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Climate Change: This Rock Will Soon Be Uninhabitable

psych said:
So of the 221 tropical systems to hit Louisiana since the Antebellum, 17 tropical systems, or 7.7%, have produced 10+ inches of rain over a 2-day period? (10 inches being used due to the predicted precipitation from this system). That’s assuming all 17 days came solely from tropical systems. Did Louisiana have any storms that produced 10+ inches of rain that came from somewhere other than the Gulf? Sounds like tropical systems hitting Louisiana is a frequent occurrence, but one hitting with this magnitude is generally not. I feel like you two are talking past each other. 🤷🏻
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A few things to clarify here:

1. Not all storms that hit Louisiana impacted New Orleans. Likewise, storms that didn't make landfall in Louisiana have impacted New Orleans.
2. No, not all of the storms that produced 10" in New Orleans were tropical systems.
3. The NWS is forecasting 2-3" of rain in New Orleans, with a "worst case scenario" of 6-8", not 10"+, so I'm not sure where that came from to begin with. They are showing the potential for 3-6 inches in south-central Louisiana with a "worse-case scenario" of 6-10", which again, is not that uncommon from a tropical system moving into/across the Northern Gulf, but again, that is not New Orleans. (https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LIX&wwa=flood watch)
 
ScottK said:
A few things to clarify here:

1. Not all storms that hit Louisiana impacted New Orleans. Likewise, storms that didn't make landfall in Louisiana have impacted New Orleans.
2. No, not all of the storms that produced 10" in New Orleans were tropical systems.
3. The NWS is forecasting 2-3" of rain in New Orleans, with a "worst case scenario" of 6-8", not 10"+, so I'm not sure where that came from to begin with. They are showing the potential for 3-6 inches in south-central Louisiana with a "worse-case scenario" of 6-10", which again, is not that uncommon from a tropical system moving into/across the Northern Gulf, but again, that is not New Orleans. (https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LIX&wwa=flood watch)
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I have been understanding everything you’re saying, but then again I’ve had grad courses in climate science.

It can be difficult to explain to people and I’m honestly not sure how else you could be stating it.
 
ScottK said:
A few things to clarify here:

1. Not all storms that hit Louisiana impacted New Orleans. Likewise, storms that didn't make landfall in Louisiana have impacted New Orleans.
2. No, not all of the storms that produced 10" in New Orleans were tropical systems.
3. The NWS is forecasting 2-3" of rain in New Orleans, with a "worst case scenario" of 6-8", not 10"+, so I'm not sure where that came from to begin with. They are showing the potential for 3-6 inches in south-central Louisiana with a "worse-case scenario" of 6-10", which again, is not that uncommon from a tropical system moving into/across the Northern Gulf, but again, that is not New Orleans. (https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LIX&wwa=flood watch)
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The NYT article originally posted predicted New Orleans could get up to 10” of rain. Seems to be where that part of the conversation started. Quick perusal of the most updated predictions say 15 inches isn’t out of the realm of possibility, especially southeast of Nola, and that 10 inches in Nola can’t be ruled out.

The original point was these systems are getting bigger and stronger with climate change. Maybe this particular system isn’t unusual in its intensity or frequency, but the original point is still correct. And I still think you and Joe Wilson- er, LynahFan- are talking past each other.
 
psych said:
The NYT article originally posted predicted New Orleans could get up to 10” of rain. Seems to be where that part of the conversation started. Quick perusal of the most updated predictions say 15 inches isn’t out of the realm of possibility, especially southeast of Nola, and that 10 inches in Nola can’t be ruled out.

The original point was these systems are getting bigger and stronger with climate change. Maybe this particular system isn’t unusual in its intensity or frequency, but the original point is still correct. And I still think you and Joe Wilson- er, LynahFan- are talking past each other.
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Actually, most of the forecasts are lowering amounts, because the system is even weaker than the models were originally showing. Most of the models are only showing 1-2" for New Orleans, with a few spots possibly getting 5" along the central Louisiana coast.
 
Well that’s good news. That’s not what I’m seeing but 🤷🏻 I see it set some rainfall records in multiple parts of Florida.
 
Was just looking at where fires are in Utah. The big one, Monroe Canyon, is just west of the Pando. The Pando is an Aspen grove that is believed to be the world's largest tree by weight and landmass as the entire 106 acres it covers is one root system supporting a multi-stem tree where each stem possess identical genetic markers. It is a neat area that I got the opportunity to see a few years ago really by accident. Thankfully, the tree appears to be quite resistant to fire (due the "water-heavy" nature of Aspen) and has likely survived fires for quite some time. As long as some root survives it should be able to regenerate. Still. It would be pretty devastating to see it damaged.

It's biggest threat, beyond the obvious climate change and other manmade threats, is actually elk and deer eating the new shoots that come up. Sections of it are actually fenced off to help reduce the risks.

Here is a little more about Pando: Wiki Friends of Pando Organization
 
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Proud2baLaker said:
Was just looking at where fires are in Utah. The big one, Monroe Canyon, is just west of the Pando. The Pando is an Aspen grove that is believed to be the world's largest tree by weight and landmass as the entire 106 acres it covers is one root system supporting a multi-stem tree where each stem possess identical genetic markers. It is a neat area that I got the opportunity to see a few years ago really by accident. Thankfully, the tree appears to be quite resistant to fire (due the "water-heavy" nature of Aspen) and has likely survived fires for quite some time. As long as some root survives it should be able to regenerate. Still. It would be pretty devastating to see it damaged.

It's biggest threat, beyond the obvious climate change and other manmade threats, is actually elk and deer eating the new shoots that come up. Sections of it are actually fenced off to help reduce the risks.

Here is a little more about Pando: Wiki Friends of Pando Organization
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Yes - there have been articles recently about how the trees in Yellowstone are much healthier now that they've re-introduced wolves that are keeping the elk population in balance. Definitely a "side effect" that I had not thought of.
 
Kepler said:
I care because the Wasatch (sp?) valley is the most lovely place I have ever been.

In the US, the shittiest people live in either the ugliest or the most beautiful places.
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As a current Idaho resident, I cannot agree more with that 2nd statement. I have also had so many facepalm moments when these chuckleheads talk about how much they love going into the mountains or the desert or whatever and enjoying nature, and then turn around and vote for people who will destroy it. Happily.
 
Proud2baLaker said:
As a current Idaho resident, I cannot agree more with that 2nd statement. I have also had so many facepalm moments when these chuckleheads talk about how much they love going into the mountains or the desert or whatever and enjoying nature, and then turn around and vote for people who will destroy it. Happily.
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Idaho is the epitome of this for me.

My extended family just finished building a new home in a rather expensive area of the state, curious to see it and get the local vibe (other than “really wealthy”)
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
Idaho is the epitome of this for me.

My extended family just finished building a new home in a rather expensive area of the state, curious to see it and get the local vibe (other than “really wealthy”)
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What area? If its Sun Valley, that is an interesting one. Wealthy, but has voted Dem president since 1992 with 58-67% since 2004. Panhandle region especially around Couer d'Alene has some wealth but will be more conservative for sure. Boise area can be a mixed bag. Still votes consistently for R but is closer to 50/50. Teton county (with Jackson Hole, WY to the east) has been shifting more blue. Started closer to slightly red with 2012 and 2016. But is now shifted to blue in 2020 and 2024. Latah county, which contains Moscow and the Univ of Idaho, had actually been blue for a while but sadly went red in 2024.
 
Proud2baLaker said:
What area? If its Sun Valley, that is an interesting one. Wealthy, but has voted Dem president since 1992 with 58-67% since 2004. Panhandle region especially around Couer d'Alene has some wealth but will be more conservative for sure. Boise area can be a mixed bag. Still votes consistently for R but is closer to 50/50. Teton county (with Jackson Hole, WY to the east) has been shifting more blue. Started closer to slightly red with 2012 and 2016. But is now shifted to blue in 2020 and 2024. Latah county, which contains Moscow and the Univ of Idaho, had actually been blue for a while but sadly went red in 2024.
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Sun valley
 
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