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Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

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Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

That's the part of all this that most pundidiots are missing. Hillary will fairly easily keep the Obama coalition intact as for every Edward Snowden devotee she loses she picks up more than that due to the Girl Power crowd. As Obama won two elections convincingly and the GOP will probably put up another dinosaur the odds are in her favor.

A big issue then is does she crush the opposition or just merely win. Older married women are one of the most reliable GOP voters nowadays. I find it hard to believe a generation of women in their 50's-70's and even beyond are going to bypass the chance to see a woman President in their lifetimes, even if they aren't 100% wild about her personally. That would be like saying Catholics weren't excited about Kennedy or blacks about Obama. Take them out of the GOP's vote and all you're left with is grumpy old men.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Rover said:
A big issue then is does she crush the opposition or just merely win. Older married women are one of the most reliable GOP voters nowadays. I find it hard to believe a generation of women in their 50's-70's and even beyond are going to bypass the chance to see a woman President in their lifetimes, even if they aren't 100% wild about her personally. That would be like saying Catholics weren't excited about Kennedy or blacks about Obama. Take them out of the GOP's vote and all you're left with is grumpy old men.
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I'll bet the women who would back Hillary out of Girl Power are already voting Democratic. The GOP has been so hateful towards any other image of a woman than Kinder, Küche, Kirche that the women who have hitherto been lining up behind them are motivated by religion or just lifers.

I don't see anybody switching sides, but elections are won by turn out, and I could see women with spotty voting records turn out in droves for Hillary just like blacks did for O. It's also going to be hard for the GOP to play their usual "unless he's a white male he's not a real 'Murican" shtick against women. No doubt the professionals will try to quash that, but the grassroots will be full of Schlafly types peddling 19th century visions of feminine identity that will not just fall flat on contemporary women, but repulse them.

The interesting tactical problem for the GOP is if Hillary is the nominee then they must put a woman on the ticket, and there is no credible woman for the GOP to choose. Palin is a moron and Bachmann is insane. Rice is sick to death of the whole circus. Look at this list, from a righty source. It's a freakshow.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Kepler said:
I'll bet the women who would back Hillary out of Girl Power are already voting Democratic. The GOP has been so hateful towards any other image of a woman than Kinder, Küche, Kirche that the women who have hitherto been lining up behind them are motivated by religion or just lifers.

I don't see anybody switching sides, but elections are won by turn out, and I could see women with spotty voting records turn out in droves for Hillary just like blacks did for O. It's also going to be hard for the GOP to play their usual "unless he's a white male he's not a real 'Murican" shtick against women. No doubt the professionals will try to quash that, but the grassroots will be full of Schlafly types peddling 19th century visions of feminine identity that will not just fall flat on contemporary women, but repulse them.

The interesting tactical problem for the GOP is if Hillary is the nominee then they must put a woman on the ticket, and there is no credible woman for the GOP to choose. Palin is a moron and Bachmann is insane. Rice is sick to death of the whole circus. Look at this list, from a righty source. It's a freakshow.
Click to expand...

In lieu of a woman on the ticket, I think despite his flaws they almost have to put Rubio on the ticket to try and counter the "making history" narrative. Not only is he Hispanic but the GOP has zero hope of winning the election without winning Florida. They aren't about to put Rick Scott on the ticket. :eek: While a Paul-Rubio ticket will still lose, as Paul from Kentucky isn't strong in any swing states they need to win, at least it gets closer with perhaps Florida's 29 electoral votes (and yes I realize Paul Ryan didn't help Mittens in Wisconsin last time).
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Rover said:
In lieu of a woman on the ticket, I think despite his flaws they almost have to put Rubio on the ticket to try and counter the "making history" narrative. Not only is he Hispanic but the GOP has zero hope of winning the election without winning Florida. They aren't about to put Rick Scott on the ticket. :eek: While a Paul-Rubio ticket will still lose, as Paul from Kentucky isn't strong in any swing states they need to win, at least it gets closer with perhaps Florida's 29 electoral votes (and yes I realize Paul Ryan didn't help Mittens in Wisconsin last time).
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Didn't Rubio peace out when he came out in favor of an immigration policy that did not include garroting all brown children at the border?

A Hispanic woman would be the magic unicorn of this cycle. Leticia Van de Putte and Michelle Lujan Grisham are local yokel. Susana Martínez is popular and successful; maybe whatever dead white male the GOP nominates will throw her a bone.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Kepler said:
Didn't Rubio peace out when he came out in favor of an immigration policy that did not include all garroting all brown children at the border?

A Hispanic woman would be the magic unicorn of this cycle. Leticia Van de Putte and Michelle Lujan Grisham are local yokel. Susana Martínez is popular and successful; maybe whatever dead white male the GOP nominates will throw her a bone.
Click to expand...

GOP's approach will be interesting. They need a ticket that appeals to the South (VA and FL, very different states), the West (CO, maybe NV) and the Rust Belt (OH). That's not easy to pull off especially if the party's top prospects are from KY and TX. Does anybody really want Bush II budget director Portman as their VP? :eek:

Not that he had good odds of getting the nomination beforehand, but with Christie taking on water nationally (Bridgegate, unemployment, budget mess, etc) there goes an opportunity for someone who could change the electoral calculus by competing for NJ, PA, etc. Absent that you have a situation where whatever Gooper it is regardless of a Hillary candidacy needs to run the table in almost all swing states to win.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Rover said:
Absent that you have a situation where whatever Gooper it is regardless of a Hillary candidacy needs to run the table in almost all swing states to win.
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Which means they need a wave. There is no way for the GOP to cobble together wins in all those varied purple states with strictly parochial appeals. They need a strong wave to lift them in all states.

Looking around, I see no wave, unless it is Paul and a repudiation of empire and militarism, and as has been pointed out below that would require a huge change in the conservative psyche. The lizard brain has been running the show for those guys for too long.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

The primary in Alaska is today. Between an Oil Tax prop and the GOP Senate race, a *ton of money has been spent.
 
Jimjamesak said:
The primary in Alaska is today. Between an Oil Tax prop and the GOP Senate race, a *ton of money has been spent.
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So in the one race that matters to the nation, the GOP primary, Dan Sullivan has a slight lead on Joe Miller with about 2/3rds reporting.
Results.

Sullivan is probably the one with best chance to beat Begich. If Miller wins then it'll be Begich by a not quite landslide in November.

Our Oil Tax repeal proposition is close and brought out a bigger turn out this year.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Kepler said:
Which means they need a wave. .
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Or a game changer for a nominee. The Dems had lost California, the biggest electoral prize, from 1968 to 1988 until Bill Clinton came along. They hadn't won Florida since 1980 until he won in it in 1996. The 1992 election, like the 1980 election brought about a fundamental change in the electoral math governing a victory. The 1984 and 1996 elections cemented those gains.

With Obama putting aside the fluky Indiana victory in 2008 (akin to Clinton winning Arizona in 1996) IIRC the only states he's won that Clinton didn't are VA (twice) and NC (narrow win, narrow loss).

As I mentioned previously Christie before his troubles had the potential to do that with presumed support in the Northeast that the GOP hasn't seen since 1988. Not sure who pulls that off now, as Paul, Cruz, Perry, Rubio, etc are all from party base states unless I'm missing somebody. Maybe Guiliani makes another bid! :D :eek:
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Rover said:
Or a game changer for a nominee. The Dems had lost California, the biggest electoral prize, from 1968 to 1988 until Bill Clinton came along. They hadn't won Florida since 1980 until he won in it in 1996. The 1992 election, like the 1980 election brought about a fundamental change in the electoral math governing a victory. The 1984 and 1996 elections cemented those gains.

With Obama putting aside the fluky Indiana victory in 2008 (akin to Clinton winning Arizona in 1996) IIRC the only states he's won that Clinton didn't are VA (twice) and NC (narrow win, narrow loss).

As I mentioned previously Christie before his troubles had the potential to do that with presumed support in the Northeast that the GOP hasn't seen since 1988. Not sure who pulls that off now, as Paul, Cruz, Perry, Rubio, etc are all from party base states unless I'm missing somebody. Maybe Guiliani makes another bid! :D :eek:
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Mr. 9/11 was stale in 2008 -- by 2016 he'll be the hardened bubble gum underneath middle school desks.

Ronald Reagan is not walking through that door. The GOP has nobody who is transformative. Their yezhovshchina has removed everybody who challenges the party dogma. Where would a game changer come from? As you allude to with Christie, probably a liberal state, where the racist-homophobe playbook doesn't work and a statewide GOP winner has to win on a combination of moderate policy (in this GOP, that's radical) and sheer charisma.

Here are the sitting GOP governors of liberal/centrist states:

IA, Terry Branstad
ME, Paul LePage
MI, Rick Snyder
NV, Brian Sandoval
NJ, Chris Christie
NM, Susana Martinez
OH, John Kasich
PA, Tom Corbett
WI, Scott Walker

Christie is probably irreparably damaged.
Walker is poison.
LePage is a loon.
Martinez and Kasich have some measure of a national profile.
I've never heard of any of the others.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Kepler said:
Mr. 9/11 was stale in 2008 -- by 2016 he'll be the hardened bubble gum underneath middle school desks.

Ronald Reagan is not walking through that door. The GOP has nobody who is transformative. Their yezhovshchina has removed everybody who challenges the party dogma. Where would a game changer come from? As you allude to with Christie, probably a liberal state, where the racist-homophobe playbook doesn't work and a statewide GOP winner has to win on a combination of moderate policy (in this GOP, that's radical) and sheer charisma.

Here are the sitting GOP governors of liberal/centrist states:

IA, Terry Branstad
ME, Paul LePage
MI, Rick Snyder
NV, Brian Sandoval
NJ, Chris Christie
NM, Susana Martinez
OH, John Kasich
PA, Tom Corbett
WI, Scott Walker

Christie is probably irreparably damaged.
Walker is poison.
LePage is a loon.
Martinez and Kasich have some measure of a national profile.
I've never heard of any of the others.
Click to expand...

I think you could add Pawlenty to that list. No longer sitting but he was an R in a D state.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

dxmnkd316 said:
I think you could add Pawlenty to that list. No longer sitting but he was an R in a D state.
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Good point.

I imagine there are several cases like that.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Paul LePage for President baby!
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Rover said:
Paul LePage for President baby!
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Hey, he's neither dumber nor crazier than Palin, Bachmann, Trump, and Cain, each of whom has had a turn on top of the Republican wheel of fortune.

The closest they can give us is a Santorum nomination. He is right where the lines of insanity and nomination possibility cross. That's about the only chance I see of breaking the 52/48 split and really opening up a landslide loss.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Jimjamesak said:
So in the one race that matters to the nation, the GOP primary, Dan Sullivan has a slight lead on Joe Miller with about 2/3rds reporting.
Results.

Sullivan is probably the one with best chance to beat Begich. If Miller wins then it'll be Begich by a not quite landslide in November.

Our Oil Tax repeal proposition is close and brought out a bigger turn out this year.
Click to expand...

Sullivan wins, will face Begich in November.

GOP incumbents win handily for US Representative and governor.

Proposal 1 goes down by a few thousand votes. Existing oil tax system remains.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Kepler said:
Didn't Rubio peace out when he came out in favor of an immigration policy that did not include garroting all brown children at the border?

A Hispanic woman would be the magic unicorn of this cycle. Leticia Van de Putte and Michelle Lujan Grisham are local yokel. Susana Martínez is popular and successful; maybe whatever dead white male the GOP nominates will throw her a bone.
Click to expand...

Van de Putte is a (D). She's running for Lt. Gov. on Davis's ticket.
 
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