs. Many get most of their news from that single source. Sinclair uses their local stations to broadcast a lot of "news" that is really nothing more than trump propaganda. They are actually one of the worst examples out there of the news media being a wing of the trump party. A minority of people in this country are hopelessly evil, or hopelessly stupid. But boy they sure have a negative effect on the rest of us.
 
Florida

https://mobile.twitter.com/jhaskinsc...62721527169030

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...y0jwo/htmlview


[url]https://cbs12.com/news/local/fau-researchers-create-new-covid-19-tracker?_gl=1*1ihnhsy*_ga*bVIzcGl5bW5xVVFITFRMSk1IMDhYWjVSZ3JZcFp1RTBrRjhrVGFTQjJLOFVRUFRqUzRMaTk3MnJzNEhFZjRZSA..[/URL]

“”According to the FAU chart, Florida has never had a day with more than 101 deaths.

"There is a lot of misinformation about deaths in Florida," said Cole. "The [DOH] reports an increase in cumulative deaths, not deaths that took place that day. We are presenting data on the date of death to inform the public. The [rise in death] has been much less dramatic and not “at all in keeping with the skyrocketing number of cases." “
 
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On another board, I had to have to stop posting about the virus, as so many would jump all over me whenever I expressed concern over people dying. But I still read something every once in a while.

Today, someone posted that they just found out that their mom's nursing home has gotten a serious outbreak of covid. He then complained about various items, including the covid parties that have been happening around the Dallas area.

One of the replies was about the idea that the parties are a good idea to force herd immunity.... And then he tried to express some concern about the OP's mom getting so exposed... How is it that people don't realize that one can so quickly lead to the other???? I don't get that.

To actually get herd immunity, over half the population HAS to get infected. The infected population has to be so high that the virus has no other locations to spread to. And for half the population to get infected, a 1% rate of death (which I think is low, because of the lack of hospital space) is over 1,500,000 Americans dead. How in the world can people be so callous that killing 1.5M American's is ok? And I do mean killing, as we STILL CAN PREVENT spread. Masks, distancing, all of that- clearly shows that it works when it's let to.

We spent $1,000,000,000 a day for a war that started off costing us less than 6,000 Americans in terrorist attacks, and we can't do the exact same thing to keep 30x that alive? Seriously?

And most of the people calling for "herd immunity" are the same ones who have "family values"- and all that encompasses- you know, caging kids up for committing a misdemeanor for trying to find a better life here in the US? And putting to death people who may not have done anything? And letting cops kill people without any repercussions- when people were just trying to do either nothing or a minor offense? Indeed, what would Jesus do?

I'm so very tired of people who think this is some kind of joke and that people dying kind of deserved it (pre-existing conditions, overweight- you name it). And that there's nothing we can do about it- in spite of other countries being successfully able to contain it. And that they have zero realization that their views totally sacrifice people in this country. Why can't you just be a leader and sacrifice yourself first??? I'm sure people will follow you.
 
alfablue said:
On another board, I had to have to stop posting about the virus, as so many would jump all over me whenever I expressed concern over people dying. But I still read something every once in a while.

Today, someone posted that they just found out that their mom's nursing home has gotten a serious outbreak of covid. He then complained about various items, including the covid parties that have been happening around the Dallas area.

One of the replies was about the idea that the parties are a good idea to force herd immunity.... And then he tried to express some concern about the OP's mom getting so exposed... How is it that people don't realize that one can so quickly lead to the other???? I don't get that.

To actually get herd immunity, over half the population HAS to get infected. The infected population has to be so high that the virus has no other locations to spread to. And for half the population to get infected, a 1% rate of death (which I think is low, because of the lack of hospital space) is over 1,500,000 Americans dead. How in the world can people be so callous that killing 1.5M American's is ok? And I do mean killing, as we STILL CAN PREVENT spread. Masks, distancing, all of that- clearly shows that it works when it's let to.

We spent $1,000,000,000 a day for a war that started off costing us less than 6,000 Americans in terrorist attacks, and we can't do the exact same thing to keep 30x that alive? Seriously?

And most of the people calling for "herd immunity" are the same ones who have "family values"- and all that encompasses- you know, caging kids up for committing a misdemeanor for trying to find a better life here in the US? And putting to death people who may not have done anything? And letting cops kill people without any repercussions- when people were just trying to do either nothing or a minor offense? Indeed, what would Jesus do?

I'm so very tired of people who think this is some kind of joke and that people dying kind of deserved it (pre-existing conditions, overweight- you name it). And that there's nothing we can do about it- in spite of other countries being successfully able to contain it. And that they have zero realization that their views totally sacrifice people in this country. Why can't you just be a leader and sacrifice yourself first??? I'm sure people will follow you.
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There you go trying to use logic and reason. That is silly.

CDC changed their guidelines again to adjust to what multiple studies have shown. Thankful they are quoting studies that come from other countries. I feel like our numbers are tainted enough that if they didn't have corroboration I would be doubting the veracity. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...isolation.html

I think having Fauci throw the ball out was the ultimate slap to the deniers. He was wearing a mask, they had all sorts of measures in place (not that I agree they will result in avoiding infection- people will do stupid things) and it was a nod that people need to adjust to the current reality. There is a meme going around showing him with his mask off. Of course the idjits will not understand if he is outside only with those who are his usual close contacts.
 
Someone on FB posed a question asking if t'Dump said wear a mask doesn't he get credit for starting to encourage it, even if he is late to the parade? alphablue's post is why the answer is no. He has created bias based on truly ridiculous narrative but people aren't going to give it up. They will just create conspiracy theories of why he said it without believing the science of it.
 
leswp1 said:
CDC changed their guidelines again to adjust to what multiple studies have shown. Thankful they are quoting studies that come from other countries. I feel like our numbers are tainted enough that if they didn't have corroboration I would be doubting the veracity. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...isolation.html
.
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Duh

Accumulating evidence supports ending isolation and precautions for persons with COVID-19 using a symptom-based strategy.This update incorporates recent evidence to inform the duration of isolation and precautions recommended to prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to others, while limiting unnecessary prolonged isolation and unnecessary use of laboratory testing resources.

It’s almost August of this is just being being figured out?

They know this thing is burning out. The will try to say it was because of masks and other arbitrary measures.
 
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