Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable
My guess also is by tomorrow, Silver's Nowcast will show a race that is within the margin of error, if it were a single poll.
I was off a couple of days, but the
Nowcast is now showing Hillary with less than a 4% advantage over Trump, which as I said if it were a single poll would be within the margin of error.
She may yet pull it together, although more and more I have my doubts because now, ground game and turnout are truly the only slim hope she has. This is problematic though, because it's obvious her base is getting less and less excited by her every minute, and while ground game (and all of the other election tropes) are supposed to be important, it did not hurt Trump one iota during the primaries. While primaries are a different animal than the general election, they are still in fact elections, and many of the same fundamentals were thought to apply throughout the winter and spring, but they did not.
For a year now people have been brushing off Trump like he was an afterthought. I did it myself from the time he announced until around the Iowa caucus. By the end of February I was certain he'd win enough delegates to claim the nomination. Idiotically I held out hope the Republican party, sensing disaster, would maneuver to steal the nomination from him. But in reality the Republican party sensed something I was fearing all along, that the county is full of people naive enough or bigoted enough, to believe a racist, fascist demagogue is the answer we need in the oval office. They no longer fear the down ballot disaster some predicted.
Whether or not Clinton wins, the Senate is probably out of reach. The house, a longshot even when Clinton was doing well, is now going to be nearly as red in January as it is today. And whatever gains were thought to be made at the state level are probably all pipe dreams now as well.
The Supreme Court is important. So I guess her election still matters. Oh yeah, I forgot also about the very future of the world, so yeah, her election really does matter.