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there's a good buck in that racket.
That is what October is for
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Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes early
- Thread starter joecct
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That is what October is for
WeAreNDHockey
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
An article that shows some of the Democratic establishment is finally beginning to catch up with what has been expressed here a time or three in the last couple of weeks. I guess I have trouble understanding why my fears have been mocked here. Clinton has basically watched her formidable lead all but evaporate in the national polls and at the same time watched the same thing has happening in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, 3 "swing" states that a week after the conventions she was beginning to run away with.
Had any candidate had the structural and logistical disadvantages that Trump has carried deep into this campaign in any election in my lifetime, the result would have been a 50 state electoral college landslide, with a popular vote landslide like Nixon saw in 1972. Trump spent the final months of the spring and the first months of summer doing nothing necessary of a candidate who had a chance in a normal year. He had next to no ground game. His opponent was spending 20 times as much money as he was on advertising. He was losing the fundraising game by historical proportions. He was making more outrageous statements in a week than Sarah Palin made the entire 2008 campaign. If Bill Clinton and Bob Dole had run a similar election in terms of spending and advertising, Bill Clinton would have won 500 electoral votes and the popular vote 2-1.
When you let a 1AA team hang around for 3 quarters, this happens. If Hillary Clinton was the politician everyone around likes to say she is, this game would not be a virtual tie going into the final 15 minutes. Everybody that seems to believe that only old white men are voting for Trump need to pull their own heads out of the sand and realize the ugly truth about this country and it's electorate, and that is that it's loaded with angry, racist middle aged and young white men, its loaded with people who hold an ill-informed and irrational hatred of Hillary Clinton, it's loaded with unthinking voters of all stripes who believe there are simple solutions to any issue, and Hillary Clinton is turning out to be about half as good a campaigner as you thought she'd be.
Idiotic pundits have been awaiting Donald Trump's supposed "pivot" into something resembling presidential for months now, as if you could learn to be president in a few weeks or months. Anybody that believes that ought to let me do their brain surgery as soon as I finish reading a medical textbook. What I'm waiting for is for Clinton to pivot, you know, into a candidate who can beat Trump and leave no doubt about it. That SHOULD be possible. If she pulls her head out of her rear end anyway. If she blows this election, Hell would be too nice a place for her to spend eternity.
An article that shows some of the Democratic establishment is finally beginning to catch up with what has been expressed here a time or three in the last couple of weeks. I guess I have trouble understanding why my fears have been mocked here. Clinton has basically watched her formidable lead all but evaporate in the national polls and at the same time watched the same thing has happening in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, 3 "swing" states that a week after the conventions she was beginning to run away with.
Had any candidate had the structural and logistical disadvantages that Trump has carried deep into this campaign in any election in my lifetime, the result would have been a 50 state electoral college landslide, with a popular vote landslide like Nixon saw in 1972. Trump spent the final months of the spring and the first months of summer doing nothing necessary of a candidate who had a chance in a normal year. He had next to no ground game. His opponent was spending 20 times as much money as he was on advertising. He was losing the fundraising game by historical proportions. He was making more outrageous statements in a week than Sarah Palin made the entire 2008 campaign. If Bill Clinton and Bob Dole had run a similar election in terms of spending and advertising, Bill Clinton would have won 500 electoral votes and the popular vote 2-1.
When you let a 1AA team hang around for 3 quarters, this happens. If Hillary Clinton was the politician everyone around likes to say she is, this game would not be a virtual tie going into the final 15 minutes. Everybody that seems to believe that only old white men are voting for Trump need to pull their own heads out of the sand and realize the ugly truth about this country and it's electorate, and that is that it's loaded with angry, racist middle aged and young white men, its loaded with people who hold an ill-informed and irrational hatred of Hillary Clinton, it's loaded with unthinking voters of all stripes who believe there are simple solutions to any issue, and Hillary Clinton is turning out to be about half as good a campaigner as you thought she'd be.
Idiotic pundits have been awaiting Donald Trump's supposed "pivot" into something resembling presidential for months now, as if you could learn to be president in a few weeks or months. Anybody that believes that ought to let me do their brain surgery as soon as I finish reading a medical textbook. What I'm waiting for is for Clinton to pivot, you know, into a candidate who can beat Trump and leave no doubt about it. That SHOULD be possible. If she pulls her head out of her rear end anyway. If she blows this election, Hell would be too nice a place for her to spend eternity.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
If Hillary somehow loses, I will be extremely flabbergasted, and yes, I am aware of the stupidity of Trump's true (re: not simply "Anti-Hillary") followers. I can't stand Hillary, but Trump is indeed worse, assuming he can get anything done in office.
If Hillary somehow loses, I will be extremely flabbergasted, and yes, I am aware of the stupidity of Trump's true (re: not simply "Anti-Hillary") followers. I can't stand Hillary, but Trump is indeed worse, assuming he can get anything done in office.
WeAreNDHockey
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
Clinton's latest salvo, where she says "half of Trump's supporters fall into the basket of deplorables" is likely to signal more proof of the idiocy of too many Americans. Don't be surprised to see this remark have a Romney effect on Clinton. Proof once again that not enough people realize the true number of the very types of people she refers to.
Liberals and progressives from one corner of the country to the next want to believe people are better than that, and simply put they are not. Her comments won't fire up her base, because her base is not made up of the kinds of people who want to hear those kinds of comments. Trump supporters on the other hand are the kindo of people who eat that stuff up for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Hillary supporters don't want to believe their country is overrun with these types of people. Sure, there are some, they think. But half of his supporters? Not possible. In actuality, it probably far more than half of his supporters. My feeling is it is probably more than 75% of his supporters.
This is why I think the debates will have not be a positive for Clinton. Yes, she will come prepared with actual answers to the questions. She will offer sober responses, details, and as much as any normal politician will appear presidential. Trump will, to varying degrees, be Trump. It won't matter. This election is boiling down to this: Are there enough people who are open minded, who don't hate based on skin color, religion, accents and things of those nature, or is this country more overrun with bigots and racists than those who believe that no matter what the polls say today Hillary has this in the bag. I don't know the answer but I know the number is a lot closer than you want it to be. A lot.
Clinton's latest salvo, where she says "half of Trump's supporters fall into the basket of deplorables" is likely to signal more proof of the idiocy of too many Americans. Don't be surprised to see this remark have a Romney effect on Clinton. Proof once again that not enough people realize the true number of the very types of people she refers to.
Liberals and progressives from one corner of the country to the next want to believe people are better than that, and simply put they are not. Her comments won't fire up her base, because her base is not made up of the kinds of people who want to hear those kinds of comments. Trump supporters on the other hand are the kindo of people who eat that stuff up for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Hillary supporters don't want to believe their country is overrun with these types of people. Sure, there are some, they think. But half of his supporters? Not possible. In actuality, it probably far more than half of his supporters. My feeling is it is probably more than 75% of his supporters.
This is why I think the debates will have not be a positive for Clinton. Yes, she will come prepared with actual answers to the questions. She will offer sober responses, details, and as much as any normal politician will appear presidential. Trump will, to varying degrees, be Trump. It won't matter. This election is boiling down to this: Are there enough people who are open minded, who don't hate based on skin color, religion, accents and things of those nature, or is this country more overrun with bigots and racists than those who believe that no matter what the polls say today Hillary has this in the bag. I don't know the answer but I know the number is a lot closer than you want it to be. A lot.
bronconick
Yep, still here
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
People on this board are almost all college educated (given the USCHO name). Trump does best among non-college educated. Now check out Yahoo's comment section and you'll have a different view of the country.
People on this board are almost all college educated (given the USCHO name). Trump does best among non-college educated. Now check out Yahoo's comment section and you'll have a different view of the country.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
I was really speaking to those here who seem to defend Trump without declaring their support. Living in a small midwestern town, I am aware of Trump's support, believe me. Even here, though, much of that support is unspoken. I think the reason for that is that he has revealed himself to be selfish, bigoted, and volatile. He may appeal to people's prejudices, but around here they are not eager to own them publicly. I think there will be a lot of people in my area who pull the Trump lever and lie about it unless he does well. Thankfully, there are also a lot of well educated, social liberals here who will keep the sanity ball in bounds.
I was really speaking to those here who seem to defend Trump without declaring their support. Living in a small midwestern town, I am aware of Trump's support, believe me. Even here, though, much of that support is unspoken. I think the reason for that is that he has revealed himself to be selfish, bigoted, and volatile. He may appeal to people's prejudices, but around here they are not eager to own them publicly. I think there will be a lot of people in my area who pull the Trump lever and lie about it unless he does well. Thankfully, there are also a lot of well educated, social liberals here who will keep the sanity ball in bounds.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
We mock you because the numbers arent bearing out what you are saying. The statistical models arent on your side. You sound like everyone on Faux during the Romney run who despite the fact that every model had him losing and losing bad refused to believe it even after the election.
Nationals polls are nice to talk about and show a nice snapshot of where things are but they mean zilch. Notice while you and the pundits are wetting the bed because a few polls had them tied Drumpf hasnt flipped a single state. That includes a few states not exactly known for being bastions of liberal and non-racist actions/thoughts. 538 has the exact same map it did before the LA Times Poll. (Clinton 70% to win, with updated polls still likely to take every swing state) Drumpf still has yet to set up any infrastructure in the swing states so he is making zero headway. He doesnt have the numbers.
This isnt a case of a 1AA team hanging around and being tied, this is them being down by 20 (Drumpf was getting killed a month ago) halfway through the third and finally scoring a touchdown on an 8 minute drive so every one is pumped up! They just called every trick play they have and the BCS school is playing off because they are winning. (never a sound strategy) Sure they are back in the game but the problem is until that point they had no running attack, no passing attack and they showed no propensity to stop the BCS school. Yes they showed they CAN play but the problem is they dont have the horses to actually do it. Let me guess, every time your team gives up a TD you think to yourself "crap here we go...we are screwed!".
Trust me no one is denying how many racist d-bags are out there...many of us have been saying it for years. It isnt the Left decrying that racism is dead they fight it every day at the state level. The problem for Drumpf and the Chicken Littles is that unless all the racists move to mostly liberal communities and offset the vote Drumpf isnt going to flip any of the states that voted against Romney in the 2012 Election. And lets be honest, he is still having issues holding the old guard of the GOP (2 weeks ago he lost more of the former Bushies) and the Libertarians are going for Johnson despite his gaff.
The other thing is, all of this is completely predictable...some of us back when he won the nomination even said as much. (Rover and me for sure...possibly Kepler as well) We all said Clinton would hold decent to good leads most of the summer, the conventions would correct it but if she was up by more than a few points the media would start finding amazing polls that all of a sudden showed it a dead heat going into the debates. Racists would jump for joy and the Chicken Littles would freak out worried that things were shifting. Personally I embrace that idea, because while the media is doing that for ratings and clicks, freaking out the Left to stay interested is perfect. Right now two things can kill Clinton...a real scandal (one that people arent bored with already) and complacency of the base. This is why she should be out there speaking she needs people engaged. The numbers are on her side so dont sit back and play defense, continue to discuss the things you stand for. Put Drumpf back on his heels he does not work best under pressure
edit to add: If the media doesnt "Matt Lauer" the debates then I have zero worries. If however they basically let him stand there telling lies and at no point during or after go after him for it then all bets are off. If in their effort to be "fair" they continue the strange double standard they have going on then we are all in serious trouble.
We mock you because the numbers arent bearing out what you are saying. The statistical models arent on your side. You sound like everyone on Faux during the Romney run who despite the fact that every model had him losing and losing bad refused to believe it even after the election.
Nationals polls are nice to talk about and show a nice snapshot of where things are but they mean zilch. Notice while you and the pundits are wetting the bed because a few polls had them tied Drumpf hasnt flipped a single state. That includes a few states not exactly known for being bastions of liberal and non-racist actions/thoughts. 538 has the exact same map it did before the LA Times Poll. (Clinton 70% to win, with updated polls still likely to take every swing state) Drumpf still has yet to set up any infrastructure in the swing states so he is making zero headway. He doesnt have the numbers.
This isnt a case of a 1AA team hanging around and being tied, this is them being down by 20 (Drumpf was getting killed a month ago) halfway through the third and finally scoring a touchdown on an 8 minute drive so every one is pumped up! They just called every trick play they have and the BCS school is playing off because they are winning. (never a sound strategy) Sure they are back in the game but the problem is until that point they had no running attack, no passing attack and they showed no propensity to stop the BCS school. Yes they showed they CAN play but the problem is they dont have the horses to actually do it. Let me guess, every time your team gives up a TD you think to yourself "crap here we go...we are screwed!".
Trust me no one is denying how many racist d-bags are out there...many of us have been saying it for years. It isnt the Left decrying that racism is dead they fight it every day at the state level. The problem for Drumpf and the Chicken Littles is that unless all the racists move to mostly liberal communities and offset the vote Drumpf isnt going to flip any of the states that voted against Romney in the 2012 Election. And lets be honest, he is still having issues holding the old guard of the GOP (2 weeks ago he lost more of the former Bushies) and the Libertarians are going for Johnson despite his gaff.
The other thing is, all of this is completely predictable...some of us back when he won the nomination even said as much. (Rover and me for sure...possibly Kepler as well) We all said Clinton would hold decent to good leads most of the summer, the conventions would correct it but if she was up by more than a few points the media would start finding amazing polls that all of a sudden showed it a dead heat going into the debates. Racists would jump for joy and the Chicken Littles would freak out worried that things were shifting. Personally I embrace that idea, because while the media is doing that for ratings and clicks, freaking out the Left to stay interested is perfect. Right now two things can kill Clinton...a real scandal (one that people arent bored with already) and complacency of the base. This is why she should be out there speaking she needs people engaged. The numbers are on her side so dont sit back and play defense, continue to discuss the things you stand for. Put Drumpf back on his heels he does not work best under pressure
edit to add: If the media doesnt "Matt Lauer" the debates then I have zero worries. If however they basically let him stand there telling lies and at no point during or after go after him for it then all bets are off. If in their effort to be "fair" they continue the strange double standard they have going on then we are all in serious trouble.
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Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
This exactly describes how I feel about this election. My god, exactly. It's that mix of queasiness, fear, and irritation.
It's what John Stewart said when he was asked what team he hated the most. "No, you don't understand. I'm a Mets fan. I hate the Mets."
This exactly describes how I feel about this election. My god, exactly. It's that mix of queasiness, fear, and irritation.
It's what John Stewart said when he was asked what team he hated the most. "No, you don't understand. I'm a Mets fan. I hate the Mets."
The seemingly lack of enthusiastic crowds for HRC, should give tbe Dems cause fir concern.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
Just spend an hour reading YouTube Comments. Not even on politics -- on anything. It will make you want to build an interstellar FTL ship and leave our species to destroy itself.
It's not even funny or scary after a while, it's just depressing.
Just spend an hour reading YouTube Comments. Not even on politics -- on anything. It will make you want to build an interstellar FTL ship and leave our species to destroy itself.
It's not even funny or scary after a while, it's just depressing.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
Yeah but even the Mets make a run from time to time. Unless Hillary Clinton is The Cubs all is well
Yeah but even the Mets make a run from time to time. Unless Hillary Clinton is The Cubs all is well
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
That's the McGovern fallacy.
That's the McGovern fallacy.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
I can agree with this...the stupidity on the internet is astronomical. In some ways Drumpf is the perfect representation on the internet commentator....
I can agree with this...the stupidity on the internet is astronomical. In some ways Drumpf is the perfect representation on the internet commentator....
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
What Handy said!
Beyond that, the same people lamenting why Hillary hasn't "put the election away" (a nonsensical standard by any measure) by the 1st week of September are also posting how they believe half the country is stupid. Umm...doesn't the second point answer the first question?
People expecting a 1972 type blowout are fuking idiots, to be perfectly honest. Trump speaks for a generation. A 70 something year old generation, but he speaks for them. They have significant voting power, but they're no longer decisive like they were 30 years ago. That's the crux of this election as Handy alluded to. If Trump doesn't get back up to Romney levels on educated voters, and even the most friendly polls he's had still show him losing them, he's screwed. There's little chance non-educated whites overwhelm everybody else.
So stop p issing yourself every time Trump moves a point closer in Florida. If he truly was doing well, he'd be putting AZ and NC off the board, not losing NC in composite polling. His gains in recent weeks are the result of pollsters tightening their likely voter model too much. Mittens pollster even said the same thing, and he should know since his candidate got burned on that same mistake 4 years ago.
What Handy said!
Beyond that, the same people lamenting why Hillary hasn't "put the election away" (a nonsensical standard by any measure) by the 1st week of September are also posting how they believe half the country is stupid. Umm...doesn't the second point answer the first question?
People expecting a 1972 type blowout are fuking idiots, to be perfectly honest. Trump speaks for a generation. A 70 something year old generation, but he speaks for them. They have significant voting power, but they're no longer decisive like they were 30 years ago. That's the crux of this election as Handy alluded to. If Trump doesn't get back up to Romney levels on educated voters, and even the most friendly polls he's had still show him losing them, he's screwed. There's little chance non-educated whites overwhelm everybody else. So stop p issing yourself every time Trump moves a point closer in Florida. If he truly was doing well, he'd be putting AZ and NC off the board, not losing NC in composite polling. His gains in recent weeks are the result of pollsters tightening their likely voter model too much. Mittens pollster even said the same thing, and he should know since his candidate got burned on that same mistake 4 years ago.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
Oh, the stupid's OK, that's not Comments, it's the price of leaving the house.
It's the completely uncalled-for hate; the stone cold meanness. Allow for the 75% unfunny people trying to be funny. The rest you can tell are being themselves. That's what is demoralizing.
Oh, the stupid's OK, that's not Comments, it's the price of leaving the house.
It's the completely uncalled-for hate; the stone cold meanness. Allow for the 75% unfunny people trying to be funny. The rest you can tell are being themselves. That's what is demoralizing.
WeAreNDHockey
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
uhhh, I root for Notre Dame. OF COURSE I think that. It's been drilled into my head for about 20 years now!
Let me guess, every time your team gives up a TD you think to yourself "crap here we go...we are screwed!".
uhhh, I root for Notre Dame. OF COURSE I think that. It's been drilled into my head for about 20 years now!
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
BC flashbacks... must... hold... sh-t... together...
uhhh, I root for Notre Dame. OF COURSE I think that. It's been drilled into my head for about 20 years now!
BC flashbacks... must... hold... sh-t... together...
WeAreNDHockey
\../ \../
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
David Gordon did not destroy Notre Dame football. I am not a Cubs fan. I don't believe in curses. Inept ADs like Kevin White and Jack Swarbrick, enabled by an inept board of trustees and an inept mindset of the university president, who hire inept coaches like Bob Davie, Ty Willingham and Charlie Weis destroyed Notre Dame football. So much so that now even with the only semi-inept Brian Kelly, I still go to bed many Saturday nights in the fall wishing I still drank.
BC flashbacks... must... hold... sh-t... together...
David Gordon did not destroy Notre Dame football. I am not a Cubs fan. I don't believe in curses. Inept ADs like Kevin White and Jack Swarbrick, enabled by an inept board of trustees and an inept mindset of the university president, who hire inept coaches like Bob Davie, Ty Willingham and Charlie Weis destroyed Notre Dame football. So much so that now even with the only semi-inept Brian Kelly, I still go to bed many Saturday nights in the fall wishing I still drank.
trixR4kids
Well-known member
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
Or if you don't want to have suicidal thoughts, don't read the yahoo comment section
Or if you don't want to have suicidal thoughts, don't read the yahoo comment section
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