Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

You are agreeing with a guy who said Walker was going to win the nomination and thinks Minnesota is going Red...

I agree. The last thing anyone wants to do is agree with anything I post. I'm wrong about everything.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

You are agreeing with a guy who said Walker was going to win the nomination and thinks Minnesota is going Red...

Scooby sees cons/Goopers for what they are but overestimates their ability. Kep thinks over half the GOP is moderate but until these unseen moderates assert themselves he realizes the people running the party are insane.

Pick your poison I guess.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Kep thinks over half the GOP is moderate

You must have a reading disability. It's the only explanation.

 

[mookie1995]

You must have a reading disability. It's the only explanation.

Rover has a lot of issues

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

I agree. The last thing anyone wants to do is agree with anything I post. I'm wrong about everything.

So, you're right, then?

 

[theprofromdover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

You must have a reading disability. It's the only explanation.

He went to bu.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

You must have a reading disability. It's the only explanation.

More like its tough to keep up with your multiple personality postings. Are you the guy who thinks the GOP is insane today or the one who thinks Jebbers! is the "sane" choice for the nomination?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

More like its tough to keep up with your multiple personality postings. Are you the guy who thinks the GOP is insane today or the one who thinks Jebbers! is the "sane" choice for the nomination?

Rover: "This is a strawberry."

Cherry: "Actually, I'm a cherry."

Rover: "OMG, this strawberry doesn't know what it is!"

As for whether Jeb is sane, I think we have to go back to the old Venn diagram of Republicanism: evil, stupid, or insane. So, for example, Cheney was evil and insane but not stupid, Palin was evil and stupid but not insane, and Dubya was merely stupid.

Jeb does not appear to be insane, but because he's evil he will mouth the insane slogans the GOP demands of its candidates. Cruz, on the other hand, seems to be evil and insane but is clearly not stupid -- Ted's got a vision for this country and it's a hellscape, but he isn't muddling about, he's got a plan.

I've already said that Jeb was my odds-on favorite for the nomination. He's turned out to be a horrible politician so my prediction looks like it's going to fail. But I gots nowhere else to go, since the obvious next man up, Rubio, is so vapid he makes Reagan look like a scholar. In another cycle he'd be perfect, but this time the GOP base wants blood. They want the Nuremberg Laws, so I don't know who they're eventually going to settle on.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

I think Rover is right that Calgary Ted gets it...everything else though he is out to lunch as per usual

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

They want the Nuremberg Laws, so I don't know who they're eventually going to settle on.

Really? I think tOtherDon has it locked up. He can do or say anything and the base just eats it up - the more outrageous, the better, because it just goes to show how out of whack the mainstream is that such a "common-sense, logical" comment should seem outrageous.

My prediction is that he will get the nomination, and then proceed to get one of the lowest percentage of the popular of all time - I'm talking on par with Cox losing to Harding by 26 percentage points.

Congratulations, President Clinton.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

I think Rover is right that Calgary Ted gets it...everything else though he is out to lunch as per usual

Cruz is behind by 8 in IA and 17 in NH. To put that in perspective, Bernie is behind by 9 in IA and 4 in NH.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Really? I think tOtherDon has it locked up. He can do or say anything and the base just eats it up - the more outrageous, the better, because it just goes to show how out of whack the mainstream is that such a "common-sense, logical" comment should seem outrageous.

My prediction is that he will get the nomination, and then proceed to get one of the lowest percentage of the popular of all time - I'm talking on par with Cox losing to Harding by 26 percentage points.

Congratulations, President Clinton.

Trump winning the nom is the dream scenario. I agree he would lose badly, though let's be serious, 45% of the electorate is wired to vote R if Jesus is running as the D.

Popular vote margin of the last 6 elections:

92 D +6
96 D +9
00 D +1
04 R +2
08 D +7
12 D +4

Still, Trump could lose by 10. That would be significantly enough hurt the GOP nationally -- all the toss-up seats to give the D a solid 55-45 or so Senate majority, many governorships, a few state houses to lay the groundwork for undoing the GOP voter suppression nonsense, plus enough middle class districts to flip the House. Not to mention that a 12-year run in the WH with a D majority on the back end would mean full control of the federal bench.

But on the other hand... Cruz is the nightmare scenario. he'd be an underdog, but the possibility that a genuine National Front regime could take power, with an able and highly ambitious leader, is terrifying.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

While I'm looking good backing Calgary Ted and my 25 bucks that I sent him earlier this year is money well spent, I have to say he pales in comparison to The Donald. Clearly Trump is driving every conversation on the GOP side to an extent I've never seen in a primary for either party, although I'll confess I was a bit young when the 1980 contest was raging so not sure about Ronbo leading up to the nomination. That's a knock on Cruz and usually the strategy of "follow the leader and hope to pick up enough crumbs" doesn't inspire confidence in a candidate.

Problem for the GOP nominee is world events. Same issue that effecting Sanders to some extent. If the Gooper candidates can't handle tough questions from debate moderators, who envisions them dealing with ISIS? Or Putin? Will tax cuts for the 1% help defeat terrorism??? Having spent 7 years telling us electing a one term Senator with little experience was a mistake, we're now supposed to turn around and elect......a one term Senator (Cruz, Rubio) or a guy with no foreign policy experience (Trump).

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

While I'm looking good backing Calgary Ted and my 25 bucks that I sent him earlier this year is money well spent, I have to say he pales in comparison to The Donald. Clearly Trump is driving every conversation on the GOP side to an extent I've never seen in a primary for either party, although I'll confess I was a bit young when the 1980 contest was raging so not sure about Ronbo leading up to the nomination. That's a knock on Cruz and usually the strategy of "follow the leader and hope to pick up enough crumbs" doesn't inspire confidence in a candidate.

It's far more than Reagan. It's easy to forget that Reagan wasn't "REAGAN!!!" until late in his first term. Reagan during the GOP nomination in 1980 was not the "Morning in America" Hollywood blockbuster that he was marketed as during the middle four years of his presidency. In the beginning, he was kind of an infomercial -- he seemed elderly, and that trademark whimsy that was later marketed as a positive came across as a kind of myopic dopiness. Reagan actually won that nomination on, as laughable as it seems now, content. He was a mouthpiece for an economic theory that fooled a lot of people because they hadn't seen it in action yet. Of course, by the time it had changed America, it was too late.

 

[unofan]

Cruz is behind by 8 in IA and 17 in NH. To put that in perspective, Bernie is behind by 9 in IA and 4 in NH.

Cruz could get zero in NH and it wouldn't matter; he's not gunning for the new England republican votes. He needs a decent showing in Iowa and then a strong SEC primary run.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

It's far more than Reagan. It's easy to forget that Reagan wasn't "REAGAN!!!" until late in his first term. Reagan during the GOP nomination in 1980 was not the "Morning in America" Hollywood blockbuster that he was marketed as during the middle four years of his presidency. In the beginning, he was kind of an infomercial -- he seemed elderly, and that trademark whimsy that was later marketed as a positive came across as a kind of myopic dopiness. Reagan actually won that nomination on, as laughable as it seems now, content. He was a mouthpiece for an economic theory that fooled a lot of people because they hadn't seen it in action yet. Of course, by the time it had changed America, it was too late.

And it was especially seductive because Reagan had good timing in terms of the economy - it would have been easy to believe (I was 10 in 1982) that the 1980s recovery from the malaise of the '70s was because of Reagan's new economic policies. In reality, his ideas simply rode the natural wave of economic recovery all the way to credibility - as you say, their acceptance *followed* the economic recovery, rather than *leading* it. (and yes, I still think that Clinton's economic prowess is similarly over-estimated due to the dot com boom)

 

[mookie1995]

And it was especially seductive because Reagan had good timing in terms of the economy - it would have been easy to believe (I was 10 in 1982) that the 1980s recovery from the malaise of the '70s was because of Reagan's new economic policies. In reality, his ideas simply rode the natural wave of economic recovery all the way to credibility - as you say, their acceptance *followed* the economic recovery, rather than *leading* it. (and yes, I still think that Clinton's economic prowess is similarly over-estimated due to the dot com boom)

Volker was pumping interest rates to kill inflation early in reagan's term. Economy blew chunks. Dems took a lot of house seats (though tip was still speaker and in charge after 1980) if I recall.

Ronnie woulda been hard pressed if there was a presidential election that year.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Cruz could get zero in NH and it wouldn't matter; he's not gunning for the new England republican votes. He needs a decent showing in Iowa and then a strong SEC primary run.

Agreed and of all the candidates not named Trump his strategy seems the most plausible. Due to current expectations though he's going to need to win or finish 2nd in Iowa. NH is an afterthought as the Establishment struggles to the death (Jebbers! Kasich Christie Rubio). Even Rand Paul will get a 5% showing in a sorta libertarian state. Since Trump isn't fighting for those voters, he's sitting pretty at 30-40% while everybody else splits their vote.

The problem for Cruz is if he loses Iowa not to Carson but to Trump. That's a win on Cruz' turf, and since he won't compete in NH South Carolina becomes a must win state, but again he's vying for the same pool of voters as Carson while Rubio and Bush fight over the rest of the non-Trump vote.

Trump's best friend is that his base is solid, while in every state the rest of the states there's multiple candidates after the same pool of voters (Establishment in NH, next door neighbors and fundies in SC, regional candidates + fundies in SEC primary). I think NH will clear the field a little (Kasich, Paul, maybe Fiorina) but that's the low hanging fruit with minimal impact on the race. No reason for the Big 4 (Trump, Carson, Cruz, Rubio) + Bush to not take it to the SEC primary, which could be inconclusive.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

And it was especially seductive because Reagan had good timing in terms of the economy - it would have been easy to believe (I was 10 in 1982) that the 1980s recovery from the malaise of the '70s was because of Reagan's new economic policies. In reality, his ideas simply rode the natural wave of economic recovery all the way to credibility - as you say, their acceptance *followed* the economic recovery, rather than *leading* it. (and yes, I still think that Clinton's economic prowess is similarly over-estimated due to the dot com boom)

Reagan's massive defense buildup also propped up the economy as IIRC almost all defense manufacturing is done in the US. That why IMHO Clinton's economy was more "real" than Reagan's. 1) he wasn't borrowing money to finance tax cuts, and 2) he wasn't relying on a massive Pentagon budget to create jobs.

Putting those two aside though, the biggest jobber of all during that period was Alan Greenspan. I had the pleasure of being in B school during the 90's and what you learned was if the sun came out it was because Greenspan raised interest rates, and if it rained it would have been worse if Greenspan hadn't raised interest rates.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Cruz could get zero in NH and it wouldn't matter; he's not gunning for the new England republican votes. He needs a decent showing in Iowa and then a strong SEC primary run.

Fair point. In SC he is currently 17 behind, in FL, 22.