Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections -
FALSE, of course.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination -
FALSE, but Bernie's going to be a distant memory in another couple of months
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president -
FALSE, obviously
Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign -
TBD, but probably not
Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign -
TRUE, but see below
Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms -
TECHNICALLY TRUE, but I'll bet Billy Jo Schlob who was forced into early retirement at 52, and Tyler McArtsy Fartsy still working the Mickey D's counter five years out of college, sure as hell don't think so.
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy -
TRUE
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term -
PROBABLY TRUE, depends on your definition of "unrest".
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal -
DEPENDS, on whether you lean left or right
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs -
TBD, but probably not
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs
FALSE, the jury is still out on the long-term positive and negative consequences of Obama's foreign policy moves.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero -
FALSE, Hillary has the charisma of a wet paper bag.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero -
DEPENDS, on your IQ score.