Deutsche Gopher Fan
Registered User
“This has never happened before. Only evil people would ask that”
USCHO Fan Forum
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
-
The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.
Climate Change: This Rock Will Soon Be Uninhabitable
- Thread starter MissThundercat
- Start date
Bronco
Onondaga United IV.6
BIG RADAR is creating these storms.
ScottK
Riverhawk Radio Meteorologist and Statistician
The term 1000-year flood is misleading. By definition, it means a flood that has a 1-in-1000 chance of happening in any given year. Since there are approximately 250,000 rivers in the US alone, there should be approximately 250 "1000-year floods" across the US in any given year.
Weeeelllllll…. I don’t think those 250,000 rivers are really independent trials. If I’m flooded, there’s a good chance that the rivers to my left, right, upstream, and downstream are all flooded, too. Still, I agree with your larger point that unlikely events are not as rare as they seem!
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
I am sorry but that is sort bastardizing what people are saying about "1000 year floods". Yes if you take the whole of the river system in the US it won't be as rare based on numbers...but no one is talking about those events in a general sense. They are talking about specific events in specific areas that aren't supposed to be happening as often as they seem to be. That just isn't the same thing.
This is like when people say "well cops deal with thousands of people around the country and only a few end up killing or shooting people so it is still pretty rare!". Sure overall the numbers dont look as bad but that doesn't mean the actions of cops in Aurora, CO aren't example of a trend or aren't incredibly rare. (since they do it all the time)
If a thousand people flip a coin a thousand times the chances that someone gets heads 50 times in row is obviously not as rare as it would be if one dude does it. If that one dude does it you cant say "yeah but people flip coins all the time so it is not that big of a deal".
If say "River X" has a 1-1000 chance of something happening but it happens 3 time in 10 years (these are just made up numbers) that has zero to do with what is happening in other rivers in other parts of the country not affected by the same factors.
This is like when people say "well cops deal with thousands of people around the country and only a few end up killing or shooting people so it is still pretty rare!". Sure overall the numbers dont look as bad but that doesn't mean the actions of cops in Aurora, CO aren't example of a trend or aren't incredibly rare. (since they do it all the time)
If a thousand people flip a coin a thousand times the chances that someone gets heads 50 times in row is obviously not as rare as it would be if one dude does it. If that one dude does it you cant say "yeah but people flip coins all the time so it is not that big of a deal".
If say "River X" has a 1-1000 chance of something happening but it happens 3 time in 10 years (these are just made up numbers) that has zero to do with what is happening in other rivers in other parts of the country not affected by the same factors.
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
That's a really good question: does "1000-year flood" mean "once in 1000 years anywhere" (vanishingly rare) or "once in 1000 years for this particular river" (could be really common -- there are a lot of rivers).
Edit: annnnnnnnnnnnd ScottK said the exact same thing above. Fuck me for not reading back.
Edit: annnnnnnnnnnnd ScottK said the exact same thing above. Fuck me for not reading back.
ScottK
Riverhawk Radio Meteorologist and Statistician
It's not "bastardizing it" since that is the literal definition of "1000-year flood" according to the USGS (https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-1000-year-flood), based on historical data.
Just because we hear about it more in populated areas doesn't change how often it is happening. There could be 1000-year floods in areas where virtually nobody lives and you'd never about it.
Deutsche Gopher Fan
Registered User
Yeah the intensity has increased, which is why you see so many insurance companies
correct. Weather systems are strengthening at frightening rates, along with things like wildfire and hail storms making the insurance companies doing what they do.
I think some people equate more weather events with flooding
The Gulf Coast states are about to get hammered with extremely high rainfall amounts (5-10 inches) thanks to global warming increasing temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.
But climate-change-denier Trump's only interest in the gulf is punishing those who won't call it Gulf of America.
Yet another whopper that flew under the radar was last week's claim that China has very few wind farms. They have by far the most in the world. The Lying POS can't bring himself to say the word "turbines" so rants and lies about windmills.
But climate-change-denier Trump's only interest in the gulf is punishing those who won't call it Gulf of America.
Yet another whopper that flew under the radar was last week's claim that China has very few wind farms. They have by far the most in the world. The Lying POS can't bring himself to say the word "turbines" so rants and lies about windmills.
ScottK
Riverhawk Radio Meteorologist and Statistician
The Gulf Coast gets hit with tropical systems, either disorganized (like this one is now) or organized (as this one might be later in the week) several times every year. This one is no different than any of the other hundreds of systems to impact that region over the past century.
walrus
Wind up workin' in a gas station
Solar also
You lie.
Here's a link that shows the maximum rainfall amount for a single day for New Orleans going back to 1898. Note that only 4 our of those 110 years (that have data) had a day with 10+ inches of rain. There have not been "hundreds of systems" like this over the last century.
New Orleans LA Most Rain in a Day for Each Year - Current Results
The highest amount of rain to fall in a single day for each year in New Orleans.
www.currentresults.com
Of course - language matters, and Trump wields it to belittle and demean. When you say "windmills" people imagine cute little gristmills in Holland, not 500-foot diameter marvels of engineering.
ScottK
Riverhawk Radio Meteorologist and Statistician
You're right, there haven't been "hundreds" of tropical systems in the northern Gulf over the past century. Oh wait, yes there has. According to info from NOAA, Louisiana as a whole has had 221 different tropical systems (tropical depression or stronger) make landfall since 1851. That's just Louisiana, not even counting the other states in the Northern Gulf. But hey, let's just cherry pick one city, one very high threshold, and one restricted time period (calendar day, because storms always follow the calendar), and use that as an example to try and prove me wrong.You lie.
Here's a link that shows the maximum rainfall amount for a single day for New Orleans going back to 1898. Note that only 4 our of those 110 years (that have data) had a day with 10+ inches of rain. There have not been "hundreds of systems" like this over the last century.
New Orleans LA Most Rain in a Day for Each Year - Current Results
The highest amount of rain to fall in a single day for each year in New Orleans.
BTW, according to official data from NOAA, New Orleans itself has had 5 calendar days with 10"+ since 1893. However, if you change it to 2 days, that total jumps to 17 2-day periods with 10"+ of rainfall, which is still pretty remarkable.
So....17 is still less than "hundreds," yes?
ScottK
Riverhawk Radio Meteorologist and Statistician
Here's the thing, I'm talking about tropical systems in general, which yes, there have been hundreds. You're just talking times that New Orleans has received 10 or more inches of rain. There's a rather LARGE difference between my original statement, and your reply where you called me a liar using data that has virtually nothing to do with my original point.
psych
Well-known member
So of the 221 tropical systems to hit Louisiana since the Antebellum, 17 tropical systems, or 7.7%, have produced 10+ inches of rain over a 2-day period? (10 inches being used due to the predicted precipitation from this system). That’s assuming all 17 days came solely from tropical systems. Did Louisiana have any storms that produced 10+ inches of rain that came from somewhere other than the Gulf? Sounds like tropical systems hitting Louisiana is a frequent occurrence, but one hitting with this magnitude is generally not. I feel like you two are talking past each other. 