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Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Populi!

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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop


From a Clinton ad in the piece:

In a volatile world, we don't need a volatile president.

That is perfect. If the GOP doesn't do the Cleveland Screwjob, that simple message wins the election.

Also, it can be extended to the GOP Congresscritters, with all their idiotic statements of the last 7 years.

A majority of Americans know the Republican party has gone insane. The key to this election is to pound that in relentlessly day after day, and the best part is the Republicans themselves will help. The Echo Chamber won't mind because their business model is turning resentment and prejudice into money, and they can do that more effectively with the GOP as the out party.

I'm starting to think our system might actually have the antibodies to fight this infection off.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

What pundidiots aren't mentioning regarding Brexit is that the US has beaten back the far right on numerous occasions over the last 25 years. Europe and the UK? Not so much. Part of this is because the US is more diverse of course but its more than that. The UK seems to be suffering from a long nostalgia trip of the old days when the Empire ruled the world, or was at least significant. Hence the overwhelming support of older British voters for leaving the EU. The last time the US gave the right control of the govt it was an epic disaster and Bush didn't campaign as a hard righty when he won in 2000. Trump's campaign is similar in that it evokes nostalgia for the "old days" (presumably the 1950's or maybe 1980's) and appeal to older voters, but its a BIG question whether enough of those are left to put him over the top.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

It should be higher. You look at the Brexit vote and the stupidity involved and I still believe Trump has a chance. Which at this point should be impossible.

The joke that Hitler could run against Jesus and still get 40% in a (R) vs.(D) matchup is based on reality.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

It should be higher. You look at the Brexit vote and the stupidity involved and I still believe Trump has a chance. Which at this point should be impossible.

Nah. Trump will get his 45% of the vote easily. A potted plant can on either side.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Nah. Trump will get his 45% of the vote easily. A potted plant can on either side.

A 8-10%ish lead is a landslide.

It should be higher. You look at the Brexit vote and the stupidity involved and I still believe Trump has a chance. Which at this point should be impossible.

Its all about the electoral college. And Trump just can't flip that many states.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

If Hillary needs a Veep, this guy still has his eligibility.

In recent years, I have spoken out the best I could about the abuse of religious scriptures to promote various forms of violence, including the death penalty, discrimination and abuse of women, and unjust resort to warfare. These are direct violations of my own faith and other great religions, which are founded on love, kindness to strangers, not judging others, justice, and resolving disputes in the least violent manner.

The cynical use of religion by groups like al-Qaeda, Da’esh, and Boko Haram has had catastrophic consequences to which the United Nations and major governments have failed to respond adequately.

In recent years, this forum has explored the setbacks experienced by women and girls as some major leaders use religion to exert control over their lives and to dominate the life of communities and families.

Drawing on these discussions, I authored a book called “A Call to Action: Women, Religion, Violence and Power,” in which I describe the almost unbelievable persistence of violence against females of all ages.

We explored how girl children face discrimination even before they are born, through sex-selective abortions and infanticide; the horrible forced marriage of young girls by the millions, the trafficking of women and girls into sex slavery, and the tragic phenomena of genital cutting and so-called “honor killings.”

The ongoing problem of sexual violence plagues almost every nation.

· 1 in 3 women face intimate violence sometime in their lives.

· Sexual assault in our American military and on our college campuses continues on a scale that is direct proof that male abuse and domination of women has become normalized. It’s a normal thing to expect.

· We ignore the fact that women are paid about 23 percent less than men for a year’s hard work.

We must also realize that women are key agents of the changes we need. Women are excluded from leadership in religion, in family and community decision-making, and in legislatures and other political offices. When half of the world’s population is not consulted on important decisions and policies, it is no wonder that so many problems persist.

Societies that exclude or permit abuse of women are more violent and warlike, while having women at the forefront of peace efforts or community dialogue tends to calm tensions and avert hostilities. We know that some of the most warlike leaders have been women, but when women are empowered in significant numbers, in the corporate world as well as in politics and in daily life, better decisions are made and more sustainable solutions are adopted.

Last year here we heard testimony from women from Colombia, Iraq, Nigeria, Syria, the United States, and other nations involved in warfare who told us that they warned of the coming crises and sought to have preventive action, but that their voices were ignored or suppressed. Where would we be today, you think, if their voices had been heard and if governments had listened to their peace efforts?

We need to amplify the voices of peacemakers and human rights defenders, especially women.

It is clear that we must embrace human rights and aggressively challenge our society’s acceptance of violence, which should never be seen as normal or as the preferred means of solving problems. But we know that this is true: The first time a problem arises in the world, the first response is, “What kind of violence would control this new problem?” But violence is now normal in our homes, communities, in our culture, in law enforcement and in foreign policy.

Here in the United States, lethal police violence and the use of the death penalty, disproportionately against African-Americans, communicates the clear message that the state may kill in the interest of public safety, ignoring far less violent means of protecting the public. The public at large responds by thinking that violence is useful in achieving peaceful objectives. That’s a contrary factor in words: Violence is useful in achieving peaceful objectives.

While defending a community or a nation with military force is sometimes justifiable or is sometimes necessary, the distinction between self-defense and excessive force against others has been undermined in the global wars on terror, drugs, and crime.

I am grateful that many of you have launched effective collaboration between citizens and government to reduce violence, advance human rights, and create economic prosperity. Determined diplomacy has resulted in the nuclear nonproliferation agreement with Iran, possibly avoiding a war, and also the new normalization of relations between the United States and Cuba. We celebrate these hopeful examples while remembering that all too often, unnecessary violence prevails.

The United States is complicit in the oppression of abusive governments when we provide weapons and financial aid to them, as is the case in Egypt, in Honduras, and other nations. And we must never forget the plight of the Palestinians.

We lose sight of the fact that violence is evidence of failure, not success. We have failed to heed signs of trouble early enough to address the underlying cause of the problem, or we are in denial about the cause of the problem. We may be too self-serving to care about it, or we seek power and are content with the situation, especially when only the other side is suffering, as from high-level bombing or the use of drones.

We cannot end or control the tide of personal, family or community violence, and definitely not terrorism, until we reduce excessive state violence and militarism.

I remember that in 1968, opposing the war in Vietnam, Martin Luther King Jr. stated it that was not possible to separate excessive state-sanctioned violence from the bloodshed in our communities. They both exist when we normalize violence. He called on us to reject violence and its cycle of destruction. The world needs to heed his call today.

We are at a turning point in history. We can choose either policies of peace and human rights or we can continue our moves toward warfare and human suffering.

This is also a time when ordinary people throughout the world are expressing fear, frustration, and anxiety about the future. Many people have lost trust in their governments as the social contract frays. But instead of allowing for constructive dialogue with the public, many governments have tightened their grip, treating journalists and regular citizens as threats to national security.

Meanwhile, governments invest far too much in the machinery of war, when investment in human rights would produce more peaceful results. Peace and prosperity are more likely when people are included and respected by their own governments.

The Arab Awakening or Arab Spring began when young people rejected systemic human rights abuses and unjust governments. The catastrophic violence that has followed is a failure of those nations’ leaders to govern justly, and a failure of the international community to help create and support inclusive peace processes and democratic institutions.

The cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan so far is nearing $1.7 trillion, (that’s 1,700 billion dollars), and global military spending is on the rise, now reaching the level that we knew during the Cold War. The manufacturing and sale of small arms, the cause of 90 percent of civilian deaths, has skyrocketed since 9/11.

The expanded use of drone warfare by the United States outside of declared war zones may constitute war crimes, according to the United Nations. Even though some dangerous terrorists are killed, they are immediately replaced, and the use of drones results in more people joining extremist organizations and may make this a choice of other nations — and perhaps terrorist groups — in the distant future — perhaps not so distant. What would we do if almost every country on earth could afford a few drones, loaded with weapons, flying over American cities?

The US made its own Brexit mistake in 1980, and for the same reasons: nostalgia, bigotry, and a yearning for a simple-minded solution.

A few people got very rich, but the rest of us have been paying the price for 36 years.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

A 8-10%ish lead is a landslide.



Its all about the electoral college. And Trump just can't flip that many states.

Agreed. As I said before, get close to the 2008 election margin of victory and the House is on a razor's edge of flipping. More than that and there's no way the almost 30 Repubs in Dem seats survive except for a few, and marginal seats will swing as well. People don't split their tickets as much as they once did.

Oddly enough, if you want a clue as to how the House will go, look at two Senate races - Grassley and McCain. If those two are winning and are up a small but steady amount throughout the fall, then I can see a situation where a lot of Republicans survive. If they are in the fight of their lives, despite their longevity and familiarity with the electorate, its going to be even harder for one and two term Congresscritters to throw off the Trump anchor.
 
Agreed. As I said before, get close to the 2008 election margin of victory and the House is on a razor's edge of flipping. More than that and there's no way the almost 30 Repubs in Dem seats survive except for a few, and marginal seats will swing as well. People don't split their tickets as much as they once did.

Oddly enough, if you want a clue as to how the House will go, look at two Senate races - Grassley and McCain. If those two are winning and are up a small but steady amount throughout the fall, then I can see a situation where a lot of Republicans survive. If they are in the fight of their lives, despite their longevity and familiarity with the electorate, its going to be even harder for one and two term Congresscritters to throw off the Trump anchor.

Of course Grassley's opponent is perhaps the only democrat older than he is. She has name recognition but isn't exactly a charismatic icon. I doubt he's in trouble, even after the crap he's pulled in a presidential election year.

The Iowa dems need to improve their candidates. This is a purple state, it's absurd that it's one state senator away from being a full on red government.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Agreed. As I said before, get close to the 2008 election margin of victory and the House is on a razor's edge of flipping.

IINM 538 estimated that Democrats need a 9-point majority in House votes to get within range of flipping it. In 2008, they exceeded the GOP in total House votes by 10.6 (!).

It really tells you how bad 2010 was for us that 10.6 in 2008 gave us an 80-seat House majority, while in 2016 it would probably be good only for 20 seats or so.

I hope the DNC has had a special task force working on 2020 to ensure that does not happen again.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Obvious politically-motivated show trial is obvious.

Republicans excluded Democrats from interviews, concealed exculpatory evidence, withheld interview transcripts, leaked inaccurate information, issued unilateral subpoenas, sent armed Marshals to the home of a cooperative witness, and even conducted political fundraising by exploiting the deaths of four Americans.

In one of the most serious abuses, Chairman Gowdy personally and publicly accused Secretary Clinton of compromising a highly classified intelligence source. Although the Intelligence Community quickly debunked his claim, Chairman Gowdy has yet to apologize to Secretary Clinton for his slanderous accusation.

In our opinion, Chairman Gowdy has been conducting this investigation like an overzealous prosecutor desperately trying to land a front-page conviction rather than a neutral judge of facts seeking to improve the security of our diplomatic corps.

A weary nation yawns, mutters "no sh-t," rolls over and goes back to bed.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

IINM 538 estimated that Democrats need a 9-point majority in House votes to get within range of flipping it. In 2008, they exceeded the GOP in total House votes by 10.6 (!).

It really tells you how bad 2010 was for us that 10.6 in 2008 gave us an 80-seat House majority, while in 2016 it would probably be good only for 20 seats or so.

I hope the DNC has had a special task force working on 2020 to ensure that does not happen again.

Not taking issue with 538 but I'm not sure they're fully baking in the Trump effect. In 2006 and 2008 GOP Reps got creamed at a far higher clip than past Presidential preferences would have suggested. I believe by 2009 there were 60 or so Dem in seats that voted GOP. Come 2010 and 2014 the GOP claimed them back, and then grabbed about 30 Dem preference seats. I'm expecting another snap back on those Dem seats. The trick is to grab 20+ of those, and then find another 10 marginal seats (or scandal tarred incumbents) to put you over the top.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Not taking issue with 538 but I'm not sure they're fully baking in the Trump effect.

They can only "bake in" what their methodology and data are scoped for. To the extent that Trump is displaying bad polling numbers relative to prior candidates, that will be reflected in their projections. To the extent that Trump is a unique breed of cat who we expect to have intangibles that inflect typical patterns, they obviously haven't captured that.

If Trump is The Mule, the Second Foundation is gonna miss him.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Of course Grassley's opponent is perhaps the only democrat older than he is. She has name recognition but isn't exactly a charismatic icon. I doubt he's in trouble, even after the crap he's pulled in a presidential election year.

The Iowa dems need to improve their candidates. This is a purple state, it's absurd that it's one state senator away from being a full on red government.

Didn't know that. We've seen what that can deliver in our neighbor to the east. With the brutal exception of TPaw, we've had a D/I government for decades and this place is like heaven (in a block of ice).
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Didn't know that. We've seen what that can deliver in our neighbor to the east. With the brutal exception of TPaw, we've had a D/I government for decades and this place is like heaven (in a block of ice).

Didn't you have Hulk Hogan as penguin emperor for a while?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Didn't you have Hulk Hogan as penguin emperor for a while?

Yes. And, Arne Carlson was a Republican. Sure he was an old school non-derp Republican but he was still a Republican.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Yes. And, Arne Carlson was a Republican. Sure he was an old school non-derp Republican but he was still a Republican.

I have a feeling "Arne Carlson" had a leg up in any election not contested against "Jan Anderson."
 
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