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Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
- Thread starter joecct
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ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
They have two Hispanics running. This is as good as it gets for them.
LOL
They have two Hispanics running. This is as good as it gets for them.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
Right color, wrong flavor.
Right color, wrong flavor.
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
There's still a theory that maximizing the white vote will bring victory. If the voters are roughly 70% white / 30% non-white, and you hit 65% of the white vote, you can afford to lose 80% of the non-white vote and still win.
Two problems with this theory are that 65% of white vote would outdo even Reagan in '84 and 30% non-white is expected to keep growing.
There's also the issue of white voters aren't all voting the same in all states (a key miscalculation of the Romney campaign). Appalachian and Southern whites gave Obama like 10% of the vote, but IIRC he won the majority of whites in places like NH, MA, MN, IA, MI and perhaps PA.
There's still a theory that maximizing the white vote will bring victory. If the voters are roughly 70% white / 30% non-white, and you hit 65% of the white vote, you can afford to lose 80% of the non-white vote and still win.
Two problems with this theory are that 65% of white vote would outdo even Reagan in '84 and 30% non-white is expected to keep growing.
There's also the issue of white voters aren't all voting the same in all states (a key miscalculation of the Romney campaign). Appalachian and Southern whites gave Obama like 10% of the vote, but IIRC he won the majority of whites in places like NH, MA, MN, IA, MI and perhaps PA.
St. Clown
Ideas Posted are Likely Not My Own
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
If Romney had captured 0% of the minority vote in IA, but still captured the majority of the white vote in that state, he would have won it easily.
If Romney had captured 0% of the minority vote in IA, but still captured the majority of the white vote in that state, he would have won it easily.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
Redstate, of all things, did a story on this.
Explains the voter suppression measures in GOP states: if you can push down the minority presence at the polls by a few points that shaves the white percentage you need down.
The amazing thing is the Comments on that story. There isn't even an inkling that the problem is their own fault through aggressively racist policies and dog whistle rhetoric. These people have no clue of how they are perceived outside their ivory (get it?) tower.
Redstate, of all things, did a story on this.
Explains the voter suppression measures in GOP states: if you can push down the minority presence at the polls by a few points that shaves the white percentage you need down.
The amazing thing is the Comments on that story. There isn't even an inkling that the problem is their own fault through aggressively racist policies and dog whistle rhetoric. These people have no clue of how they are perceived outside their ivory (get it?) tower.
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Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
Obama won the majority of whites in NH, ME, VT, MA, CT, RI, NY, HI
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/10/1159759/-Percent-of-White-vote-won-by-Obama-2012-by-state
Obama won the majority of whites in NH, ME, VT, MA, CT, RI, NY, HI
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/10/1159759/-Percent-of-White-vote-won-by-Obama-2012-by-state
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
That is an awesome table. Thanks.
One question is whether there are numbers of any significance of whites who will vote for Clinton but who would not vote for Obama. I'm tempted to say that anybody who won't vote for a candidate primarily because they're black is already GOP, but there may still be a few old guard Dixiecrats who never got the memo to switch parties in the 70s.
But Clinton could certainly appeal to Cold War liberals who distrusted Obama's foreign policy credentials.
That is an awesome table. Thanks.
One question is whether there are numbers of any significance of whites who will vote for Clinton but who would not vote for Obama. I'm tempted to say that anybody who won't vote for a candidate primarily because they're black is already GOP, but there may still be a few old guard Dixiecrats who never got the memo to switch parties in the 70s.
But Clinton could certainly appeal to Cold War liberals who distrusted Obama's foreign policy credentials.
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bostonewe
Short/Round
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
Voted this morning. Was very disappointed with turnout, but I'm hoping that it was the time I went to the polls. Other people I spoke with said there were lines, hopefully a good turnout today.
Additionally, I hope these candidates intend to clean up their d@mn signs that are posted everywhere. What an eyesore.
Voted this morning. Was very disappointed with turnout, but I'm hoping that it was the time I went to the polls. Other people I spoke with said there were lines, hopefully a good turnout today.
Additionally, I hope these candidates intend to clean up their d@mn signs that are posted everywhere. What an eyesore.
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
I love the column headings.
"I support Black Obama, but not Other Obama, and certainly not White Obama."
I love the column headings.
"I support Black Obama, but not Other Obama, and certainly not White Obama."
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
Irrelevant. This IS as good as it gets for them. Period. They had their come to Jesus meeting and this is what they've decided. It won't get flushed out of the system until they nominate a true believer and he either gets his *** kicked or gets elected and destroys the country. Anything beyond those two outcomes it's status quo.
Irrelevant. This IS as good as it gets for them. Period. They had their come to Jesus meeting and this is what they've decided. It won't get flushed out of the system until they nominate a true believer and he either gets his *** kicked or gets elected and destroys the country. Anything beyond those two outcomes it's status quo.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
We all know who Other Obama is...
I love the column headings.
"I support Black Obama, but not Other Obama, and certainly not White Obama."
We all know who Other Obama is...
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
The numbers are certainly not exact, but it seems like it's a reasonable approximation.
The numbers are certainly not exact, but it seems like it's a reasonable approximation.
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
Yeah, that's what I was thinking. She might do better with whites in the South particularly with the older voters in Florida. Maybe in the old industrial places like PA or OH. Otherwise whether she goes from 10 to 12% in Mississippi is sorta irrelevant in the big picture of things...
Yeah, that's what I was thinking. She might do better with whites in the South particularly with the older voters in Florida. Maybe in the old industrial places like PA or OH. Otherwise whether she goes from 10 to 12% in Mississippi is sorta irrelevant in the big picture of things...
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
In VA or NC it might matter, but if that's the battle line we've already won.
Let's be pessimists and assume a Cuban on the ticket (which happens unless Jeb wins the nomination) means FL goes red. That gets the GOP to 235 EV, 35 short. VA is another sine qua non, that's 13 for 248, 22 short. Which leaves:
OH 18
IA 6
NV 6
NH 4
So OH is also essential, and OH may be Hillary's best bet to lock down those gritty ConservaDems who have been wavering and are always threatening to bolt to the GOP.
Maybe Kasich/Rubio is their best bet. The Tea Party won't like it but Clinton Derangement Syndrome is so strong among them that they'll come out just to punish her.
In VA or NC it might matter, but if that's the battle line we've already won.
Let's be pessimists and assume a Cuban on the ticket (which happens unless Jeb wins the nomination) means FL goes red. That gets the GOP to 235 EV, 35 short. VA is another sine qua non, that's 13 for 248, 22 short. Which leaves:
OH 18
IA 6
NV 6
NH 4
So OH is also essential, and OH may be Hillary's best bet to lock down those gritty ConservaDems who have been wavering and are always threatening to bolt to the GOP.
Maybe Kasich/Rubio is their best bet. The Tea Party won't like it but Clinton Derangement Syndrome is so strong among them that they'll come out just to punish her.
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
That would be their best ticket in that Kasich wins OH presumably going away, and at some point someone will put a Floridian on the ticket and hope for the best. Having said all that, you've hit upon what's dooming the GOP. Kasich doesn't run the table that he needs in the remaining states (VA + one other, or IA + NV + NH). He didn't even compete in the primary in IA which isn't going to endear him to anybody in the general election.
Problem for the GOP generally is a spread out field. Think of it like playing Space Invaders on the old Atari system or in the arcade back when we were kids. Tough to hit the target when they're on either side of the screen instead of bunched up in the middle. GOP ticket needs to shore up South (VA, NC, FL), win in the rust belt (OH crucially) and then also go out west (CO, NV) plus maybe the Northeast (NH) or Midwest (IA) to give a cushion just in case. You can pick a Southerner (Cruz, Rubio, Jebbers!) or a Ohioan (Kasich) but that does nothing for you out west. You can put Sandoval from NV on the ticket but then there's no Rust Belt or Southern presence. Its an interesting calculation to be sure, which is why Trump oddly enough would be the best bet if he wasn't nuts. A guy not rooted in one particular region.
That would be their best ticket in that Kasich wins OH presumably going away, and at some point someone will put a Floridian on the ticket and hope for the best. Having said all that, you've hit upon what's dooming the GOP. Kasich doesn't run the table that he needs in the remaining states (VA + one other, or IA + NV + NH). He didn't even compete in the primary in IA which isn't going to endear him to anybody in the general election.
Problem for the GOP generally is a spread out field. Think of it like playing Space Invaders on the old Atari system or in the arcade back when we were kids. Tough to hit the target when they're on either side of the screen instead of bunched up in the middle. GOP ticket needs to shore up South (VA, NC, FL), win in the rust belt (OH crucially) and then also go out west (CO, NV) plus maybe the Northeast (NH) or Midwest (IA) to give a cushion just in case. You can pick a Southerner (Cruz, Rubio, Jebbers!) or a Ohioan (Kasich) but that does nothing for you out west. You can put Sandoval from NV on the ticket but then there's no Rust Belt or Southern presence. Its an interesting calculation to be sure, which is why Trump oddly enough would be the best bet if he wasn't nuts. A guy not rooted in one particular region.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
Jeb isn't rooted in a region, either. But Jeb makes John Kerry look dynamic and Al Gore look charismatic.
Jeb isn't rooted in a region, either. But Jeb makes John Kerry look dynamic and Al Gore look charismatic.
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
I just don't see anybody but Trump or Cruz being the nominee. My money's on Cruz personally. IMHO speculating on Kasich is like if we speculated on how well Huntsman would do if he was the GOP nominee.
I just don't see anybody but Trump or Cruz being the nominee. My money's on Cruz personally. IMHO speculating on Kasich is like if we speculated on how well Huntsman would do if he was the GOP nominee.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
It's speed skating. Trump and Cruz both have a real possibility of catastrophic meltdown, so the establishment sole survivor in third has a good chance just based on the probability of a wipeout. I've read on 538 (I think) that Christie has basically lived in NH but he's not getting traction and he may be out by this time tomorrow. That not only frees up moderates for redistribution, it also takes out one more critic from within the establishment battle (just think of how happy Rubio or Jeb would be to see the other quit, just to stop having to fend off their constant attacks).
It's speed skating. Trump and Cruz both have a real possibility of catastrophic meltdown, so the establishment sole survivor in third has a good chance just based on the probability of a wipeout. I've read on 538 (I think) that Christie has basically lived in NH but he's not getting traction and he may be out by this time tomorrow. That not only frees up moderates for redistribution, it also takes out one more critic from within the establishment battle (just think of how happy Rubio or Jeb would be to see the other quit, just to stop having to fend off their constant attacks).
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FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
Bush is vapid on the stump, but worse than Herman Munster or the Tin Man? Nah.
Bush is vapid on the stump, but worse than Herman Munster or the Tin Man? Nah.
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