Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

[French Rage]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Oh snap: http://www.mediaite.com/tv/megyn-ke...medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Every woman who sees this ad will vote.

I saw that this morning and thought it was more impactful than even the ad with the line, "And you can tell them to go **ck themselves." The GFYS ad made me stop what I was doing and watch it through. The Mirrors ad was hard to watch.

Dr. Mrs. pointed out some thing interesting as we were watching last night. According to her, Trump's constant interruptions (23-4 IINM) will trigger an association in every woman's brain of THAT GUY who blusters and interrupts and mansplains. The experience of THAT GUY is universal among women, regardless of their background -- they meet him in school and business and especially in dating. THAT GUY is, after an actual physical abuser, the most hated person on the face of the Earth. And Trump is THAT GUY.

She said it's not so much that it makes the voting decision easier but that it will motivate women to get to the polls. Essentially it's like black people watching a Klansman get the nomination. Nothing's going to stop them from voting.

That's what I'm hearing from a lot of my female friends today. He's the guy that you turned down at the bar three times in a night. He's that guy...

And for the guys...

My roommate came home and she showed me a screenshot of her fantasy football lineup that included this Clinton ad:
http://awfulannouncing.com/2016/hil...mocking-trump-as-fantasy-football-player.html

Talk about precision strikes for both sexes.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Posting about the actual tightness of the polling is not a "sky is falling" act. It's data.

She is ahead and I think she's going to win, but I would REALLY like to get some godd-mn insurance runs because when you let a crappy opponent hang around bad stuff can happen.

So, your take is polls are reflective of Trump being a bit less than 50/50 to win (49/51?). I say polls are inflating his support because at this point old people are more engaged at this point as the Obama coalition takes a little longer to come along, and even with that he's still losing. Who's right? Who knows. But, consider this. IF Trump was doing so well, would he not begin to moderate his tone (but not his positions) in the hopes of expanding his lead? A man STILL trafficking in Birtherism isn't a candidate operating from a position of strength. He'd be pivoting on student loans and mandatory minimum sentencing and all that. This morning he doubled down on the weight gain of his former Miss America winner during an interview. These aren't the moves of a candidate in the driver's seat. They're the moves of a candidate seeking to max out on uneducated white male anger and to hell with the other 2/3rds of the voters. That's not a winning strategy unless you think young people and minorities are in fact lazier than everybody else and can't be bothered to vote.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

So, your take is polls are reflective of Trump being a bit less than 50/50 to win (49/51?). I say polls are inflating his support because at this point old people are more engaged at this point as the Obama coalition takes a little longer to come along, and even with that he's still losing. Who's right? Who knows. But, consider this. IF Trump was doing so well, would he not begin to moderate his tone (but not his positions) in the hopes of expanding his lead? A man STILL trafficking in Birtherism isn't a candidate operating from a position of strength. He'd be pivoting on student loans and mandatory minimum sentencing and all that. This morning he doubled down on the weight gain of his former Miss America winner during an interview. These aren't the moves of a candidate in the driver's seat. They're the moves of a candidate seeking to max out on uneducated white male anger and to hell with the other 2/3rds of the voters. That's not a winning strategy unless you think young people and minorities are in fact lazier than everybody else and can't be bothered to vote.

Do you honestly think Trump would pivot even if he was up by 20 pts? You know, for calling me whatever it is you're calling me you sure are out to lunch.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

So, your take is polls are reflective of Trump being a bit less than 50/50 to win (49/51?)

My take is right now Hillary is about 56% to win, and that she will win with roughly 51% of the votes cast between the two majors, less whatever percentage third party candidates eat (which looks like 7% now, which I assume will drop to around 5% by Election Day).

I think we are looking at 49-46-5, with Hillary getting a little headroom in the Electoral College because the states happen to break well for the Dems this time, with the Senate coming down to a toss-up. Any chance of a House run is gone, so Hillary will need to work with at least one Republican chamber.

This election is about risk mitigation -- it's shoring up the levee to prevent the flood.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Posting about the actual tightness of the polling is not a "sky is falling" act. It's data.

She is ahead and I think she's going to win, but I would REALLY like to get some godd-mn insurance runs because when you let a crappy opponent hang around bad stuff can happen.

She has a two goal lead...which as we all know is the hardest to protect

They should do with the "sniffles" what they did with Marco and his inability to talk and make it front and center. Rubio still hasnt lived down his disaster of a rebuttal to the State of the Union

Hillary and her campaign should be all over the place now, talking up the issues and re-iterating the incoherent blathering of her opponent. She should be all over the country Harry Truman style. Hell use some of his quotes they are fitting!

"America was not built on fear. America was built on courage, on imagination and an unbeatable determination to do the job at hand."


"You know that being an American is more than a matter of where your parents came from. It is a belief that all men are created free and equal and that everyone deserves an even break."


"Experience has shown how deeply the seeds of war are planted by economic rivalry and social injustice."

"These polls that the Republican candidate is putting out are like sleeping pills designed to lull the voters into sleeping on election day. You might call them sleeping polls."

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Do you honestly think Trump would pivot even if he was up by 20 pts?

The thing I have learned about Trump during this whole debacle is that he can't pivot. What we are seeing is the man himself. It is not an act. He is what he is -- a stillborn adolescent narcissist whose money has insulated him from reality for his entire life. He really believes the stuff he says. He really thinks he's brilliant, and a leader. He has no clue that the respect his inner circle and even his family has extended to him has been respect for his money, not himself.

He has no idea he is a loser.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

My take is right now Hillary is about 56% to win, and that she will win with roughly 51% of the votes cast between the two majors, less whatever percentage third party candidates eat (which looks like 7% now, which I assume will drop to around 5% by Election Day).

I think 538 is overweighting their polls...Nate seems afraid to be wrong like he was in the primaries. either that or over night a bunch of polls came in and despite what seems to be a pretty high majority of people and press thinking Hillary trounced Drumpf he somehow gained support. Sorry I dont buy that something is rotten in Denmark...I would have her 65-35 and will probably hit about 47% of the vote which will be more than enough to beat Drumpf. (if the election were today)

I think it is like Scooby always says to me about the Pairwise...it is not something that is meant to watch day to day because every little thing has repercussions minute by minute which seem illogical at the time. (like a team losing yet moving up or how a game with two teams from another conference playing to a tie could push a team off the bubble) The more you watch the crazier the numbers seem.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Do you honestly think Trump would pivot even if he was up by 20 pts? You know, for calling me whatever it is you're calling me you sure are out to lunch.

Yes, I do because he wants to be President. Trump may be unconventional, but he's not completely devoid of political sense. Kinda like how he figured out that he did in fact have to raise money to compete in the general election. Trump wasn't just interrupting Hillary because he's a jerk. He was doing it on purpose to try and throw her off her game or get her angry which would have caused bedwetting libs (not my term Kep but one in the national media's lexicon in recent weeks) to hyperventilate. For a supposed loose cannon, he does occasionally have a reason behind what he's doing.

Likewise, if he had an opportunity to cut into Clinton's base, he'd take it. You'd have to be an idiot to think otherwise.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Yes, I do because he wants to be President. Trump may be unconventional, but he's not completely devoid of political sense. Kinda like how he figured out that he did in fact have to raise money to compete in the general election. Trump wasn't just interrupting Hillary because he's a jerk. He was doing it on purpose to try and throw her off her game or get her angry which would have caused bedwetting libs (not my term Kep but one in the national media's lexicon in recent weeks) to hyperventilate. For a supposed loose cannon, he does occasionally have a reason behind what he's doing.

Likewise, if he had an opportunity to cut into Clinton's base, he'd take it. You'd have to be an idiot to think otherwise.

Then I must be an idiot because I don't agree with you on any of this and you have no evidence to support your assertion.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

5150 in progress.

Van Halen fan, eh?

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

The thing I have learned about Trump during this whole debacle is that he can't pivot. What we are seeing is the man himself. It is not an act. He is what he is -- a stillborn adolescent narcissist whose money has insulated him from reality for his entire life. He really believes the stuff he says. He really thinks he's brilliant, and a leader. He has no clue that the respect his inner circle and even his family has extended to him has been respect for his money, not himself.

He has no idea he is a loser.

Yep you nailed it, which some of us were saying from the beginning. The GOP cant control him because he doesnt give a crap about their needs...

Which is why it is doubly important people vote. The GOP Congress cant be trusted to reign him in (and The Ryan clones will pass his tax plan without a second thought and will bow to his "mandate" and do what he says) and lord only knows what psychopath he will put on The Court. If you are left of the Blue Dogs (including if you are a Blue Dog) you should want him as far away from office as possible.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

It's lucky for Trump that 40% of the country was unable to see that beatdown due to the EPA Blackout. Personally, I thought it was odd Lester Holt didn't even mention it.

I know you think you're cute and all, but I'm a little busy keeping the lights on today given what's happening in the DC Circuit right now.

Oh, and here's what's happening in Michigan.

Michigan should be able to meet federal climate standards without paying higher energy prices, but the state may need to better incentivize energy-saving programs in order to avoid power outages as coal plants retire, officials said yesterday.

They should be able to keep your lights on. But I'm making it all up.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Van Halen fan, eh?

Yes, and yes in fact that was where I learned the term.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Then I must be an idiot because I don't agree with you on any of this and you have no evidence to support your assertion.

You were an idiot long before we had this conversation Scoobs.

Moving on, I'm seeing this recurring theme out of Trump that he'll bring up Bill Clinton's cheating in the next debate. Does anybody else see how easily this is going to get thrown in his face? Isn't he on his 3rd wife and he knocked up his girlfriend and future wife Marla Maples while still married to his first wife? So an adulterer is going to go after a woman who got cheated on? Ummm....okay...

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

It's lucky for Trump that 40% of the country was unable to see that beatdown due to the EPA Blackout.

Is this some RWNJ conspiracy like FEMA camps, or something real? Never heard of this one.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Is this some RWNJ conspiracy, or something real? Never heard of this one.

It's a few pages back...

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

It's a few pages back...

Let me guess. Obama is using the EPA to cut our emissions in order to black out conservative parts of the country to prepare for Martial Law!!!1111

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Is this some RWNJ conspiracy like FEMA camps, or something real? Never heard of this one.

MaizeRage is mad at me because I pointed out that the EPA's CPP*, aimed primarily at coal powered electricity generation in the upper Midwest is a hard spot with me. They claim I want EPA shut down; I just want EPA properly overseen by Congress. They're mad that I pointed out 40% of US electricity comes from coal and that they should've shut off the debate at the 54/90 minute mark last night in support of CPP. They're mad that I could point out the direct harm to local economies that CPP will do.

The CPP is straight out of Mr. Obama's EPA. It's a wonderfully Utopian plan that real people in the real world are left to try to deal with.

Having said all that, yeah, I'm a bit owly** right now. I just got out of a board meeting dealing with these issues. Better? I'm going to a solar farm dedication later. A solar farm with huge State and Federal subsidies that still doesn't interest local investors. A solar farm that, even with the subsidies, still has an ROI of 20 years or more.


*Search the site for posts by me with "CPP" in them to see the origins.
**Should I be using the term "hawkish", or "fighting hawkish"? I'm still adapting to this new moniker thing.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Let me guess. Obama is using the EPA to cut our emissions in order to black out conservative parts of the country to prepare for Martial Law!!!1111

I wanna say no but...

(Sica explained it kinda)