Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

I dont think Ohio is lost at all nor is Iowa. I think we are seeing the flaw in the way 538 does their projecting. The key has always been having a larger pool of polls to average and Ohio and Iowa have so few that any time one or two come out it shifts percentages huge. He even talks about it in the chat from last weekend. The numbers just arent reliable so all you can go by is what we see first hand.

The numbers Rover is posting track with the research I did last night and I am hardly a duckies and bunnies guy about this stuff.

If Clinton wins Ohio and Iowa it's a bloodbath for Trump.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

I don't either but for some reason a lot of people believe it could be and that's enough for me to think it might be a good indicator of what's likely to happen. He may be stuck at the 42% number, and he may have a horrible electoral map BUT if the Democrats decide to stay home cause Hillary isn't good enough he could still win. And some of the early voting is indicating that some Dems are staying home.

I think the only state where they are actually down is Ohio...NC has issues (but will get a nice turnout this weekend as Rover pointed out) and Florida is trending Dem early which is why the Florida GOP is already challenging the results.

And while people "think" Pennsylvania is in play it isnt. People "think" Minnesota is in play too...it isnt. Pennsylvania has had 10 recent polls, he lost all of them...many of them significantly. To put that in perspective Iowa and Ohio have had barely 10 since September.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

If Clinton wins Ohio and Iowa it's a bloodbath for Trump.

Agreed...and I am not saying she will win just that they arent lost.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

I dont think Ohio is lost at all nor is Iowa. I think we are seeing the flaw in the way 538 does their projecting. The key has always been having a larger pool of polls to average and Ohio and Iowa have so few that any time one or two come out it shifts percentages huge. He even talks about it in the chat from last weekend. The numbers just arent reliable so all you can go by is what we see first hand.

The numbers Rover is posting track with the research I did last night and I am hardly a duckies and bunnies guy about this stuff.

"Duckies and bunnies"?

You guys could be right; I hope you are. I'm taking more of a hard methodological look at this (which makes sense since it's where my roots are). Each election lays bare deficiencies in sources and methods. This election in particular has the potential to cut the electorate differently: we may actually be seeing a realignment to the sixth (?) system: educated vs uneducated, with skilled suburban southern whites tacking to the Dems and rural southern minorities and lower income suburban northeastern whites beginning a long, long march towards the GOP. If that is so then the "plus" in Nate's Polls Plus is going to be exposed as OBE.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

To put that in perspective Iowa and Ohio have had barely 10 since September.

That's a really good point.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

"Duckies and bunnies"?

You guys could be right; I hope you are. I'm taking more of a hard methodological look at this (which makes sense since it's where my roots are). Each election lays bare deficiencies in sources and methods. This election in particular has the potential to cut the electorate differently: we may actually be seeing a realignment to the sixth (?) system which be roughly be educated/urban vs uneducated/rural, with skilled suburban southern whites tacking to the Dems and rural southern minorities and lower income suburban northeastern whites beginning a long, long march towards the GOP. If that is so then the "plus" in Nate's Polls Plus is going to be exposed as OBE.

Sorry...local radio thing. Duckies and Bunnies means you see the world through rose colored glasses and nothing bad can happen. (duckies and bunnies are cute and fun and do no harm)

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

If Clinton wins Ohio and Iowa it's a bloodbath for Trump.

AZ and GA are the marks of the bloodbath. If she wins OH and IA we're just looking at a 2008 redux (NC should come along for the ride).

And for fun, the mark of a dramatic realignment would be:

D + KS, GA, MO, AZ

R + IA, NV, WI

New purple states: UT, AK, NE, TX

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

AZ and GA are the marks of the bloodbath. If she wins OH and IA we're just looking at a 2008 redux (NC should come along for the ride).

And for fun, the mark of a dramatic realignment would be:

D + KS, GA, MO, AZ

R + IA, NV

New purple states: UT, AK, NE, TX, KY, WI

KY?

They reelected Mitch. They're lost. I don't believe North Carolina is coming back either. They were there and they went with the Governor ****wad they have now and you want me to believe they have sense? No, not me.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

(duckies and bunnies are cute and fun and do no harm)

If you've ever had to scrape a sidewalk after ducks have gone through your mind would be changed on this.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

KY?

Just going by pct of graduate degrees. They are surprisingly high (as in average), as in KS.

And that's what makes it a dramatic realignment.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Just going by pct of graduate degrees. They are surprisingly high (as in average), as in KS.

And that's what makes it a dramatic realignment.

KS?

Brownback. Nuff said. You can't fix stupidity.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

BTW Kep and Scoob, the reason I am calmer about all this is that it is playing to script almost to a "T". If you guys went back to right about the time it was clear who would be the nominees we all pretty much predicted how this would go. Hillary would lead the whole way, she would be up huge after the Convention then drop, go up huge again after the debates and then things would tighten up 1-2 weeks prior to Election Day. In the end she would win and probably by enough votes that in reality she didnt sweat much.

Things could still go south...but if the FBI BS didnt do her in I am feeling pretty good.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

KS?

Brownback. Nuff said. You can't fix stupidity.

I know, I know, but... them's the numbers.

I suppose it is possible that every person in KS without a graduate degree is a mouth-breathing Pentecostal, but...

... them's the numbers.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Scooby's original question is what states are you looking at first to predict who will win I believe. I said NH and PA. If Trump loses both, he needs to win everywhere else. NC, FL, OH, NV, IA AND win one more state, like CO or WI. He's pretty much done at that point, and I highly doubt he wins Nevada based on early voting and demographics.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

if the FBI BS didnt do her in I am feeling pretty good.

I'm worried about two ifs. That is the first one. The second one is the Other Shoe.

If Comey really was trying a bureaucratic coup, he timed it badly. The ideal time to drop the big one is either the Friday before Election Day (to hit turnout) or about 2 weeks ago (before early voting was really underway). Hitting right in the middle period minimizes his outcome unless he has something legit to spring.

If it's all just a bluff the timing doesn't make sense.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

yeah it is. you vote for these kinds of *******s

Not me. No one like that even tries to run for office where I live. Just because I don't like a person who sells US uranium mining rights to a foreign company in exchange for "donations" doesn't mean I support her opponents, you know.

Some people can say, I don't like what she did yet I will vote for her anyway, and I can respect that. Some people can say, I don't like what she did and so I won't vote for her, and I can respect that too. Some people can say, the prospect of Trump as President is so scary for me, I feel I have to vote for her despite my misgivings, and I can respect that.

But to try to tell me that she never did anything wrong? that's just denial.

Here is what The New York Times published back in January, 1996, "Blizzard of Lies." That was before saying that all the claims against Bill were untrue, before dodging sniper fire on the tarmac, before being "dead broke" when she left the White House in 2000, before taking furniture from the White House when she left that did not belong to her, before telling people in public that a spontaneous demonstration occurred while at the same time telling people in private that it was a terrorist attack,

Americans of all political persuasions are coming to the sad realization that our [then] First Lady -- a woman of undoubted talents who was a role model for many in her generation -- is a congenital liar.
....
She lied for good reason: To admit otherwise would be to confess taking, and paying taxes on, what some think amounted to a $100,000 bribe.
....
Again, she lied with good reason: to avoid being identified as a vindictive political power player who used the F.B.I. to ruin the lives of people standing in the way of juicy patronage.
....
The records show Hillary Clinton was lying when she denied actively representing a criminal enterprise known as the Madison S.& L.
....
By concealing the Madison billing records two days beyond the statute of limitations, Hillary evaded a civil suit by bamboozled bank regulators.
....
She had good reasons to lie; she is in the longtime habit of lying; and she has never been called to account for lying herself or in suborning lying in her aides and friends.

... and has still never been called to account ....

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Scooby's original question is what states are you looking at first to predict who will win I believe. I said NH and PA. If Trump loses both, he needs to win everywhere else. NC, FL, OH, NV, IA AND win one more state, like CO or WI. He's pretty much done at that point, and I highly doubt he wins Nevada based on early voting and demographics.

OK, I understand.

If I have to pick one each I'll say:

VA red: Trump wins.

FL blue: Clinton wins.

That's trying to get as close to the line as possible without having a meaningful false positive. So, for example, CA red is Trump of course but it's not close to the line; OH red is too ambiguous for the final result. In the hypothetically tightest possible race both answers would be the same state. We might have had this in 2004 with OH.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

BTW Kep and Scoob, the reason I am calmer about all this is that it is playing to script almost to a "T". If you guys went back to right about the time it was clear who would be the nominees we all pretty much predicted how this would go. Hillary would lead the whole way, she would be up huge after the Convention then drop, go up huge again after the debates and then things would tighten up 1-2 weeks prior to Election Day. In the end she would win and probably by enough votes that in reality she didnt sweat much.

Things could still go south...but if the FBI BS didnt do her in I am feeling pretty good.

Yeah, I get it. To be honest they were probably done after the Benghazi hearing. They finally had her under oath (the greatest criminal mastermind of all time) and they couldn't nail her. It's astounding the opportunity they had and the epic fail that ensued.

Then, they get another bite at the apple with the FBI director under oath. They epic fail again.

Mind numbing.

 

[French Rage]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

OK, I understand.

If I have to pick one each I'll say:

VA red: Trump wins.

FL red: Clinton wins.

That's trying to get as close to the line as possible without having a meaningful false positive. So, for example, CA red is Trump of course but it's not close to the line; OH red is too ambiguous for the final result. In the hypothetically tightest possible race both answers would be the same state. We might have had this in 2004 with OH.

You mean FL blue?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

You mean FL blue?

Yes. I'm an idiot.