I think what you should really do is spend a little time and go back and read my posts on the subject. I don't post that much, and I've never deleted one, so it'll be easy for you to do.
I don't believe I've ever suggested that it was "fear mongering" or anything of the sort. I also don't think I ever suggested the virus was a hoax or was otherwise skeptical of the virus. I didn't even do what so many of you think I did, come in here and claim there is no way the virus would ever kill 20,000 people in this country.
In mid-March I was having a discussion with some posters about what may or may not be an appropriate response to this virus in terms of shutting down the country. I didn't even take a position on whether the country should be shut down, or to what extent. I simply asked whether there were any number of deaths where we might view the "cure" as being worse than the condition. I indicated that if I knew the deaths were going to be a million or more, obviously we need to take steps to try to minimize that. Then the discussion turned to what if it were 100,000 deaths, or something like that.
At that point, someone, (maybe slapshot?) asked me if I had a guess. I said I thought the number would be less than 20,000 deaths in the country, but in that same post pointed out that it was, a) a guess, and b) an uneducated one at that.
At the time there were something like 40 deaths in the country total, and steps were starting to be taken. I thought, given that it was a respiratory virus, there was some chance that like MERS and SARS, it might be contained before hundred thousand people were killed. It turns out not to be the case, and my guess was wrong.
But if you think I said I was skeptical or we were engaged in fear mongering, by all means, please cite to my post where I said that.
I think what you should really do is spend a little time and go back and read my posts on the subject. I don't post that much, and I've never deleted one, so it'll be easy for you to do.
I don't believe I've ever suggested that it was "fear mongering" or anything of the sort. I also don't think I ever suggested the virus was a hoax or was otherwise skeptical of the virus. I didn't even do what so many of you think I did, come in here and claim there is no way the virus would ever kill 20,000 people in this country.
In mid-March I was having a discussion with some posters about what may or may not be an appropriate response to this virus in terms of shutting down the country. I didn't even take a position on whether the country should be shut down, or to what extent. I simply asked whether there were any number of deaths where we might view the "cure" as being worse than the condition. I indicated that if I knew the deaths were going to be a million or more, obviously we need to take steps to try to minimize that. Then the discussion turned to what if it were 100,000 deaths, or something like that.
At that point, someone, (maybe slapshot?) asked me if I had a guess. I said I thought the number would be less than 20,000 deaths in the country, but in that same post pointed out that it was, a) a guess, and b) an uneducated one at that.
At the time there were something like 40 deaths in the country total, and steps were starting to be taken. I thought, given that it was a respiratory virus, there was some chance that like MERS and SARS, it might be contained before hundred thousand people were killed. It turns out not to be the case, and my guess was wrong.
But if you think I said I was skeptical or we were engaged in fear mongering, by all means, please cite to my post where I said that.
SJHovey 06:12 PM 03-23-2020
Originally Posted by Handyman:
I literally showed you the numbers for 5% so who cares about 20%.
330 million x .05 = 16.5 million
16.5 million x .05 (the critical care rate in China) = 825,000
We dont have that many ventilators most likely in this country let alone that many free ones.
I get you are trying to stay calm but ignoring math is just plain ridiculous. If 9 out of 10 people DONT have it and 9 out of 10 of the ones who do have it DONT need ventilators we are still screwed. If 95 out of hundred dont have it, and 95 out of a hundred out of the ones that do dont need critical care we are still screwed.
The problem is though that nobody’s sister is making a video saying 0.1% will get this or 5% will get it. Instead we have people like your Twitter doctor or the California governor claiming 45% which freaks people out, including many here, when there is no basis for it. It’s like Trump saying we’ll have a vaccine next week. No scientific basis for it and it’s extremely misleading and counter-productive.
I apologize. You said freak out, not fear.
SJHovey 06:38 PM 03-23-2020
Originally Posted by dxmnkd316:
Im curious if you consider the CDC’s potential 160 million to 210 million possible infections to be the same as Dr. Twitter
I think it’s unrealistic.
But that’s the nice thing. I guess we’ll see. I’m sure there will be plenty of people around here to rub it in my face.
The one thing we know is that the US response has been extraordinarily sub-optimal, from what I’ve read here, so I won’t have to listen to people explain away the numbers that way if we’re nowhere near 160 million.
SJHovey 08:45 AM 03-24-2020
Originally Posted by Slap Shot:
Why can't you simply address Handy's "0.1%" simulation instead of fixating on what you think are more unreasonable estimates?
So, two reasons.
First, because everyone keeps throwing out huge, unsubstantiated numbers and then asks people to make basic assumptions about those numbers. Well meaning people, but absurd numbers nonetheless. For example, Governor Walz, who is doing a terrific job throws out a guess that 40 to 80% of Minnesotans will be infected. I'll link to the article. There is literally nothing in the article that gives us any idea as to why we should think that number is realistic or what it's based on. He just threw it out there. Well, there is a huge difference between 40% and 80% of the population, even in Minnesota.
When I question the numbers, then people like Handy just say something like, ok, ignore the 45% figure and let's go with 20% or something like that. We're just making up numbers and then doing calculations about how many ventilators we'll need.
So that's the first problem, everyone just wants to use a big number to show how bad the need is.
The second is this. Handy discussed a very important issue, and that is the question that relates to available healthcare resources. He is absolutely right. If we need 1.5 million ventilators in the next month, we aren't going to have them. Why we have that shortage is for another discussion, but he's right about that.
The healthcare system can only do what it can do. It would be no different than if instead of all dying when the Twin Towers collapsed, the 3000 people were critically injured. The NYC healthcare system would have been overwhelmed and they would have had to engage in triage. Some people are going to die because of lack of available healthcare. That happens every day, and it will happen here.
But more importantly, and what no one on this board is willing to talk about, are the actual numbers.
If I asked you this question, "how many more deaths were there in this country in 2019 as compared with say 2010," what would your answer be?
What if I told you that there were something like 375,000 more deaths here in 2019 than in 2010? Did it feel like it to you? Were we having conversations on this board about where all the people went in this country? No, of course not. Literally no one except demographers even noticed.
So let's assume all 1.5 million of Handy's ventilator patients die (which they shouldn't if half of them have available ventilators). In the big picture is that a human tragedy unknown to man?
60 million people a year die on this planet, year after year after year. This virus has killed 17,000 worldwide in what, three months?
Sounds like skepticism to me, but, I don’t know you, and you say it’s not, so, there you have it.Your pivot to your current argument that we’re not S. Korea or Hong Kong so this was inevitable anyways piqued my curiosity for its complete 180 from what I’ve posted.
