Re: Campaign 2016 Part, let's say, X: There's a red moon rising On the Cuyahoga River
This is long and in many ways transparently self-serving for a Clintonista, however it does bring up one good point.
In recent elections, Democrats have made at least four states in the South and West lean Democratic or turned them into pure toss-ups in presidential contests: Virginia (13 electoral votes), Florida (29 electoral votes), Nevada (six electoral votes) and Colorado (nine electoral votes). While North Carolina (15 electoral votes), Georgia (16 electoral votes) and Arizona (11 electoral votes) remain Republican-leaning states, their changing demographics mean it is only a matter of time before they become blue states. A Drumpf candidacy has the potential to accelerate this political realignment in these fast-growing states.
Let's assume Drumpf v Clinton for a moment. First off, VA definitely goes to Clinton, perhaps by an absurd margin. If you are going to run a vitriolic campaign against the DC establishment, you are going to lose VA. Duh.
Likewise, CO and NV are suburban sprawl "hotbeds of social rest." They will fall even more heavily in the direction they are already tending; go blue.
FL I have no idea. FL is bizarre. It's exactly the kind of state I would expect Drumpf to do well in. They're crazy. He's crazy. Still, Hillary did well there too so call it a wash and keep it blue for now.
But the good point is that Drumpf may accelerate the liberation of those red states that have been s l o w l y turning blue. NC already escaped Dixie once before being recaptured under 2012's Fugitive Slave Act. In 2016 they should escape for good. GA is the next big prize. It's gonna happen eventually. ATL is the crown black city in the US, and as it grows and draws in more liberal blacks (and whites) GA gradually emerges from the confederate death march. And AZ -- well, no, there he's smoking crack. AZ never met a Draconian anti-immigration plank it didn't like, so if anything Drumpf pushes them back into the deep red of white supremacy.
But still, progress. Start with 2012, lose IN (which was a fluke), but add GA. For one thing, SC is then the only red state left on the Atlantic seaboard. For another, the GOP dream of roping western states like CO, NV and NM into their prison on a libertarian lie is set back at least a decade.
So even if the guy's article is a barely concealed partisan ad, I think he's right.