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Climate Change: This Rock Will Soon Be Uninhabitable

psych said:
So of the 221 tropical systems to hit Louisiana since the Antebellum, 17 tropical systems, or 7.7%, have produced 10+ inches of rain over a 2-day period? (10 inches being used due to the predicted precipitation from this system). That’s assuming all 17 days came solely from tropical systems. Did Louisiana have any storms that produced 10+ inches of rain that came from somewhere other than the Gulf? Sounds like tropical systems hitting Louisiana is a frequent occurrence, but one hitting with this magnitude is generally not. I feel like you two are talking past each other. 🤷🏻
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A few things to clarify here:

1. Not all storms that hit Louisiana impacted New Orleans. Likewise, storms that didn't make landfall in Louisiana have impacted New Orleans.
2. No, not all of the storms that produced 10" in New Orleans were tropical systems.
3. The NWS is forecasting 2-3" of rain in New Orleans, with a "worst case scenario" of 6-8", not 10"+, so I'm not sure where that came from to begin with. They are showing the potential for 3-6 inches in south-central Louisiana with a "worse-case scenario" of 6-10", which again, is not that uncommon from a tropical system moving into/across the Northern Gulf, but again, that is not New Orleans. (https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LIX&wwa=flood watch)
 
ScottK said:
A few things to clarify here:

1. Not all storms that hit Louisiana impacted New Orleans. Likewise, storms that didn't make landfall in Louisiana have impacted New Orleans.
2. No, not all of the storms that produced 10" in New Orleans were tropical systems.
3. The NWS is forecasting 2-3" of rain in New Orleans, with a "worst case scenario" of 6-8", not 10"+, so I'm not sure where that came from to begin with. They are showing the potential for 3-6 inches in south-central Louisiana with a "worse-case scenario" of 6-10", which again, is not that uncommon from a tropical system moving into/across the Northern Gulf, but again, that is not New Orleans. (https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LIX&wwa=flood watch)
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I have been understanding everything you’re saying, but then again I’ve had grad courses in climate science.

It can be difficult to explain to people and I’m honestly not sure how else you could be stating it.
 
ScottK said:
A few things to clarify here:

1. Not all storms that hit Louisiana impacted New Orleans. Likewise, storms that didn't make landfall in Louisiana have impacted New Orleans.
2. No, not all of the storms that produced 10" in New Orleans were tropical systems.
3. The NWS is forecasting 2-3" of rain in New Orleans, with a "worst case scenario" of 6-8", not 10"+, so I'm not sure where that came from to begin with. They are showing the potential for 3-6 inches in south-central Louisiana with a "worse-case scenario" of 6-10", which again, is not that uncommon from a tropical system moving into/across the Northern Gulf, but again, that is not New Orleans. (https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LIX&wwa=flood watch)
Click to expand...

The NYT article originally posted predicted New Orleans could get up to 10” of rain. Seems to be where that part of the conversation started. Quick perusal of the most updated predictions say 15 inches isn’t out of the realm of possibility, especially southeast of Nola, and that 10 inches in Nola can’t be ruled out.

The original point was these systems are getting bigger and stronger with climate change. Maybe this particular system isn’t unusual in its intensity or frequency, but the original point is still correct. And I still think you and Joe Wilson- er, LynahFan- are talking past each other.
 
psych said:
The NYT article originally posted predicted New Orleans could get up to 10” of rain. Seems to be where that part of the conversation started. Quick perusal of the most updated predictions say 15 inches isn’t out of the realm of possibility, especially southeast of Nola, and that 10 inches in Nola can’t be ruled out.

The original point was these systems are getting bigger and stronger with climate change. Maybe this particular system isn’t unusual in its intensity or frequency, but the original point is still correct. And I still think you and Joe Wilson- er, LynahFan- are talking past each other.
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Actually, most of the forecasts are lowering amounts, because the system is even weaker than the models were originally showing. Most of the models are only showing 1-2" for New Orleans, with a few spots possibly getting 5" along the central Louisiana coast.
 
Well that’s good news. That’s not what I’m seeing but 🤷🏻 I see it set some rainfall records in multiple parts of Florida.
 
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