Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was In)

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

Because you have people like the guys on my hockey team who will vote for trump because they identify with the business man, hate hillary because she's a woman, think trump is a cool guy, and so forth.

Picture the average American, and realize roughly 50% of the population is dumber than that. There are a ton of people who couldn't reason their way out of a paper bag, but they still vote. Emotions are running high, and people get even dumber when that part of their brain is controlling.

Hillary is the betting favorite, but Trump is only about a 2:1 underdog. There have been far bigger upsets than that.

If he is a 2:1 underdog after his convention he has failed. Normally he would be bumped to even money. After the DNC he will drop to 3:1 at best unless the DNC epic fails.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

If he is a 2:1 underdog after his convention he has failed. Normally he would be bumped to even money. After the DNC he will drop to 3:1 at best unless the DNC epic fails.

fellas. ladies.

if we have learned anything this time around, is it not to stop thinking that what you saw happen in the past is what you will see again now?

stop acting like you know the paradigm here.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

fellas. Ladies.

If we have learned anything this time around, is it not to stop thinking that what you saw happen in the past is what you will see again now?

Stop acting like you know the paradigm here.

qft

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

Case Western is a "fancypants college" now? Got it, sure.

It's the Daily Caller -- the mentally impaired child of Townhall and NRO

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

fellas. ladies.

if we have learned anything this time around, is it not to stop thinking that what you saw happen in the past is what you will see again now?

stop acting like you know the paradigm here.

Fair 'Nuff, but Handy is right that Trump needs something -- a convention bump, a vine of Bill getting a hummer from Lindsey Graham -- something.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

Fair 'Nuff, but Handy is right that Trump needs something -- a convention bump, a vine of Bill getting a hummer from Lindsey Graham -- something.

mookie already gave you scenario #1

[and there are another 109 days to go ]

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

qft

Then...once again...put your flipping money where your mouth is. It takes zero balls to just assume the worst, put something on the line if you honestly believe this. You and Maher and Mookie sound like Faux in 2012 with your "the math is wrong I AM RIGHT CAUSE REASONS!!1!!"

You are agreeing with Mookie btw, that should be a *** moment on par with Cruz being the voice of reason

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

Pretty much.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

Pretty much.

really?

as mookie hovered over and saw olberman sanity he thought it was going to question KO's sanity

then mookie was tricked into clicking it and saw KO wrote it hahahahahahahahaha "kettle, meet mr black"

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

You are agreeing with Mookie btw, that should be a *** moment on par with Cruz being the voice of reason

time and again it always comes back to mookie being right

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

Then...once again...put your flipping money where your mouth is. It takes zero balls to just assume the worst, put something on the line if you honestly believe this. You and Maher and Mookie sound like Faux in 2012 with your "the math is wrong I AM RIGHT CAUSE REASONS!!1!!"

You are agreeing with Mookie btw, that should be a *** moment on par with Cruz being the voice of reason

I have plenty of skin/money/whatever in the game. Just because I have no money in with you doesn't mean it's not riding somewhere else.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

Because you have people like the guys on my hockey team who will vote for trump because they identify with the business man, hate hillary because she's a woman, think trump is a cool guy, and so forth.

Picture the average American, and realize roughly 50% of the population is dumber than that. There are a ton of people who couldn't reason their way out of a paper bag, but they still vote. Emotions are running high, and people get even dumber when that part of their brain is controlling.

Hillary is the betting favorite, but Trump is only about a 2:1 underdog. There have been far bigger upsets than that.

Unless the guys on your hockey team were solid Dem voters until Trump came along, this is irrelevant. Trump will win the Mittens voters who haven't died since 2012, with the exception of some Mormons who haven't sold their soul due to the racism stuff and some Hispanics who could live with Romney but not with Trump putting a target on their backs.

I've said before and will keep saying it. It all comes down to math. The 2012 election wasn't "Hope and Change". It wasn't so much a referendum on Obama. It was who do you want running the country given the two choices you have before you. That resulted in a 5M vote victory for the Dems. If you can prove to me that there's millions of Obama-Trump voters out there, I'd love to see the evidence. Otherwise the rest of the analysis put out by pundits is all hooey. Either Trump finds 5-6M new voters out of a pool of old uneducated white guys which would be astounding, or the same amount of Obama voters stay home and don't care that Trump will undo everything Obama put in place. Also no new voters Sanders brought in will vote Dem either or all the new Hispanics that have registered. None of this is very likely.

Every 1% movement translates to about 1.5M votes. Trump will get his 46%, down from Romney's 47%. Hill will get her 51% and the Libs/Greens will probably double or even triple the 3rd party vote this year. None of this is enough to save the Trumpster, who's running out of time to change the race given how well known each candidate already is.


Battle for the White House

RCP Poll Averages

RCP Poll Average 44.0 41.3 Clinton +2.7
4-Way RCP Average 40.9 37.3 Clinton +3.6
RCP Electoral Map 209 164


Battlegrounds

Pennsylvania 45.5 42.3 Clinton +3.2
Florida 44.0 43.4 Clinton +0.6
Ohio 43.5 42.0 Clinton +1.5
Wisconsin 44.3 38.7 Clinton +5.6
Iowa 42.3 39.3 Clinton +3.0
Virginia 43.8 39.0 Clinton +4.8
North Carolina 44.0 42.0 Clinton +2.0
Georgia 40.8 45.0 Trump +4.2
New Hampshire 44.5 41.8 Clinton +2.7

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

(god, mookie hates it when you.....

Music to Rover's ears!!!!

EDIT: Ailes out at Fox...

 

[aparch]

There are no Biff Tannens outside that party, so how the hell is he going to get any more votes?

All he needs to do is wait out Hillary. She makes a mistake, he pounces, and there you have it: President Trump.



I'm more and more of the opinion that Trump is only running for President so he can control the White House Correspondents dinner. A man of Trump's ego can't stand to be belittled in public let alone by the POTUS. And a White House Correspondents Dinner with Trump at the helm won't be funny, light-hearted, and entertaining as they all have been for the last two decades. It would be vile, bitter, and excruciatingly painful to watch.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

I'm more and more of the opinion that Trump is only running for President so he can control the White House Correspondents dinner. A man of Trump's ego can't stand to be belittled in public let alone by the POTUS. And a White House Correspondents Dinner with Trump at the helm won't be funny, light-hearted, and entertaining as they all have been for the last two decades. It would be vile, bitter, and excruciatingly painful to watch.

That is the story, that Trump was so upset when Obama made a crack at his expense at one that was the moment he decided he was going to run.

Which if so... man, keep him away from the launch codes.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

All he needs to do is wait out Hillary. She makes a mistake, he pounces, and there you have it: President Trump.

I really hope not. I really want to have more faith in my country than that. But.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

All he needs to do is wait out Hillary. She makes a mistake, he pounces, and there you have it: President Trump.



I'm more and more of the opinion that Trump is only running for President so he can control the White House Correspondents dinner. A man of Trump's ego can't stand to be belittled in public let alone by the POTUS. And a White House Correspondents Dinner with Trump at the helm won't be funny, light-hearted, and entertaining as they all have been for the last two decades. It would be vile, bitter, and excruciatingly painful to watch.

It will have to be something big...not any of this stupid BS they have been trying to use since 1996. (or later like Benghazi) This will have to be the October Surprise of All October Surprises...like a video of her copying classified emails while blowing an Isis leader as the Benghazi attack happens while burning money she made from a Wall Street speech. None of her crap sticks and no one buys Drumpf when he says it anyways.

As Scooby always says about the PWR it is Simple Math. As of now Drumpf doesnt have the numbers or the demographics. He needs the Left and Minorities/Women to stay home...if they dont he is going to be Romneyed.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

It will have to be something big...not any of this stupid BS they have been trying to use since 1996. (or later like Benghazi) This will have to be the October Surprise of All October Surprises...like a video of her copying classified emails while blowing an Isis leader as the Benghazi attack happens while burning money she made from a Wall Street speech. None of her crap sticks and no one buys Drumpf when he says it anyways.

As Scooby always says about the PWR it is Simple Math. As of now Drumpf doesnt have the numbers or the demographics. He needs the Left and Minorities/Women to stay home...if they dont he is going to be Romneyed.

He does have the numbers if he breaks the white man vote record. Could happen with Hillary atop the other ticket.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

He does have the numbers if he breaks the white man vote record. Could happen with Hillary atop the other ticket.

That wont be enough but it will put him in position. He still needs voter turnout to drop on the Left too.

If Romney couldnt get Reagan level white numbers Drumpf wont either. Hell Cruz made it so half the Tea Party is going to question voting for him and that is half their base. And again, he is currently losing most of the Purple States and this is the convention! Christ Palin/McCain pulled close during the convention and Drumpf is at best treading water.

 

[burd]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

Battlegrounds

Pennsylvania 45.5 42.3 Clinton +3.2
Florida 44.0 43.4 Clinton +0.6
Ohio 43.5 42.0 Clinton +1.5
Wisconsin 44.3 38.7 Clinton +5.6
Iowa 42.3 39.3 Clinton +3.0
Virginia 43.8 39.0 Clinton +4.8
North Carolina 44.0 42.0 Clinton +2.0
Georgia 40.8 45.0 Trump +4.2
New Hampshire 44.5 41.8 Clinton +2.7

After a brutal recent past, Wiscovites can finally be proud of their political judgment (although having one gay senator and one rumored to be gay is also something to stand up for).

Now if we can carry Feingold back to the Senate . . . .