College Football 19-20: Where We Kinda Want Clemson As Champion.

[jerphisch]

Good to see that you still take nothing into consideration but your (or their) own well being.

 

[dxmnkd316]

especially in an era where 40% of this country seems to think no one under 600 will die from this disease and if they do they probably deserve it.

There's a lot of truth to this. I couldn't believe it when I saw this on Facebook today. A very infrequent poster on here made a comment about COVID and one of his (I thought) friends essentially said this. Jaw just completely dropped.

 

[dxmnkd316]

if you were to take a poll of every single person under 30 in this country on their view of the seriousness or risks of Covid, you'd probably get 90% of them saying it's no big deal. Or, if they felt like they were being tested, they'd give you the canned response of "it's serious," but then live their life as if it isn't.

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp...ults_v2_JB.pdf

Page 29 dipsh-t

53% say severe, 22% moderate, 10% minor or not at all, and 13% don't know.

If that's not good enough, take a look at Monmouth's (A+ rated) poll:
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-ins...us_090920.pdf/

63% of 18-34 year olds think that we're opening up too quickly. All other age groups were actually LOWER than that.

 

[SJHovey]

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp...ults_v2_JB.pdf

Page 29 dipsh-t

53% say severe, 22% moderate, 10% minor or not at all, and 13% don't know.

So you figure that 75% of young adults are living their lives and acting as if they consider this disease serious, or moderately serious? Of do you think the second part of my quote might be accurate?

Or, if they felt like they were being tested, they'd give you the canned response of "it's serious," but then live their life as if it isn't.

 

[dxmnkd316]

So you figure that 75% of young adults are living their lives and acting as if they consider this disease serious, or moderately serious? Of do you think the second part of my quote might be accurate?

Or, if they felt like they were being tested, they'd give you the canned response of "it's serious," but then live their life as if it isn't.

Two polls I just gave you are fairly well aligned in terms of 18-34 YOs and their opinions. Or do you think they somehow sampled the same people? I can find you another poll if you're unsure/don't know

 

[jerphisch]

Two polls I just gave you are fairly well aligned in terms of 18-34 YOs and their opinions. Or do you think they somehow sampled the same people? I can find you another poll if you're unsure/don't know

Yeah but there are pictures loaded with MAGA chuds out living it up.

 

[SJHovey]

Two polls I just gave you are fairly well aligned in terms of 18-34 YOs and their opinions. Or do you think they somehow sampled the same people? I can find you another poll if you're unsure/don't know

If you want to believe that 75% of young people are treating this as a serious or moderately serious disease, I'm not going to try to persuade you otherwise.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Yeah but there are pictures loaded with MAGA chuds out living it up.

It's almost like... the media he consumes isn't painting an accurate picture.

I'm absolutely positive there are a lot of idiot 18 YOs going out and getting drunk because "COLLEGE!" but I'm also guessing there's a massive number that are trying to do this responsibly because they aren't fucking stupid. But they don't exactly make for sexy headlines or compelling pictures.

 

[dxmnkd316]

If you want to believe that 75% of young people are treating this as a serious or moderately serious disease, I'm not going to try to persuade you otherwise.

Now I'm curious. Would you say you pulled your opinion from:
A) Your a-ss
B) Someone else's a-ss
C) Fox News
D) "I've been talking to..." (see also, A & B)
E) I don't know/No Opinion

Here's the whole lot of COVID polling. https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/covid-19-polls/
Feel free to dig through before answering.

 

[SJHovey]

Now I'm curious. Would you say you pulled your opinion from:
A) Your a-ss
B) Someone else's a-ss
C) Fox News
D) "I've been talking to..." (see also, A & B)
E) I don't know/No Opinion

Here's the whole lot of COVID polling. https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/covid-19-polls/
Feel free to dig through before answering.

Simple observation. When I've personally observed large groups together this summer, it's been almost exclusively young people. When I saw crowded pontoons on the lake two weeks ago, it was young people. I drove up to my favorite brewery about a month ago for a take out order and the place was packed, again with young people.

I'm not trying to persuade you otherwise. Simply my observation. Feel free to rely upon your polls. It's not like we've ever been mislead by polls before, at least not in the last four years.

 

[jerphisch]

Simple observation. When I've personally observed large groups together this summer, it's been almost exclusively young people. When I saw crowded pontoons on the lake two weeks ago, it was young people. I drove up to my favorite brewery about a month ago for a take out order and the place was packed, again with young people.

I'm not trying to persuade you otherwise. Simply my observation. Feel free to rely upon your polls. It's not like we've ever been mislead by polls before, at least not in the last four years.

Friendly reminder that the polls 4 years ago pretty much nailed it.

 

[Kepler]

You can cast blame wherever it makes you feel best. But the honest truth is that if you were to take a poll of every single person under 30 in this country on their view of the seriousness or risks of Covid, you'd probably get 90% of them saying it's no big deal. Or, if they felt like they were being tested, they'd give you the canned response of "it's serious," but then live their life as if it isn't.

You don't have exposure to the full spectrum of 20-somethings. The informed and educated ones know it's a big deal. They've altered their lives. They understand science and peer reviewed research. They aren't the MAGA trailer trash who are partying because they think medicine is a liberal hoax since their parents and pastors and peers told them so.

I have no doubt the stupid kids are living exactly as they did before: irresponsibly. It's the same reason they get knocked up and sink into drug abuse. And for people whose lives peaked in high school that even might make sense. But the kids with a future are protecting it, because they're not morons, and they were not raised by morons.

 

[net presence]

Hovey.....just one man's opinion but, I think Kep's got you on this one...

 

[SJHovey]

You don't have exposure to the full spectrum of 20-somethings. The informed and educated ones know it's a big deal. They've altered their lives. They understand science and peer reviewed research. They aren't the MAGA trailer trash who are partying because they think medicine is a liberal hoax since their parents and pastors and peers told them so.

I have no doubt the stupid kids are living exactly as they did before: irresponsibly. It's the same reason they get knocked up and sink into drug abuse. And for people whose lives peaked in high school that even might make sense. But the kids with a future are protecting it, because they're not morons, and they were not raised by morons.

Obviously I don't have the ability to watch all 20-somethings and their activities. I can only watch the ones that I come across.

But here is something that has puzzled me, and is one of the reasons that I think I'm closer to being right than wrong on this.

I really only follow what's going on with the virus in Minnesota and North Dakota. I live in one state and have family in the other.

In both states that college age demographic is dominating in terms of positive tests.

For instance, in Minnesota, the 20-24 age bracket has had 37% more positive tests than the next largest 5 year bracket. Yet the 20-24 year age bracket is the smallest in terms of actual population for 5 year age brackets until you get to the 55-59 age bracket.

North Dakota is exactly the same way. They're doing theirs in 10 year brackets, but again the 20-29 age bracket is crushing the rest. That group has 74% more positive tests than the next largest 10 year bracket. It has 28% of the total cases in the state, yet something like 15-16% of the population.

Why is that? Is it because 20-29 year olds are more susceptible to this particular disease? I've seen no studies suggesting that. Is it just because of the volume of tests on that particular age group? I don't know that. I don't think I've seen a "tests performed" breakdown by age, but maybe it exists out there.

I tend to think that a lot of it has to do with what I've been talking about here, which is that we're talking about an age group that is much, much more likely to engage in "community spread" types of activities, without taking all of the precautions that a much older and more vulnerable group might.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

I tend to think that a lot of it has to do with what I've been talking about here, which is that we're talking about an age group that is much, much more likely to engage in "community spread" types of activities, without taking all of the precautions that a much older and more vulnerable group might.

Correct.

 

[SJHovey]

So to the proponents of wanting to let college football happen....

We know College FB is much different than pros- like all other sports, the college athletes can not live in a bubble, since they also have to be part of the school. Which raises their exposure, and therefore risk.

Lets pretend that we restart all schools.

How does one decide to shut it back down?

We know that the virus can spread earlier than it can be detected. Especially with the delays in testing.

Do you shut down when the first case is detected? Or just isolate that person, and every other person they have come in contact with?

Do you shut it down after how many cases?

Do you wait until someone actually gets sick?

Do you wait until someone gets REALLY sick? Like where there will be heart issues in the long term?

Do you wait until someone dies from exposure due to FB?

Is this done at once campus only? Or at the conference level? Or just the teams exposed to whatever level that things are shut down?

There's no question someone is going to get sick. Too many teams, too many players, too much exposure early on to pretend that this can be like the NHL or NBA that were both given the time and space to isolate all of the players (and now families) to be sure that the risk is minimal. This will be more like the start of MLB that had a bunch of break outs in teams.

And if you are going to have to shut it down, how is that better than waiting until spring?

There's a lot of worry about kids getting hurt before going to the NFL. How is this different? Especially when some of the side effects are real, chronic, conditions that very much risk a pro career.

If those questions can't be answered, there's no reason to be playing sports. This can't be a "we will cross that bridge" issue, as it clearly gets out of hand very quickly, and waiting to decide what to do is too late.

Here is the problem. Your questions are all good and legitimate, and they can't be answered. We simply don't know. It's not like these schools have gone through 10 pandemics before.

It's kind of like when people ask "for how long" when told they have to wear a mask in public, or that restaurants and businesses are going to be shut down. We simply don't know.

Like it or not, we are all winging it. It's simply risk tolerance. How much risk are individuals, are institutions, are government leaders and agencies willing to take. At this point in time some schools and conferences are willing to take the risk. The NHL, NBA, MLB and NFL are willing to take the risk. No one knew how the NBA or NHL bubbles would work out. We still don't know. Same with MLB. Same with the NFL.

You pay your money and you take your chances.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Obviously I don't have the ability to watch all 20-somethings and their activities. I can only watch the ones that I come across.

But here is something that has puzzled me, and is one of the reasons that I think I'm closer to being right than wrong on this.

I really only follow what's going on with the virus in Minnesota and North Dakota. I live in one state and have family in the other.

In both states that college age demographic is dominating in terms of positive tests.

For instance, in Minnesota, the 20-24 age bracket has had 37% more positive tests than the next largest 5 year bracket. Yet the 20-24 year age bracket is the smallest in terms of actual population for 5 year age brackets until you get to the 55-59 age bracket.

North Dakota is exactly the same way. They're doing theirs in 10 year brackets, but again the 20-29 age bracket is crushing the rest. That group has 74% more positive tests than the next largest 10 year bracket. It has 28% of the total cases in the state, yet something like 15-16% of the population.

Why is that? Is it because 20-29 year olds are more susceptible to this particular disease? I've seen no studies suggesting that. Is it just because of the volume of tests on that particular age group? I don't know that. I don't think I've seen a "tests performed" breakdown by age, but maybe it exists out there.

I tend to think that a lot of it has to do with what I've been talking about here, which is that we're talking about an age group that is much, much more likely to engage in "community spread" types of activities, without taking all of the precautions that a much older and more vulnerable group might.

So here are the actual demos:
[TABLE="width: 600"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Pop Share[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Tests Share[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Pos Share[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Neg Share[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Positivity[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].Under 5 years[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]6.23%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]2.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]1.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]2.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]3.7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].5 to 9 years[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]6.43%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]1.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]1.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]1.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]5.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].10 to 14 years[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]6.56%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]1.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]2.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]1.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]7.8%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].15 to 19 years[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]6.40%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]5.4%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]8.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]5.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]8.8%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].20 to 24 years[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]6.31%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]8.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]12.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]8.4%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]8.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].25 to 29 years[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]6.72%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]8.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]9.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]8.5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]6.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].30 to 34 years[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]6.81%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]8.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]9.1%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]8.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]5.8%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].35 to 39 years[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]6.89%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]7.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]8.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]7.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]5.7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].40 to 44 years[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]5.97%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]6.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]7.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]6.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]6.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].45 to 49 years[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]5.83%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]5.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]6.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]5.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]6.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].50 to 54 years[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]6.11%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]6.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]6.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]6.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]5.9%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].55 to 59 years[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]6.93%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]6.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]6.1%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]6.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]4.9%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].60 to 64 years[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]6.48%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]6.4%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]4.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]6.5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]4.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].65 to 69 years[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]5.38%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]5.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]3.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]5.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]3.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].70 to 74 years[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]4.03%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]4.5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]2.5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]4.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]3.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].75 to 79 years[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]2.82%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]3.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]2.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]3.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]3.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].80 to 84 years[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]1.91%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]3.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]2.1%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]3.4%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]3.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"].85 years and over[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]2.17%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]6.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]3.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]6.5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"]3.3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Yeah, you're not wrong, they do have the highest number of positives. But their positivity rate is isn't drastically different than the average for each age bracket between 25-29 and 50-54. It's also LOWER than the 15-19 bracket and about equal to the 10-14 bracket. Positivity also tracks fairly well with population share.

So I'm not entirely sure that tells us much. Especially when you see there's a very strong correlation between testing share and positive share. They are clearly the outliers. But that's not surprising given so many are being crammed into overcrowded dorms. Which probably accounts for the fact that their share of positives doubled since the week prior: https://www.health.state.mn.us/disea...idweekly36.pdf (page 23)

Dorms are basically fixed cruise ships with tight quarters. Combine that with the fact that most dorms have communal bathrooms, communal eating areas, aren't segregated by family (each person having different contacts) and you have a recipe for disaster. There's no way to prevent the spread even if everyone is taking near-perfect precautions.

Plus, I'm guessing the younger you are, the more likely you work a job where you need to go in to work. I'm also guessing that the 20-24 group is most likely to have at least one non-family roommate making the contact network double right off the bat. Within a family, you're more likely to have a common set of rules and approach.

In the end, it doesn't show us shit. There are probably some idiot MAGA chuds out there who think they're invincible kids but I'm also guessing that there's a very sizable portion that aren't and are taking this seriously.

 

[Slap Shot]

My sons are 16 and 18. I know for a fact they and the vast majority of their friends consider this a serious issue - not only for themselves but more importantly for parents and relatives that are not as fit and young as they are. But you guys can post polls until you're blue in the face he's not going to budge from his stubborn willful decision to ignore reality that doesn't fit a narrative.

 

[jerphisch]

Hovey is observing young people do young people things. My guess is pre-pandemic he would have seen the same type of people doing the same things, nothing has changed regarding who is most likely to do certain activities. Did the average age of the 500k people who went to Sturgis change? My guess is no, it didn't drop by 30 years where suddenly Sturgis was overrun with college kids. The harder to quantify part is how many fewer people are still doing those things, but all signs point to many.

 

[Jimjamesak]

dx makes a good point regarding work and people in that age group. Think about how many restaurant and retail type jobs are worked by that age group, and most often out of necessity.