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Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Populi!

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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Nate Silver launched his presidential forecast today, and Clinton starts as a 1:4 favorite.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

unofan said:
Nate Silver launched his presidential forecast today, and Clinton starts as a 1:4 favorite.
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Actually he said 79%. (look a few posts before this ;) )
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

That's not racist, that's just telling it like it is.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

More Email information came up. I think we're still underestimating the hatred of Mrs. Clinton.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

unofan said:
Nate Silver launched his presidential forecast today, and Clinton starts as a 1:4 favorite.
Click to expand...

Nate's a genius and his track record proves that out. But his methodology oddly seems like a band aid approach to have his models deliver what would have been the correct outcomes in past elections regardless of methodology. He has three dimensions he's considering - averages of polls (great, it only makes sense), economic conditions, and a political experience/war chest. Including economic conditions shouldn't make much sense...because that factor should be built into the polls. If the Dems are indeed blowing the economy...wouldn't they be nearly as dinged now as they would be in November for it? On the other hand, Nate is not including political experience/war chest. if Trump has no political experience, can't run a campaign and has no war chest...isn't it likely that these impacts will show up in spades between now and November making his chances much worse than they are in the polls today?

Again, Nate will probably be right as he has been in the past...but it sounds like he's fudging the model to give Trump better odds than he would be getting. And although this will likely be the outcome, they will not be because the economy is not included in the polls today.
 
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5mn_Major said:
Nate's a genius and his track record proves that out. But his methodology oddly seems like a band aid approach to have his models deliver what would have been the correct outcomes in past elections regardless of methodology. He has three dimensions he's considering - averages of polls (great, it only makes sense), economic conditions, and a political experience/war chest. Including economic conditions shouldn't make much sense...because that factor should be built into the polls. If the Dems are indeed blowing the economy...wouldn't they be nearly as dinged now as they would be in November for it? On the other hand, Nate is not including political experience/war chest. if Trump has no political experience, can't run a campaign and has no war chest...isn't it likely that these impacts will show up in spades between now and November making his chances much worse than they are in the polls today?

Again, Nate will probably be right as he has been in the past...but it sounds like he's fudging the model to give Trump better odds than he would be getting. And although this will likely be the outcome, they will not be because the economy is not included in the polls today.
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The model is primarily based upon polls, and his model prefers state specific polls to national ones. There haven't been many state polls yet, even in swing states. Trump is likely that high right now because there's lots of uncertainty right now.

And Silver's model is actually in line with the betting markets, so it's not like he's an outlier.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Rover said:
2 minute penalty for concern trolling, Scoobs.
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Not trolling. This email thing is one of the stupidest things I've ever seen. And now the Attorney General met with Bill Clinton privately. Do these clowns like to feed the GOP and the Rush crowd new material? Why? Stop feeding the trolls and they might just go away. You keep feeding them and we'll have them forever. Remember, even though they do not have the Presidency they still control virtually everything else.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

unofan said:
The model is primarily based upon polls, and his model prefers state specific polls to national ones. There haven't been many state polls yet, even in swing states. Trump is likely that high right now because there's lots of uncertainty right now.

And Silver's model is actually in line with the betting markets, so it's not like he's an outlier.
Click to expand...

Of course, and they'll both be right again. But from a strictly methodology standpoint, integrating an external factor for the economy makes no sense when it should be already baked into polling results.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

ScoobyDoo said:
Not trolling. This email thing is one of the stupidest things I've ever seen. And now the Attorney General met with Bill Clinton privately. Do these clowns like to feed the GOP and the Rush crowd new material? Why? Stop feeding the trolls and they might just go away. You keep feeding them and we'll have them forever. Remember, even though they do not have the Presidency they still control virtually everything else.
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Scoobs, when will it penetrate the dense layers of your skull that ANYTHING will be turned into a scandal by the Goopers because they're as popular as used car salesmen and that's all they've got? Say Hillary never used private e-mail. Do you really believe it wouldn't be something else being "looked into by Congress". Say Bernie Sanders was the nominee. Do you think he wouldn't be under GOP investigation right now, with a willing and compliant press corps playing along?

So, Lynch and Clinton, who were on the same plane together, said Hi to each other. This is news because....:confused: People like you concern trolling dumb sh !t like this who ought to know better are more of a problem than the knuckledraggers themselves. Anybody who thinks there's some major conspiracy going on will latch onto it. The sane people will dismiss it. Clinton will still beat Trump by near double digits and life will go on at least until your hero Gov Walker rises up and wins the Presidency in 2020. :eek:
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

The Sicatoka said:
The paperwork you submitted requested the title "President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho". Are you amending that part of the application?
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that would be someone else's app. you can disregard that one immediately :p
 
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